Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160521
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

It was a quiet day with seasonal temperatures over extreme
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A mix of sun and clouds
were observed as light southerly breezes persisted.

For tonight, shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a weak
disturbance approaches from the southwest. We think most locations
will remain dry, however, some locations could get wet. No severe
weather is expected, and temperatures are expected to cool into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is now expected to
occur on Wednesday and Wednesday night. An unseasonably strong
speed max currently located over southern Arizona will approach
the Ozarks. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside
underneath this feature, bringing a sufficient environment for
organized thunderstorms.

As of now, the models suggest a southwest component to low level
winds, which would mitigate the tornado risk. However, damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be common with the most intense
thunderstorms.

Storms should linger into Wednesday night before exiting east by
Thursday morning. Dry conditions are expected most of Thursday and
well into Friday. However, additional thunderstorm development
will be possible late Friday afternoon and evening as another
disturbance approaches from the west.

It`s possible that low rain chances are in the offing from
Saturday afternoon and into early next week as a summertime ridge
attempts to build in from the south. Ultimately this will bring
warmer temperatures with readings in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Unsettled weather expected through the taf
cycle. Broad warm advection to continue to provide lift for
scattered convection through the night into the early morning hours.
Expect mainly VFR conditions, with lower MVFR/IFR flight conditions
expected within any storms. Timing of the convection is more a near
term forecast challenge. There could be a break in the activity
later this morning, before instability once again fires more
scattered storms this afternoon and evening. More widespread chances
will come just beyond 06Z Thursday as a cold front begins to push
through the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding



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