Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move
southeast through the taf site region toward the 03z-09z time
frame. VFR conditions are expected ahead of and near the front, but
lower mvfr potentially brief ifr post frontal ceilings are
expected with gusty nw winds. A brief period of light snow is
expected with somewhat higher potential at KSGF versus the other
sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA





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