Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

Southerly winds were continuing to bring warm and moist air into
the Ozarks this afternoon. This will continue as a storm system
moves across the Plains today and into the area this evening.
Temperatures were well above normal for this part of the year with
most location in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region was currently
producing rain and a few thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Kansas.
The system is expected to begin to impact the Ozarks by early this
evening and produce rain through much of the overnight hours.

Temperatures will move very little through the day Monday with
morning lows around 50 and highs only in the middle 50s. Rain
will continue through the day as the stacked slow makes its way
towards the Great Lakes with some lingering light rain continuing
into Monday afternoon. The system will also bring with it more
seasonable temperatures as Canadian high pressure slides south
across the plains and filters into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

The region should see a slow clearing trend starting late Monday
night and continuing through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models
continue to indicate that this may be the only period this week
that the Ozarks will have a chance for some sunshine as another
storm system is expected to begin to impact the region as early as
late Wednesday night. Even with the mostly clear skies,
temperatures will be more December like with highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s both days.

The next system continues to make its way towards the area towards
the second half of the week. There remains some timing and
coverage differences with the models, but the overall trend is for
several rounds of precipitation beginning as early as Thursday
morning through Saturday morning. The temperatures at this point
would support periods of snow during the overnight with changes to
rain or rain/snow mix during the afternoons.

The system then moves east and is replaced by surface high
pressure with clearing skies and normal temperatures for late
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014


Main line segment has pushed through JLN/SGF thsi evening and
should make it to BBG by the onset of the 06z tafs. Area of
lighter rainfall behind the main line segment, however back edge
of rainfall was already beginning to push into extreme southeast
Kansas. Low pressure was still located southwest of Wichita and is
expected to lift northeast through the remainder of the night an
on Monday. Will probably see some MVFR possibly IFR ceilings
develop during the overnight behind the main area of rainfall.
Winds will be slow to veer through the period but should switch to
the southwest and west during the forecast period, remaining gusty
through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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