Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet and mild night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. An upper level disturbance that passed over
the area yesterday, was exiting to the east into Kentucky and
Indiana.

This feature also forced a frontal system into southern Missouri,
that will continue pressing southward into Arkansas before
completely stalling out.

Models suggests the front stalling along a line from Fayetteville
to around Hardy Arkansas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing along it. Therefore, we think nearly all locations
should stay dry today across southern Missouri.

Look for temperatures to range from the lower 80s in central
Missouri, to the upper 80s along the Arkansas border. So it`s
going to be a great day for outdoor activities.

Heading into tonight, a disturbance is expected to trigger some
storms across Nebraska. None of the models indicate this
convection making it into southern or central Missouri, therefore
we should stay dry again tonight, with temperatures cooling into
the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The forecast is looking mostly dry during the Monday through
Saturday period. We will also experience a significant warming
trend toward the end of the  week.

The lone chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday
night into Tuesday morning, as a weak disturbance approaches from
the west. Not all locations are expected to receive rain,
therefore, coverage will be limited Monday night.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, a summertime ridge of high pressure will
begin building from the south. The GFS and the ECMWF are not
nearly as bullish with bringing its center directly over the state
of Missouri. However, temperatures Thursday and Friday should
still warm into the upper 90s in several areas.

The ridge should stay overhead through next weekend, with the
storm track closer to the corn belt. Temperatures in the upper 90s
are anticipated by Thursday and Friday. This could send heat
indices between 100 and 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

A band of MVFR ceilings will remain over portions of southern
Missouri into early Sunday morning. The best prospects for several
hours of MVFR will be at Springfield where up slope flow along the
Ozark Plateau will aid in maintaining the lower clouds. There is
also the potential for at least light fog later tonight. Some
models continue to advertise IFR potential, but confidence in IFR
is low at this time due to abundant cloud cover. Flight conditions
will then improve throughout Sunday morning with VFR expected by
late morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





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