Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 070521
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

...Potential for Heavy Raiinfall and Flooding Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to spread
eastward from eastern Kansas into the Missouri Ozarks. While the
risk of severe weather has waned the potential for flooding will
increase overnight.

A 30-40 kt low level jet in advance of a minor shortwave will
interact with a sagging frontal boundary as well as a residual
outflow boundary left from earlier convection to support continued
convective development overnight. Lift will be enhanced to some
degree upper level divergence ahead of the minor shortwave.

Near term models suggest convection and rainfall rates will
increase during the predawn hours as the front makes its way into
southern Missouri and interacts with the low level jet.

Rich moisture supply in place with precipitable water values near
2 inches and 850 dewpoints in the mid teens along with a deep warm
layer will support very efficient rainfall rates. Areas where
deep convection trains will enhance the flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern
states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the
surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through
south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. A very moist
tropical airmass was in place with PWAT values in the 1.5-1.75" range.
Widely scattered pulse storms had developed over the southern and
eastern sections of the Ozarks this afternoon.

The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with
the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday. A
line of strong to severe storms will be possible this evening with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Most of the heaviest rainfall will occur along and behind the
front due to a combination of weak short wave moving out of the
Rockies...the slowing of the surface frontal boundary itself and
the development of a south to southwesterly low level jet setting
up overnight. The front will be a focus for low level convergence
with PWAT values near 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

On Tuesday...the short wave moving up out of the southern Rockies
and along the surface front will induce a low along the surface
front which will enhance the rainfall. The strong low level
winds...slow cell motions...and repeated cell development will
create an environment for excessive rainfall across the region.
Rainfall amounts of two to four inches with locally higher amounts
will be possible. Clouds and rain will also keep daytime high
temperatures down in the 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall will continue on Wednesday but with lighter amounts. By
Thursday...the upper level flat ridge to build and retrograde to
the west. As it does...the surface will begin to meander northward
bringing the rainfall to an end.

As the high builds westward...expect a dry period through the
weekend with a return to more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
 Pilots can expect showers and thunderstorms to impact area
terminals overnight into Tuesday as a front drops southward into
the area. Expect MVFR ceilings to increase in coverage overnight.
Areas of IFR ceilings will develop Tuesday morning. Low level wind
shear will impact the region overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Foster






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