Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
354 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

There are only minor changes to the temperature forecast. The RAP
shows the plume of 40s dew points being shunted east after sunrise.
A weak cold front moves into Nrn Neb this morning limiting highs to
the upper 70s to around 80 across the north. Deep vertical mixing
south of the front develops this afternoon and this should produce
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sfc winds will become northwest ahead
of the front also providing a downslope component to the diurnal
heating process. Some cirrus will blow off the Colorado Front Range
but the GFS suggests this will more scattered than overcast.

Pacific high pressure backs completely through the forecast area
tonight. Lows are still the 30s and h850mb temperatures
fall to 15C which is very mild.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

A Pacific cold front crossing the area Sunday night will usher in
cooler air and somewhat higher humidity for Monday, which will
alleviate the fire weather concerns. As mentioned it will be cooler,
with highs ranging from the mid 50s across northern Nebraska to near
70 degrees across the far southwest part of the state.

The first in a series of weak disturbances ahead of a deepening west
coast trough, will cross the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Models have been indicating a strong band of mid level frontogenesis
and precipitation with this first disturbance. The GFS and GEFS mean
place the narrow band of precipitation across northern Nebraska,
with the SREF and ECMWF showing a similar scenario. Will carry the
highest pops across that area, tapering to the south. For now will
keep a mention of just rain and snow, but sounding profiles do hint
that some sleet could mix in. As far as snow accumulation, not much
expected at this time, and would mostly be on grassy surfaces due to
temperatures in the 31 to 33 degree range late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. Later Tuesday highs will climb into the lower
40s across northern Nebraska with lower 50s across far southwest

The next disturbance arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday with
a good chance for more rain and snow shower activity. It will
continue to be cool, with Wednesday highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The weather gets interesting Thursday into Friday, as a potent storm
system and upper level trough move east across the central portions
of the country. There continues to be some disagreement among the
various models, but increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms
appears likely Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Some
wet snow cannot be ruled out late Thursday night into Friday
morning across portions of the western high plains. System will
move east of the region later Friday, with a dry day expected


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Main forecast challenge tonight involves LLWS which has been
continued in the forecast as current VAD winds from area 88Ds show
50kts at 500m or better. Pressure falls located from northern NE
into the Dakotas allowing southerly low level winds to bring in
some low level moisture. Some thought earlier of low clouds or fog
in the southwest portion of the state but confidence on this has
lowered even more with latest model runs. Have included a tempo
group for light fog in the KLBF TAF toward sunrise but widespread
fog not expected. Otherwise gradual shift in the winds from south
to west then north by Sunday eve.


Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The fire weather forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction
and a three blend of the HRRR...RAP and HRRR EXP models which were
very dry and deeply mixed. This lowered dew points into the 20s and
raised gusts to 25 to 30 mph...well within Red Flag criteria.

A weak cold front will drift into Northern Nebraska and deep
vertical mixing will occur south of the front where the Red Flag
warning is in place. Conditions will be quite favorable for the
spread of wild fires. In fact a fire broke out around midnight near
Lake McConaughy and although sfc winds were light...the fire was
able tap into a 40 kt low level jet and spread north away from the

The RAP model indicates winds at 700mb will increase to 30Kt this
afternoon and the deep mixing should be able to pull gusts down to
the sfc.

Cooler and more humid weather is expected Monday and beyond with
rain in the forecast through Friday.


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-210-219.



LONG TERM...Taylor
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