Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 250013
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2015

...Meso Update...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Cluster of convection is slowly moving south through the Lake of
the Ozarks area, and should continue to move south along the U.S.
65 and 63 corridors over the next couple of hours. The environment
in, around and ahead of this feature is very unstable, with 4500
J/KG of SBCAPE measured on the 00Z SGF RAOB. In addition, 30K
theta-e differentials were measured on the same sounding,
indicating a good environment for downburst wind gusts.

Have extended the elevated wind risk south to the Arkansas state
line in the HWO/EHWO, though confidence does wane about as to how
far south these storms will make it before finally weakening.

Finally, have added a small area of limited flood risk as well, as
torrential rainfall will likely lead to some minor issues in the
usual spots.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

An upper level ridge was centered across the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles this afternoon. An old, diffuse boundary was located
from roughly Kansas City to Lebanon to Ft Wood. Temperatures
ranged from the middle 90s across SE Kansas to the upper 80s
across the eastern Ozarks. Heat Indices were around 105 to 110
from the I49 corridor westward into Kansas. A thunderstorm complex
was located along the Iowa/Missouri border north of Kirksville and
was moving south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Main concern for this evening is in regard to the aforementioned
convective cluster near Kirksville. This line of storms has
separated from its upper level support but continues to dive south
along a theta-e and instability axis. With 0 to 6km shear vectors
of 30 to 35 knots and theta-e differentials around 35-40K, these
storms could produce damaging winds. If they are able to develop a
significant cold pool, this line could move into our area this
evening. Hi res models have been inconsistent but do break out
other scattered showers and storms this evening ahead of the
northern MO cluster, primarily over the eastern half of the CWA,
possibly tied to that old diffuse boundary. With warming and
slightly drying midlevels it may be hard to get convection west of
US 65. Heat indices will continue to hang near 100-105 across the
area until sundown.

Overnight, convection should wane with increasing inhibition. It
will be a rather mild night with lows in the middle to upper 70s.
An area of convection looks to fire along the Nebraska and Iowa
areas. Shear vectors would tend to point at this activity moving
southeast and possibly clipping our NE CWA by tomorrow morning
after 10Z.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

By tomorrow morning, remnant convection from overnight MCS activity
across the Corn Belt may start to move south over northern/eastern
Missouri, and have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs over the
eastern Ozarks to account for the possibility of some outflow making
it far enough west to generate a few showers/thunderstorms within
the CWA.  Most locations, especially those west of Highway 63,
should stay dry, however.

Temperatures will again be very warm on Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 90s over central and southern Missouri, and the mid to
upper 90s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.  Dewpoints
on Saturday will remain in the 70s, with resulting heat indices
between 102 and 109 area-wide.  A Heat Advisory will be issued for
the entire CWA from noon until 9 PM Saturday.

More of the same is expected for the first portion of next week,
with highs in the low to mid 90s on a daily basis through at least
Tuesday.  Occasional chances for isolated thunderstorms will be
possible as passing shortwaves across the Corn Belt briefly suppress
the upper ridge, but convection probably won`t be widespread enough
to cool temperatures for except for a select few.  Even then,
increased humidity will be enough to maintain heat indices around
Heat Advisory criteria.

That said, after coordination with surrounding WFOs, will hold off
on extending the Advisory beyond tomorrow, given uncertainties with
temperatures/cloud cover/precipitation.  It is likely that most of
the area will end up with an Advisory beyond tomorrow, but this will
give us a bit more time to fine tune affected areas.

Some (relative) light does exist at the end of the tunnel, with both
the GFS and ECMWF suggesting that the upper level ridge will begin
to move back to the west by the middle to end of next week.  This
would allow somewhat cooler air to build into the area by next
Thursday/Friday, with highs perhaps returning to the mid to upper
80s, with dewpoints finally dropping out of the 70s.  If this comes
to fruition, it would be a welcomed break for many.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Main aviation concern will be thunderstorm potential at KSGF
later this evening, though confidence in coverage and timing isn`t
high enough to justify anything other than VCTS at this time.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light winds through tomorrow.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-067-068-078-
     079-089-090-094-101-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell






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