Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 020900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS MT INTO THE
DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND WRN KS. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN CNTRL AND SERN
WY INTO WRN CO. A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN
SCTRL MN THROUGH CNTRL CNTRL IA INTO NW MO. .

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE PACIFIC NW. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 30C ACROSS SWRN SD...WRN NEBR...INTO ERN CO AND
FAR WRN KS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WEST
OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10
MPH WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND PROMOTE DEEP MIXING. THE NAM
BUFR SOUNDING AT VTN INDICATES DEEP MIXING TO 600MB. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SCTRL SD
INTO NCTRL NEBR. CITIES SUCH AS GORDON...VALENTINE...AND AINSWORTH
ARE ALL FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES. REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...SFC DWPTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN THROUGH OGA LINE. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100...MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20
PERCENT. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF WIND GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 20 MPH...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.

THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
CHADRON TO VALENTINE IN AN AREA OF THE STRONGEST HEAT RIDGE AND WARM
FRONT. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM WAS THE ONLY CONVECTIVE MODEL TO INDICATE
THIS POTENTIAL SO WILL JUST MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WRN NEBR. LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 50S SWRN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO NEAR 70 BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY AS A
FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND QUICKLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW FROM
OREGON/IDAHO AREA SATURDAY TO SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY
LABOR DAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THE
PAST 24 HRS. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SURFACE FEATURES...AND BOTH HAVE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ENTERING NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING AND CROSSING
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE SECOND WAVE COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ONE CONCERN IS A STRONG EML
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING AT ALL...BUT
THE NAM HAS SOME PRETTY DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE...AND FEEL AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLING ALOFT.

AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND PERIOD...REALLY
CAN/T JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN REASON FOR
KEEPING POPS LOW IS THAT OUR REGION WILL LARGELY BE REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. CANNOT COMPLETELY
REMOVE POPS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO THE COLD
FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SATURDAY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...THIS WILL
RELAX SOME BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LABOR
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ONE SHORT RANGE MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER 17Z. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
THREE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT. THEREFORE...NO THUNDER WILL
BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 8-12KT LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER



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