Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151741
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A blend of the HRRR, HRRRexp and RAP models plus bias correction was
the basis for the temperature forecast today. Highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s are expected with full sun. The models quickly develop a
thermal ridge on the cntl and nrn High plains. This warming aloft
will cause h850mb temperatures to rise into the high single digits
by late afternoon.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
30s tonight. H850mb temperatures rise to around 10C and a strong sfc
inversion should develop with light west winds, clear skies and
reasonably dry air still in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Warm and dry conditions associated with a building flat upper level
Central Rockies ridge will prevail for much of the upcoming work
week.  Temperatures will warm and remain well above average with
high largely in the 70s through Friday and lows warming from the 30s
and 40s Tuesday morning into the 40s and 50s mid week and beyond.
The models point to a dry backdoor front Wednesday, but temperatures
will only cool a few degrees with the front.

The next shot at precipitation comes early next weekend as a trough
of low pressure advances across the western Conus.  Neither the GFS
or ECMWF suggest a widespread wetting event, but there will be
showers in the area.  Both point to a cooldown with temperatures
trending back to near normal.

Will need to monitor the drying trend of our 1 hour fuels this week
as a warm and dry airmass will be in place across the Central Plains
through at least early Saturday.  The recent wet spell of early Fall
has left area fuels 2-3 weeks behind the typical climatological
curing period, but recent freezing temperatures have largely ended
the growing season. As of tonight, RFW fuel criteria is questionable
for most areas across the CWA, meaning a lot of green remains, large
range fire growth is not anticipated, for now, but given the rapid
response of 1 hour fuels to changes in atmospheric moisture, rapid
curing would be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Quiet aviation concerns are expected over the next couple days.
High pressure will remain firmly in place across the western and
central US resulting in VFR conditions across north central
Nebraska. Winds will remain under 10 knots for the remainder of
Sunday and Monday morning. The exception will be across KVTN where
gusts could rise to near 20 knots Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Kulik



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