Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292006
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 943 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through midday Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable through this evening...then switching to a
light southerly by Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly clear
with high and mid level cloudiness moving in by Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin






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