Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 010429

1129 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Looks quiet in the near term. A few showers have developed over
the far eastern cwfa but weak shortwave upper level riding has
kept things in check.

Strong/severe storms are expected to develop over the northern and
central Plains this evening as a shortwave moves east from the
Rockies. High res models move some convection into the northwest
and northern cwfa late tonight into Mon morning. By this time,
expect convection to become increasingly elevated as a strengthening
cap/elevated mixed layer spreads northeast into the area. Do have
some pops to account for this weakening convection.

Capping is expected to remain in place for much of the day Monday,
strongest over the sw quarter of the cwfa. A west-east oriented
sfc boundary is expected to set up somewhere, likely over central
MO late during the day, and expect to see renewed convection
develop late in the day and the evening with weakening capping
with another shortwave approaching, increased low level moisture
advection and convergence, and moderate instability. The window
for sfc or at least low level based convection will be fairly
narrow Monday night, but cold see a hail/wind threat during that
time. Training/back-building convection is also a possibility with
areas of heavy rain setting up somewhere over the cwfa Monday
night. The heavy rain possibility is becoming an increasing
concern, but many areas can take a good soaking right now. Still,
expect that we have at least a limited chance for some flash flooding
where excessive rain/runoff occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Tusday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The front is expected to stall over the southern cwfa Tuesday and
Tuesday night with continued chances for occasional thunderstorms.
The front is expected to finally lift back north Wednesday as
low pressure develops over the Plains in response to a shortwave
moving into the Rockies. A front will push back to the south by
late in the week as the shortwave passes north of the area. Have
rain chances Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS give the front a
pretty good bump to the south, moving Canadian high pressure into
the Corn Belt/Midwest next weekend with dry and cool weather
a possibility for late Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.




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