Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 300746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding






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