Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281115
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

There are no big changes in this forecast update. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue in the
forecast this afternoon and evening. High moisture content in the
atmosphere will continue with PW values around 1.8 inches. High-Res
short term models like the HRRR and 4KM WRF show development by
midday through the afternoon across the area. While most areas
will remain dry today, any convection that develops will be
capable of brief heavy downpours and occasional cloud to ground
lightning. No severe weather is expected. High temperatures will
again be typical for this time of year in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

More of the same can be expected on Monday. Models indicate by
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, there will be a better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms around in the afternoons. A lingering
frontal boundary will be hanging out in the area along with a
couple of weak impulse disturbances interacting with this front.
Will see about a 40 to 50 percent coverage of showers and storms
both days. Again, will not be a wash out but definitely a better
chance of rain by mid week for the Missouri Ozarks. High
temperatures also may be knocked down a few degrees in the lower
to middle 80s with the added cloud cover and rain chances. The
front washes out and precip chances go back down by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours. As has been
the case for the last few days, a few isolated afternoon
thunderstorms are expected to develop today. Coverage will be
rather sparse, and did not make mention in the TAFs at this time.
Any activity that does develop should dissipate by early to mid
evening.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell


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