Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Forecast concerns centered on convective and severe weather
potential and timing. Overall confidence is high on convective
potential, but medium to low on timing and severe potential.

Forecast area remains in southwesterly upper level flow, while
main surface boundary resides from Oklahoma northward through
central Kansas and into central Nebraska. Airmass will remain
moist and unstable, with surface dew points slowly climbing into
the middle and upper 60s by this afternoon. A combination of
residual outflow boundaries from earlier convection, weak
shortwaves in the flow will all combine for showers and
thunderstorms today. Biggest caveat is weaker deep layer shear
over the area this morning, but NAM is showing some increase
expected later this afternoon and evening. In addition, several
of the meso-models showing convection over Kansas also pushing
southeast towards the area later today. Thus, expect precipitation chances
to ramp up during the mid and late morning hours. Although
widespread severe weather is not expected, if convection over
Kansas can congeal into an MCS a higher probability of severe
weather will be possible across southeast Kansas and western
Missouri today.

Will have to watch for a similar situation tonight with
convection likely re-developing across Kansas/Oklahoma with the
potential to evolve into a forward propagating MCS which could
once again impact southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Details
in this very sketchy at this time. SPC had raised southeast Kansas
and western Missouri into Slight Risk category based on above
scenarios.

It will feel a little more humid out today, as high reach to near 80
and dew points rise into the middle and upper 60s with lows tonight
just in the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Confidence low to medium for this time frame. Overall pattern to
change very little through the period. Broad southwesterly upper
level flow will continue with a moist and rather unstable airmass
remaining in place across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. This will keep the unsettled weather pattern in place with
periodic showers and thunderstorms, along with warm and humid
conditions. Certainly cannot rule out periods of severe weather
through this stretch, but details will not be evident until closer
to the time frame. With that being said, medium range models still
advertising a stronger, negatively tilted shortwave to lift out
of the southwest Conus and through the area Friday night/ Saturday
morning. Depending on exact timing this may be our best shot for
widespread severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Outflow from last nights MCS over NE KS moving through SW MO this
afternoon. TSRA chances to diminish mid afternoon with MVFR
ceilings improving during the late afternoon into this evening.
TSRA chances to increase once again late tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Runnels



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