Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Numerous Showers & T`storms Possible Today...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A cold frontal boundary will remain draped across the region
through early Thursday. Numerous showers and T`storms are
expected to develop in the proximity of the frontal boundary
through Wednesday evening. The front should push south and east
of the region allowing for a cooler and drier airmass to filter
into the region through Friday.

A dry weekend is expected with temperatures warming above average
once again by early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A stalled frontal boundary was located just south and east of the
I44 corridor this morning. This feature and an amplifying wave
moving into the region will be the main concern through the short
term period.

A very modest LLJ, isentropic upglide, and a few very weak mid level
impulses have caused some elevated convective development this
morning down in Ozark, Douglas, and Howell Counties. Much of the
short term guidances are picking up on the potential for more
development through the morning hours. Given the elevated nature
and weak upper level support, severe weather odds look pretty low
through the morning.

Additional development will likely occur through the day as a rather
diffuse surface low moves along the frontal boundary. In conjunction
with the low, upper level height falls will also begin to steepen
lapse rates over the region. Cloud cover will probably limit
heating along and north of the front, which should cause a rather
tight temperature/instability gradient between cooler temps north
(lower instability) and warmer temps south (higher instability).

Surface dewpoints will likely climb into the upper 60s to near 70
south of the front where moderate to perhaps strong surface based
instability is expected to develop by peak heating. Where this
instability and ~40kt 0-6km bulk shear are juxtaposed (generally
along and south of the front) will be the areas with the best
odds of severe weather this afternoon and into the early evening.
Exact positioning of the front will likely be a challenge.
Forecast surface ThetaE shows the boundary hanging out right
along Highway 60 or perhaps 10-20 miles or so north. The exact
placement will play a crucial role in determining exactly where
the better chances of T`storms will reside later today.

The primary threat from the stronger storms looks to be large hail
and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. As storms cross the
frontal boundary and become more elevated, a hail potential will
likely exist at least a tier or two counties north of the front.
The heaviest rainfall will likely remain across the eastern
portions of the Ozarks with lesser amounts over southeast Kansas.

The primary limiting factor for severe weather at this juncture
looks to be timing of the wave/limited upper level ascent during
peak heating.

Finally, the frontal boundary is expected to finally clear the
area late in the evening and overnight as the parent wave pushes
through the area. Cold air will then begin to filter into the
entire region by early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

To begin the long term, seasonably cool temperatures can be expected
across the region as a surface high pressure pushes into the area.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s across the area Friday.
Some of our colder locations may dip into the 30s.

The airmass will begin to modify through the weekend as the
cooler high pressure system begins to exit stage right. This will
initiate a return flow by Sunday. Temperatures will begin to warm
as an upper level ridge begins to build into the area early next
week when once again above average temperatures can be anticipated
to start you work week next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A front just south of KSGF will
become nearly stationary. The low level flow will strengthen
convergence along the nose of 25-30kt 850mb jet allowing some
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to develop after 08z, so
have some mention of vcts/shra/vcsh at KSGF/Springfield and
KBBG/Branson. Lower ceilings will also develop near the front
over the next few hours and have a period of at least mvfr
ceilings. Finally late in the taf period the front will become
more active with thunderstorms with stronger instability as it starts
to shift to the south and east. Some post frontal MVFR/IFR
ceilings will be possible at the very end of the taf period.




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