Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
301 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Upper level trough moving into northern New Mexico will be the
weather maker for the short term period. Surface low expected to
develop over southeastern Colorado and move into western Oklahoma
by late Sunday afternoon. While convection is expected to develop
ahead of the dryline across OK Sunday afternoon...the warm front
and associated surface moisture does not look to get into
southwest MO until Sunday evening.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop or move into the area
after 7PM and will be most likely during the 11PM to 6AM period.
Agree with the SPC assessment of a marginal risk of severe storms
with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region
to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Rain should begin to taper off during the day on Monday with the
system exiting the area Monday evening. The area remains in a
progressive pattern with systems coming through every 2-3 days through
the remainder of the period.

The next system approaches late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will
need to monitor the severe threat with this system as well with
SPC placing a 15% risk just to our south in the Arklatex region.
This system will linger in the area until Friday. Saturday looks
good with yet another system approaching on Sunday.

With the progressive nature of the upper level pattern...will not
see too much variation in day-to-day temperatures with highs near
to slightly above normal and generally in the 60s. Overnight lows
will be above normal ranging front the low 40s to low 50s through
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

TAF sites have dropped or are in the process of dropping to near
IFR conditions as a weak frontal boundary swings through southwest
MO. Sufficient drying is anticipated later tonight to see some
limited fog...though winds will stay just strong enough to negate

Remaining stratus/stratocumulus to thin by mid morning leading to
VFR conditions through the afternoon. SHRA to move in then from
the west during the evening...with TSRA chances being monitored.




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