Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
FXUS63 KLBF 272347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
547 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Upper level disturbance is currently tracking northeast across the
area, with PV anomaly located in southeast Colorado. Moisture has
increased rapidly ahead of the system across central and eastern
Nebraska, with dew points rising into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Enough instability has developed just ahead of the cold front to
support scattered surface based thunderstorm development. Some hail
up to nickle size has occurred across Frontier county, and some
small hail is possible across Custer, Wheeler and Garfield counties
through early this evening. Otherwise a band of decent mid level
frontogenesis is located across western Nebraska, which is helping
to produce a band of rain. Expect this band, as well as the
aforementioned convection farther east, to quickly move northeast
and exit the area by late this evening. Otherwise the other story
will be the strong northwest winds that will develop Monday as
strong surface low pressure slowly moves north-northeast across
eastern South Dakota. Bufkit sounding data supports sustained speeds
of 25 to 30 MPH with gusts locally to 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The closed 500 mb low will move slowly from southeast North
Dakota Monday monday night into southwest Minnesota Tuesday. Wrap
around light snow is possible on the southwestern periphery of
the precipitation area, with the higher pops from 40 to 50 percent
near the South dakota border. The highest likely pops near 60
percent are placed across the Pine Ridge into northwest Cherry
county. This will be the favored location where light snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible. This system will
bring windy conditions Tuesday as 700 mb heights are rather
tightly packed and breezy conditions into Wednesday.

The low pressure system to move slowly from southern Minnesota into
the western Great Lakes Region Tuesday night into Wednesday with
a long wave trough digging south across the the Southern Plains
into the middle Mississippi Valley. Snow chances will diminish
across the north and end by Wednesday morning. This amplified
northwest flow aloft persisting across western Nebraska to bring
colder temperatures with highs from the low 30s parts of the
north central to the upper 30s southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Friday, even colder with upper 20s to lower 30s with 850 mb
temperatures of -5C to -8C. A gradual warmup Saturday and Sunday,
reaching the lower to mid 40s by Sunday. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday through Sunday as an upper trough digs
southward across the Great Basin.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

A strong upper level low will lift northeast into the eastern
Dakotas over the next 24 hours. Though mainly dry conditions and
VFR CIGS are expected. Strong westerly winds are expected on
Monday. Winds could gust in the 30 to 40 KT range from the west on
Monday afternoon. Ceilings will be in the 7000 to 20000 FT range
at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals tonight. Some limited clearing
is possible at the KLBF terminal on Monday afternoon, with broken
to overcast CIGS likely at the KVTN terminal well into the
afternoon hours on Monday. Winds will diminish after sunset on
Monday afternoon.




LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.