Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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353
FXUS63 KSGF 280001
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The approach of upper level short wave energy and weak mid-level
isentropic upglide has resulted in a band of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms pushing northeast into portions of the
region this afternoon. One area of rainfall was occurring across
western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. A second area
was located across far south-central Missouri.

As we head into this evening, this initial activity will shift
northeast into central Missouri. We are expecting some scattered
development in its wake as that upper level wave inches closer to
our vicinity. While instability will be lacking a bit, deep layer
shear will increase into this evening. This will leave the door
open for an isolated strong to severe storm or two...especially
where bubbles of greater instability exist. Marginally severe hail
and wind would be the primary concerns along with locally heavy
rainfall.

By later tonight, we will have to watch activity back to
our west across the central Plains. There is a chance that this
convection grows upscale and pushes towards west-central Missouri.
However, it will be weakening with time as it moves into a less
unstable air mass.

That upper level wave will then move northeast across the central
Plains and then Corn Belt on Saturday. As this happens, we will
get some moisture pooling across west-central and southwestern
Missouri ahead of a weak surface trough. This will result in a
rather unstable atmosphere with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range.

The big question is whether or not storms will be able to
overcome a capping inversion. That upper level wave will actually
begin to depart the area in the afternoon with heights beginning
to rise. Additionally, low level convergence does not look all
that strong. Thus, we are thinking that any convection that fires
will tend to be widely scattered. Deep layer shear will be on the
weak side also, thus the prospects for severe are somewhat
limited. Nevertheless, we will continue to advertise a limited
severe risk due to the instability alone. Highs over most areas
should be in the lower to perhaps middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

There is then at least a limited potential that convection will
increase in areal coverage either Saturday evening or overnight
Saturday. Models seem to be hinting at the potential for a
convergence signature setting up around 850 mb from northeastern
Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks. If this transpires, we may see
elevated convection develop. Confidence remains low in this
scenario...but it is certainly worth noting.

Models then continue to bring short wave energy through the region
both on Sunday and Memorial Day. This will keep the threat going
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. If anything, there has
been a slight increase in thunderstorm potential for Memorial Day
as models bring a wave out into the Ozarks during peak heating.

We will then begin to see a slight transition towards the middle
and end of next week as global models dig a more substantial wave
into the northern Plains. This may eventually result in a cold
front dropping south towards the Ozarks. This will keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms going for much of the week along
with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
plains and over the Ozarks over the next 24 hours bringing the
potential for thunderstorms to area termianls. As a resutl for
deep moisture over the region cloud cover will fall to MVFR
overnight with periods of IFR ceilings possible, early Saturday
morning. Conditions will see an improving trend late Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch



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