Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261048

548 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A rather active past 24-48 hours across the region. As
anticipated, a messy round of severe and heavy rain affected the
region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Numerous hail reports and
a few wind reports were observed, along with localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding.

Currently, the main band of moderate rainfall has shifted to the
southeast of the region. 925/850mb fronts are moving into the area
at this hour, creating bands of light rain showers which will
progressively move through the area over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Northerly flow continues to settle into the area and a cold air
advection regime is expected over the next 48 hours.

Showers will clear south central Missouri by late this morning and
at least partial clearing is expected for the entire area into
this afternoon. Northerly flow will continue to settle into the
area and a cold air advection regime is expected over the next 48
hours. Temperatures will struggle to warm both today and Friday.
In general, readings will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with
the potential for slightly warmer readings in the west and
slightly cooler readings in the east.

Main story heading into tonight is the passage of a quick
disturbance aloft. Narrow band of mid level frontogenesis will
sweep through the area, entering late this evening and exiting
first thing Friday morning. Temperatures in the column will get
cold enough to support snow, especially overnight tonight. Lift
will be good enough in a very narrow corridor to possibly yield a
light dusting of snow accumulation, however pinpointing any areas
this far in advance is an exercise in futility.

Friday night will likely be a carbon copy of tonight. Another fast
moving shortwave will enter from the northwest during the evening
and exit to the southeast Saturday morning. Mid level
frontogenesis will be elongated/narrow, focusing a bit more on
the eastern half of the outlook area. Once again, lift will be
good enough in a narrow corridor to support a dusting of snow
accumulation on grassy surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Northwest flow aloft will persist over the area this weekend,
relaxing a bit heading into next week. A warming trend will
commence on Saturday and persist into at least early next week,
with readings return to at/just above average levels. Another
shortwave passage is possible on Sunday/Sunday night and have
maintained low chance PoPs for this time frame.

00z suite of model output is in a little better agreement this
morning, though there continues to be some differences in handling
smaller scale features. GFS remains a lone wolf with rain chances
Monday night through Tuesday night and have kept PoPs near climo
(slight chance). A better chance for rain enters the picture
during mid week. The upper level pattern flattens a bit and a
cold front slides into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

IFR ceilings for SGF and BBG will improve by mid morning.
Scattered showers will end from west to east by 14z this morning.
All skies will clear by midday today. Northerly winds will be
gusty through the morning and early afternoon but relax by late
afternoon. Skies will start off clear this evening but mid level
clouds will increase by 06z with the approach of an upper level
disturbance. VFR should prevail tonight but have included a PROB30
for a few showers late tonight after 06z.




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