Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220905
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Very warm weather will continue. An upper level ridge will build
over the area ahead of strong upper level system moving into the
western CONUS. Expect similar temperatures to yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Friday will be another very warm day, maybe adding a degree or so
to highs. The upper ridge will shift off to the east as the very
slowly progressive western trough begins to move from the Rockies
into the High Plains late Fri night into Sat. Rain chances will
start to increase late Sat or Sat night over the far western cwfa
as a sfc front approaches. In general guidance has slowed the
western progress of the rain slightly over previous forecasts.

There is still a lot of variance and run-to-run inconsistency in
guidance early next week. Most guidance in one form another is
splitting the western longwave trough into northern and southern
cutoff lows. Where, when, how that will evolve is a low confidence
guess at this point. A slow moving or stalling front over or near
our area is indicated by the GFS and Canadian while the ops ECMWF
is more progressive with the northern portion of the trough with
overall less precip. WPC qpf guidance is fairly bullish on rain
amounts, and while there is a signal for heavy rain, overall
confidence in the synoptic setup is still low. The forecast will
have fairly high rain chances Sunday/Sunday night then a blend of
guidance yields somewhat lower rain chances into Mon-Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

No aviation concerns for pilots in and out of the Missouri Ozarks
region. VFR will prevail. Might see some brief light fog at BBG
around sunrise in the morning. Have mentioned this as a TEMPO
group from 11z to 14z otherwise good flying conditions through
Thursday afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5 knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.

SGF...

9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937

JLN...

9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986

UNO...

9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984

VIH...

9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Boxell


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