Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER






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