Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Increasing mid clouds this morning over western Nebraska with
surface trough over the eastern plains of Wyoming and Colorado.
Surface high pressure centered over Winner. Light southerly winds
will move east out of the Panhandle as the surface high moves east
and the surface low becomes more organized and deepens over eastern
Colorado as the upper low moves out of the Great Basin today.
Fairly strong moisture advection across the southern plains.
Dewpoints increasing into the 40s. Mid level instability increasing
through the afternoon. Have included Isolated T in the forecast with
better chances after 18z when better forcing moving across southwest
Nebraska and heating of the day. Highs today again in the 40s north
and around 50 south. Temperatures tonight slightly warmer with cloud
cover and southeast flow. Some areas of mixed precipitation north
again tonight after midnight with some changeover to all snow.
Accumulations not widespread and less than an inch over northern
Sheridan county by sunrise. There is some question with the northern
extent of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Little changes have been made to the going forecast as a continued
active pattern remains in place for the end of the week and through
the weekend. The main concern through the weekend will be the
precipitation type associated with the systems moving through the
central Plains. While confidence is fairly high that precipitation
will occur, uncertainty lies with the change over from rain to snow
and how much accumulation some locations will see. Colder air will
filter in from the north allowing rain to switch over to snow during
the overnight and early morning hours. Current model trends are
indicating cold air (below freezing) reaching as far south as the I-
80 corridor for both Friday and Saturday nights. Therefore, snow is
in the forecast for all locations mainly north of I-80. How quickly
the colder air can push in and change the precipitation type will
greatly influence how much snow accumulation will occur. At this
time, the better night for accumulating snow will happen on Saturday
night as colder air will be in place allowing a quicker change over
to snow. Accumulations could range from a half inch to 1.5 inches
south of an Imperial to O`Neill line. For temperatures, highs in the
40s should be expected on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the low
50s on Sunday.

Weak high pressure builds into the region on Monday, bringing a dry
period to the region. After several days of temperatures in the 40s
and low 50s, temperatures return to the low 60s on Monday.

Active weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday as a series of
shortwaves move southeastward across Nebraska. With plenty of warm
air moving into the region, precipitation will likely be all rain.
Highs continue to be in the 60s through mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

VFR is expected all areas through 09z tonight. The short range
models suggest an area of fog will form 10z-14z across the Nrn
Sandhills. The mechanism for the fog appears to be light winds and
strong radiational cooling.

The models suggest VFR cigs with -RA 15z-19z Thursday across Swrn
Neb south of I-80. MVFR cigs in rain should develop across Swrn
Neb from 20z onward and spread north into the Cntl Sandhills
Thursday evening. Areas of IFR in low cigs/vsby/-RA would likely
develop across the Sandhills Thursday evening.




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