Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A substantial warming trend will arrive today as a southerly flow
increases. There could be a few showers early today as an upper
level disturbance passes by. Otherwise considerable cloud cover
will persist and impact just how warm we get today. However still
expect lower to middle 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The warmup will continue into Thursday as a southerly flow
persists ahead of the next upstream system. Highs Thursday will
climb into the 60s with some locations reaching the 70 degree

However the preview of Spring will come to an end Thursday night
as as strong cold front plows southward. Expect showers to develop
along this front as the upstream upper level trough approaches.
Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder across southern Missouri but
instability will be weak at best. There could also be a brief
transition to snow before precipitation ends late Thursday night
and early Friday but little if any accumulation and no impacts are
expected at this time.

Forecast confidence greatly diminishes going into the weekend with
significant differences in model solutions on the handling of a
northern stream shortwave trough. At this time we have a chance of
wintry precipitation late Friday night into Saturday morning
before changing to rain by Saturday afternoon. Accumulations if
any look to be light at this time. Details on this forecast
period are highly uncertain so monitor for the latest forecast


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Stratus across the region will keep low end VFR to MVFR ceilings
in place for much of the overnight hours. Low level wind shear
will also occur as strong southwesterly winds stay up through the
night as well. Ceilings will drop to IFR area wide around sunrise
with Joplin falling as early as 08z. Ceilings will improve to VFR
by noon Wednesday with low level winds shear again impacting the
region tomorrow evening.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.