Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild Autumn weather will continue tonight into Wednesday as a
cold front approaches the region. The front extending from the
southern High Plains into the upper midwest Tuesday afternoon will
push southeastward and enter the Ozarks region Wednesday.
Scattered convection will develop across the Plains tonight as
the low level jet interacts with the front. This activity could
make it into southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri late
tonight into early Wednesday morning.

A shortwave trough accompanying the front will makes its way
across the region during the day Wednesday. An increase in low
level moisture will occur ahead of the front with modest
instability developing. Mixed layer CAPE of around 1000 J/KG is
progged with deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts. However relatively
weak synoptic scale lift and a veering wind profile will be
limiting factors to thunderstorm coverage and severity. However a
few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out mainly
across far southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild weather will continue into Thursday despite the frontal
passage. Even warmer temperatures can be expected Friday as
gusty southerly winds return and an upper level ridge of high
pressure expands eastward. Highs Friday will top 80 degrees at
most locations.

The dry and warm weather pattern will persist into the weekend
with daily highs in the 70s. A frontal passage may bring a chance
of showers to the area Tuesday. Model solutions vary going into
the middle and later part of next week ranging from a continuation
of the relatively quiet weather or potentially a more active
weather pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected for most of tonight. An approaching
cold front will then bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to western and southern Missouri from late tonight
into Wednesday afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected around
any storms. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest with
some afternoon gustiness around Joplin.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.