Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 120742
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
It felt like an October night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the 40s and 50s, under
mostly cloudy skies and northeast breezes.
A Canadian airmass had spread across southern Missouri, which
should remain in place through the weekend. This airmass will
offer cool weather, with highs only in the 60s today and Saturday,
and lows falling into the 40s tonight and Saturday night.
An upper level disturbance is expected to pass over the region
tonight into Saturday morning. None of the models are suggesting
rain with this feature, therefore we have left precipitation
chances out for now.
This upper low will force another shot of Canadian air across the
By Sunday, clearing skies and the return of southerly winds will
facilitate warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs warming into
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Another disturbance is expected to approach on Monday. There is a
much better signal for widespread rainfall during the daytime as
moisture and instability will be sufficient for showers and
Another cold front will accompany this wave, with dry air surging
across southern Missouri behind it. We think conditions will stay
dry from Monday night through at least Wednesday night, with very
comfortable weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
There are indications of a decent warming trend beyond Wednesday,
as medium range models hint toward a strong ridge to build across
the Plains. This pattern could boost temperatures back into the
80s late next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014
Low clouds will continue overnight along with the potential for
some patchy drizzle. MVFR ceilings will slowly lower to IFR by
late tonight. Ceilings will then slowly improve back into the MVFR
category Friday morning. An upper level disturbance will then push
a cold front through southern Missouri late in the afternoon.
This will result in increasing northerly winds into Friday evening
along with gusts approaching 20 knots. Ceilings will also begin to
lower once again Friday evening.