Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Hot and humid conditions continue across the area and are expected
to continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high
pressure remains centered over the central U.S. Main short-term
forecast focus will be with these temperatures and heat index
values and with the popup instability based afternoon
thunderstorms. No changes are expected with this forecast package
with our hazards which currently have heat advisory/warning
products through Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Widely scattered convection over the eastern CWA should quickly
come to an end this evening as drier air in the mid levels
continues to spread eastward across the CWA and we lose our
instability with the loss of daytime heating.

Similar conditions are expected on Friday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees during the
afternoon and early evening. Late morning and afternoon widely
scattered convection will again be possible with high instability
developing. Best chances will again be over the eastern Ozarks
where slightly better moisture in the mid levels exist.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The heat and humidity will linger into the weekend with similar
conditions expected from today and Friday. The ridge will begin to
flatten out as a strong shortwave tracks across the upper midwest
and MS valley regions. This will also allow a surface cold front
to track south into the region. Front will probably wash out
across the area so not a big cooldown is expected for the start of
next week, however the ridge will begin retrograding back to the
west and a weak west-northwest flow will set up which should allow
for increased convective activity for the second half of the
extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to
continue. Some isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible
south and east of the taf sites over the next few hours but
expected coverage does not warrant a mention in the tafs.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ082-090>092-094>097-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.