Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271745
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

...Udated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a slow westward
expansion of patchy stratus / fog along and south of the Ozark
Plateau this morning behind the exiting cold front which has now
made its way into central Arkansas and Tennessee. Temperatures have
fallen into the mid and upper 60s and were within a few degrees of
the dewpoint. So far wind speeds have been high enough to keep
the lower levels mixed and limit fog development, but wind speeds
have shown a slowing trend, so will probably need to add fog to
the grids/forecast for the early morning.

The main change to the forecast today will be to add isolated
storms to our eastern counties as a shortwave trough shifts
southward around the back side of the Great Lakes upper low during
maximum heating, potentially sparking a few storms, mainly mid to
late afternoon. Limited moisture should keep storm coverage
isolated at best.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

It still looks like this could be an increasingly active period
with intermittent fast-moving clipper systems dropping
southeastward in northwest flow aloft. The first system still
looks on track for Sunday night/Monday time frame. Winds shift from
northerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the system, with
some gusts around 20 mph possible during the afternoon. Will start
slight precip chances over our northern counties Sunday afternoon
and spread southward across the rest of the forecast area Sunday
night. SPC continues to carry a marginal risk for severe storms,
mainly straight line winds.

The next systems are expected from Wednesday and Friday. Will not
get too cute with the timing this far out and carry chance pops
each day. Temperatures will be near normal through mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

Multiple layer ceilings present at all three SGF area airports to
become VFR this afternoon before thinning by mid afternoon as
cyclonic flow diminishes. May be a touch of BR late tonight especially
over the KBBG area where boundary layer moisture will tend to mix
out more slowly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Runnels





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