Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281107
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Sfc low pressure over the Dakotas will shift east into the upper
Midwest while farther south, the trailing edge of sfc troughing
will lag back over western KS through tonight. A tightening
pressure gradient has already bumped up winds, and gusty south
winds will continue today, especially over the western cwfa and
over wind exposed areas of the western Ozarks Highlands.

Convection is expected to develop (or intensify) over the Midwest
today, with additional activity expected to develop over southern
Neb/northern KS late today and this evening. Will have to watch
this area as it shifts east and ese tonight as a low level jet
increases. In general, progged soundings over our area late
tonight, while unstable overall, lack low level instability. Some
weakened activity could reach our northern/northwestern cwfa by
daybreak Thu, but not counting on much at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The weather looks to be active for much of this period as we
approach the 4th of July holiday.

Thursday-Friday early AM: Another shortwave will approach the
Corn Belt and lower MO River Vly Thu and Thu evening. The scenario
may be similar to today/tonight, just a little farther southeast:
Convection is expected to intensify or redevelop late Thu and Thu
evening over IA/nw MO/eastern KS as capping breaks along the sfc
cold front. The convection will probably grow upscale into an MCS
and shift southeast. Remnant convection late Thu night into Fri
morning will probably have better chances to move into the western
and northwestern cwfa, but most guidance weakens the activity by
12z/7 am Fri with weak low level instability and some capping.

Friday-Friday night: The sfc cold front or outflow boundaries
from Thu night`s convection could be the sfc trigger for
strong/severe storms on Friday depending on how the mesoscale
details work out. Robust, and eventually uncapped, instability
will potentially occur ahead of the front with about 30-40kts of
0-6km bulk shear in the afternoon. The storms will shift
southeast through the region as the front settles/stalls south of
the area Fri night.

Saturday- Saturday night: This looks to be a relative day of
quiet weather as weak sfc high pressure pushes the sfc front off
to the south.

Sunday: There is general guidance agreement with another subtle
shortwave expected to move southeast into the central Plains
Sunday/Sunday night as the front lifts back up to the northeast.
Despite the general agreement, there are timing and mesoscale
differences so won`t get too bogged down in details yet. A model
blends yield chances for thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday (July 4th): Active convective weather will continue
with good general global model agreement concerning a shortwave
moving through our area Tue. This shortwave actually begins to
split off from the main belt of upper level westerlies, and is
fairly slow to approach and move through with the potential for
multiple periods of showers/storms with very subtle small scale
features. Details on timing/areal coverage are impossible to
determine this far out. The obvious concern is the outdoor
activities during this time and will need to watch fcst trends
closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through this TAF
cycle. The main story today will be the increase in the southerly
surface flow where winds may gust up to 25-30kts, especially for
the JLN and SGF terminals. Winds will subside around sunset this
evening. There is a signal for an increasing low level jet later
tonight, however, at this time it appears LLWS is only marginal.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye



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