Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1056 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A brisk upper level zonal flow will remain over the region through
tonight. A surface ridge axis will slide east of the area today with
winds gradually turning around to the southeast. Dry conditions
are expected with some high cloudiness. Temperatures look pleasant
with highs ranging from the lower and middle 50s across the
eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s along and west of the I-49

Low level moisture will then begin to increase across the area
tonight as southeasterly surface winds increase and become
locally gusty. The setup appears to support some drizzle potential
as the low levels begin to saturate and weak lift develops. We
could also see a few light showers as models indicate weak amounts
of upright instability. Regardless, precipitation amounts look
very light. Temperatures tonight may actually steady off or
slowly rise after midnight due to those increasing southeasterly
winds. Lows should range from around 40 degrees across the eastern
Ozarks to the lower 50s along and west of the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Friday then looks windy as surface low pressure deepens across
eastern Colorado. We will have to watch western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas for Wind Advisory potential, especially if the
GFS/MAV wind forecast pans out. If those areas were to hit
criteria, it would likely be for sustained speeds of 30 mph as
mixing and momentum transfer should tend to be limited.

Meanwhile, low level moisture will continue to increase across
the area with a continued threat for some drizzle or light
showers. Temperatures on Friday are a tough call with plenty of
cloud cover expected. We have gone with a middle of the road
approach for high temperatures with most areas at least warming
into the lower to middle 60s. Highs should be closer to 70 across
far southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. This may be too
cool if we get breaks in the clouds.

That surface low will then make a trek down I-70 across Kansas and
Missouri from Friday evening into early Saturday morning. That
low will drag a cold front through the Missouri Ozarks late Friday
night and early Saturday morning. Due to the presence of an
elevated mixed layer (EML) ahead of the front, we continue to
believe that any risk for thunderstorms will occur along, or more
likely a bit behind the surface front with the arrival of short
wave energy.

The threat for strong or severe storms continues to look very low
given a lack of instability. The risk for showers will then end
from northwest to southeast across the area on Saturday. We have
all areas "dry" by the afternoon, however we will have to watch
areas across central Missouri for lingering shower activity
beneath the track of mid-level short wave energy.

The biggest potential impact with this system will likely be non-
thunderstorm wind related. After a windy Friday, surface wind
should actually increase out of the south to southwest Friday
night with the approach of that surface low. Wind Advisory
potential will therefore continue, especially west of U.S. 65
where sustained winds around 30 mph will remain possible.

Brisk and gusty northwest winds will then develop behind that
passing cold front from late Friday night into Saturday.
Inspection of forecast soundings reveals fairly high mixing
heights and momentum transfer potential for Saturday. If this pans
out, a Wind Advisory may be needed for the entire area. Gusts on
Saturday may push 50 mph if forecast soundings prove to be
accurate. Fire weather will also be a concern as a much drier air
mass advects into the region.

We are then not seeing any appreciable chances for precipitation
from Saturday night through next Wednesday as global models try
and establish a dry northwesterly flow aloft across the region.
While daily highs/lows will be variable through the period, we are
generally looking at temperatures fairly close to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Surface high pressure is currently over the region late this
morning. Mostly sunny skies and light winds can be expected
through the afternoon hours.

The area of high pressure will then start to slide off to the east
tonight allowing the pressure gradient to tighten across the
region. Winds will increase and become gusty tonight into Friday
morning. Low level wind shear will also be a concern at the TAF
sites tonight into Friday morning.

Clouds will also increase this evening then lower into the MVFR
range overnight. IFR ceilings will also be possible Friday
morning. Some drizzle may also be possible late tonight into
Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
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