Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290816
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacted portions of
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks overnight. This
activity was ongoing early this morning in response to an upper
level weakness slowly moving over the region.

It appears as though this activity will persist into today`s
period, particularly along and east of Highway 65, as the upper
wave translates to the east.

By late this afternoon and early evening, there are some signals
within the potential temperature surfaces that would suggest an
uptick in deep convection across southwest Missouri.

Models indicate an airmass that becomes increasingly unstable.
Most unstable cape by the GFS-20 shows amounts along and slightly
west of Highway 65 reaching 3,000 j/kg. With modest deep layer
shear present, we think a few robust updrafts are not out of the
question. Will advertise this within today`s Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

An unusual low level pattern unfolds tonight through Sunday. A
slow moving 925mb low develops over southeast Kansas creating low
level baroclinicity across the area. As a low level jet
intensifies tonight, convection will also increase in coverage.

Will need to watch any clusters or cells that struggle to move
much, which could become conducive to localized heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

It appears as though we remain somewhat unsettled heading into the
upcoming work week. The main belt of westerlies shifts well into
Canada. Meanwhile an upper level weakness remains cut off within
the mean ridge. This feature will have a the potential to trigger
convection through Wednesday or Thursday. We`re not suggesting a
high coverage of rainfall, however, spotty rainfall through the
week is likely across southern Missouri on a daily basis.

Afternoon temperatures in the mid and upper 80s are expected
through the week, as increased humidity takes hold.

There are some indications tropical moisture from the Atlantic
retrogrades into the Ozarks toward next weekend. We`ll have to see
more of a consistent model signal before we get too serious about
it.

In summary, warm, humid, and unsettled weather could continue
for several days across the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A frontal boundary will slowly approach southern Missouri from the
west overnight and Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms can be expected ahead of this feature late tonight
and early Saturday morning. Thunderstorm re-development will then
be possible in the afternoon with additional storms then possible
again later Saturday night. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms. Surface winds will remain out of the
southeast tonight before shifting to the south and then southwest
on Saturday. Winds will generally remain below 12 knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann


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