Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

It was another fine day across the Ozarks. Despite a cold front
slicing through the region, temperatures ranged from the lower 70s
to the lower 80s. So far no precipitation had developed along this
frontal boundary, and it`s quite possible all locations remain dry
through the rest of the afternoon and evening.

This frontal system will stall out near the Arkansas and Missouri
state line tonight, and eventually push back north as a warm front
early Wednesday morning. A moist and unstable airmass across
southern Missouri will spread underneath a highly sheared belt of
westerlies. This cape - shear combination will be more than
sufficient for organized storms.

Given the uncertainty over boundary layer/low level de-
stabilization due to possible early convection and cloud cover, we
feel as though large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risks. Therefore, at this time, no mention of tornadoes
will be inserted into the Hazardous Weather Outlook or Situation

One final item to mention, since thunderstorms will be possible
during the morning hours, the window of opportunity for severe
storms will be long in duration. Basically from mid morning into
the evening hours.

Post frontal thunderstorms are expected to continue into Wednesday
night, before shifting east of the Ozarks by Thursday morning.

A much cooler airmass will spread across the region for Thursday,
with highs only in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)

While temperatures will once again remain in the 60s on Friday, a
strong warming trend will begin on Saturday, and continue well
into the following work week.

A long wave ridge will build across the nation`s midsection
bringing a return of southerly winds into the Ozarks. The
combination of sun and south winds will force temperatures back
into the 70s on an afternoon basis.

No precipitation is expected Thursday through next Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A front just south of KSGF will
become nearly stationary. The low level flow will strengthen
convergence along the nose of 25-30kt 850mb jet allowing some
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to develop after 08z, so
have some mention of vcts/shra/vcsh at KSGF/Springfield and
KBBG/Branson. Lower ceilings will also develop near the front
over the next few hours and have a period of at least mvfr
ceilings. Finally late in the taf period the front will become
more active with thunderstorms with stronger instability as it starts
to shift to the south and east. Some post frontal MVFR/IFR
ceilings will be possible at the very end of the taf period.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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