Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
102 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

It`s another seasonably cool morning across far southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the lower to
middle 40s with the cooler locations in the eastern Ozarks likely
down into the upper 30s. Similar to yesterday, some very patchy
frost may be possible in those cooler locations. With the warmer
water temperatures around area lakes, some fog can`t be ruled out
in those favored areas.

Today will be another beautiful day. Southerly flow will continue
to increase today, which should help increase temperatures a bit
this afternoon. Our overnight lows tonight are also expected to
be a tad warmer area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Upper level ridging and warm southerly flow will cause
temperatures to warm above seasonal average later this weekend and
early next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 50s for the
most part through early week.

We did a very modest downward shift in afternoon high
temperatures by a degree or two on Tuesday as prior guidance may
have initially been a bit bullish. Regardless, temperatures in
the lower 70s is still pretty warm for this time of year.

A surface cold front and its parent upper level wave will slide
eastward across the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Showers and perhaps a t`storm or two can be anticipated late
Tuesday with the higher odds of rain being during the day on

Temperatures cool behind the front, but only slightly toward the
end of next week. High temperatures look to warm into the upper
60s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees across
much of the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail
across the TAF site this afternoon through Sunday, as high
pressure will remain centered just southeast of the area. South
to southwesterly winds will occur through the TAF period.




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