Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261728
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UNSEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH READINGS HAVE ROSE NICELY
AT NOONTIME WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. FORECAST UPDATED TO BUMP
FORECAST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE UPPER 80S WEST AND MID 90S IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
FURTHER THE EFFECTS OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN OUR WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

GONE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING AGAIN FROM BROKEN
BOW TO NORTH PLATTE AND EAST. HAVE A SHORTER DURATION THAN
YESTERDAY. DEW POINT SPREADS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH SOME WINDS FALLING
TO CALM.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALREADY SOUTH WINDS AT 20 WITH
GUSTS TO 31 AT PINE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS PATTERN WITH 21C OR HIGHER TO THE WEST OF A VALENTINE TO
HAYES CENTER LINE. GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE BY AT LEAST 5F
YESTERDAY. MODELS FEEDING ON HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN IOWA WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOW 80S ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND EAST BUT BRING 90S INTO WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF. HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN
CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR PRECIPITATION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE AND WORK
WITH PLENTIFUL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER AS THERE IS ~12
HOUR DIFFERENCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS ON WHEN QPF INVADES OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND FAVORED
ATTM AS THE MODEL HAS SHOWN THE BEST CONSISTENCY THUS FAR. HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS REALLY RAMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FOR THAT
MATTER AMOUNTS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LEAD
WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS
PWATS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE GREATLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE 26.00Z GFS IS SUGGESTING OVER AN 1.50" AT KLBF BY 06Z
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A GREATER THAN 50KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM.

LEAD UPPER WAVE ADVANCES SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
NORTHEAST. BEYOND THIS POINT IN TIME THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
COMPARED TO THE RUNS 12 HOURS AGO.  THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK.  THE EC IS A BIT MORE BROAD
AND SLOWER WITH THE SOLUTION...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
QUICKER.  EITHER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR AN ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND QPF FOR THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH LIKELIES NOW IN THE FORECAST...THEREAFTER MOST OF THE
FA IS DRY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...BUT POP CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY /TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING DIFFERENCES/
WITH CHANCE WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENT IS
LOW...BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL PERIODS OF SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
ENERGY FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCED STORMS.  WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
WORDING OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A LIGHT QPF
SIGNAL BRUSHING OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING/ AS A WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS IS THE FIRST RUN FROM THE MODELS THAT DEPICTS THE QPF
THIS FAR WEST /INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES/...SO FELT THAT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST
YET....BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO READINGS
IN THE 70S AND EVEN 60S NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
COOL THE CWA.  LOWS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL TO THE 40 BY
NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 30S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR VISUAL FLIGHT RULES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KECK
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK






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