Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 160430
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD STRONG LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ACROSS THE LOWER 48...A JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...ESEWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS JET STREAK WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF THE US AND
CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOTED OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY INTO SWRN KS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WAS LOCATED
OVER SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BROAD SHIELD OF
STRATUS WAS PRESENT FROM WESTERN KS INTO SERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 60S AS OF 2 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EXPECT A RISE IN DEW PTS ALONG
WITH THE SPREAD OF STRATUS NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE A SLIGHT EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS ANTICIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR STRATUS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST WERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE
COULD RESULT IN SOME NEAR SFC MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...COMPARED TO RECENT COLD NIGHTS...DUE TO
THE INCREASING CLOUDS TO HELP BLANKET THE AREA.

TOMORROW CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST.
COOLEST IN THE EAST AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CYCLE
AROUND THE HIGH AND CLOUDS LAST TO CLEAR. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WEST...AND CLOSER TO 70 IN THE EAST. IF CLOUDS LIFT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN ZONES...HIGHS IN TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF STRATUS TUESDAY AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT CAN BURN OFF...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. THE LATEST MET
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING. HOWEVER THE NAM12 AND GFS FROM
THIS MORNING RETAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH DOESN/T FAVOR AN ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS SETUP FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CLOUD COVER
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WERE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...WAS RELATIVELY LARGE. LOOKING AT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
NAM SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING...THE GFS SOLN DEVELOPS SOME LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WEDS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM DISPLAYING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEPICTED
IN THE GFS SOLN...THINKING HERE IS THAT THE MAV GUIDANCE WAS TOO
WARM FOR WEDS AND WEIGHTED THE HIGH TEMP FCST TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDINESS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOG. TYPICALLY WITH THIS
SETUP...FOG FORMS ON THE ADVANCING EDGE OF THE STRATUS. ATTM...THE
LOCATION OF THIS ADVANCING EDGE IS UNCERTAIN BASED ON DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND...INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG. IN
ADDITION TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA.
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...DEVELOP A NICE AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT WITH LI/S OF -4 TO -6 ACROSS SERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY IS A
RESULT OF INCREASED MID LEVEL H70 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.
INHERITED FCST HAD THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
DELAY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO EXPAND COVERAGE NORTH
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EAST ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST...WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IN
THE OUTER PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ON
FRIDAY...A STRONG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WAS CONCERNED THIS MORNING WITH
HEAVY RAIN...AS THE 06Z GFS FROM LAST NIGHT LIFTED THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THIS HAS SINCE SLOWED AND
SHIFTED SOUTH INTO KANSAS. IF THE FRONT CAN PASS THROUGH HERE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THIS SOLN SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ONGOING FCST HAD A DRY FRIDAY
WITH PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS REMAINS ON TRACK GIVEN THE LATEST
GFS AND EC SOLNS. DRY CONDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE STRATUS IN
KANSAS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF ADVANCING NORTHWARD...AND
CEILINGS HAVE YET TO DROP BELOW 3000 FEET OR MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE
UNWOUND THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUD IMPACT AT KLBF AND HAVE COMPLETELY
REMOVED AT KVTN. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT NOW APPEARS THAT
THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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