Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142010
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
210 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Clearing has taken place over the past couple of hours and
temperatures were warming into the upper 50s to low 60s. Good
south to southwest flow in the lower levels and broad area of
southwest flow aloft. Much warmer 850 mb air is advecting into the
area with this trend expected to continue into tonight.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus tonight and Thursday,
with some wild temperature and weather swings in the long term.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

For tonight, very mild conditions are expected tonight with lows
in the 50s. 850 mb temps in the teens will continue to advection
eastward into the area. Winds will stay south to southwest
tonight. With the warm start to the day on Thursday, we are
looking at temperatures getting into the low to mid 70s across the
area. Some scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible during the day.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A cold front is expected to begin pushing into the area Thursday
evening. There is enough ML CAPE for the mention of isolated
thunder for the early evening along and ahead of the front.
Precipitation coverage should increase during the overnight hours,
with decreasing thunder chances. Temperatures will eventually drop
into the mid 20s over central MO to the upper 30s over south
central MO during the night and some light snow will be possible
on the tail end of the precipitation.

High pressure will move into the area on Friday with much cooler
temperatures expected. The high will shift eastward on Friday
night with a return of low level warm advection. Models continue
to show precipitation moving into southern MO ahead of the next
shortwave late Friday night into Saturday. There may be a brief
period of light snow (mix), but should change over to rain on
Saturday morning as warmer air moves in.

After another brief lull in precipitation, broad southwest flow
aloft, shortwave energy and better Gulf moisture will lead to an
unsettled period between late Sunday night and Tuesday. Have added
some thunder to the area based on ML CAPES during the time period.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

IFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions for the rest of
the afternoon across the area. Southwest winds will also increase
and become gusty by afternoon and early evening. Low level wind
shear will be possible at all TAF sites Overnight. A MVFR or IFR
deck will push back north into the area overnight and early
tomorrow morning, primarily affecting the JLN terminal.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield



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