Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192300
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Have made some minor updates to the short term to account for an
area of convection working its way south across north central and
central Missouri at this hour. Some weakening is expected as the
sun begins to set, but it does appear possible that at least
portions of central Missouri will get clipped by this convection.
As such, increased PoPs across the greater Lake of the Ozarks area
through mid evening. While the activity moving toward the area has
had plenty of lightning, it is not expected to become severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Upper level ridge of high pressure is over the region along with
a hot and muggy air mass. A dry air mass is in place in the mid
levels across the area this afternoon, especially in the 500-300mb
range. There is a little moisture in the 700-500mb range across
eastern MO where some isolated storms have been able to develop
early this afternoon. Models show the 700-500mb layer drying
through the afternoon, which will help to decrease convection as
dry air entrainment occurs. Will maintain low pops through late
this afternoon across the far eastern Ozarks, though almost all
locations will remain dry, and it may be hard to even get thunder
if any convection is able to develop.

Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s. This is resulting in heat index values around
105 across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Hot and humid conditions will occur on Wednesday as temperatures
and heat index values are very similar to those that are currently
occurring this afternoon. Highs will warm into the low to mid 90s
with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range.

Mid level moisture will increase across the eastern Ozarks
Wednesday morning and may allow some isolated pulse type storms
to develop during the late morning into the afternoon hours. As
peak heating occurs drier air will begin to work in from the west,
especially in the 500-300mb layer. The isolated storm chance will
likely slowly shift east through the afternoon hours. The drier
air building in the 500-300mb will limit updraft strengths once
they hit the drier air. Strong theta-e differences will be in
place so if a storm can overcome the dry air there could be a
microburst risk, however, the dry air in the 500-300mb layer will
really limit this potential. With moisture being better in the
700-500mb range a few isolated storms will likely occur across
portions of the eastern Ozarks during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Overnight lows will only cool into the middle 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
through the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Highs
in the middle 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range
can be expected each day. Dewpoints may slightly cool each day as
little rainfall occurs, but if this occurs temperatures may get a
tad warmer which should not affect heat index values each day.
Will keep the current Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
going as is through Friday afternoon as they seem to be in good
shape.

The medium range models are then showing the upper level ridge
flattening and a more zonal upper level flow pattern setting up
Sunday into next week. This will result in slightly cooler
conditions, though highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will occur
still. A few upper level disturbance will likely track through the
zonal flow and could trigger some storms across the area at times
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Little change to the going weather conditions tonight and
Wednesday, with VFR conditions expected. Some high cloud cover may
move into the area tonight, though it should not pose any hazard
to aviation. More sct fair weather cu is expected during the late
morning and afternoon hours Wednesday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ058-070-071-077-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>057-
     066>069-078.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ097-101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Boxell


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