Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

A fairly thick deck of higher clouds on the east side of a weak
upper level shear axis has kept ground fog from developing much so
far tonight, and will look at removing or at least limiting the
mention of fog in the near term grids.

Otherwise it looks pretty quiet with a weak sfc ridge of high
pressure off to the south. Some lee side sfc low pressure in the
High Plains does get some light south winds going over the western
cwfa. A shortwave passing off to the north and northeast does have
some weak lift associated with it, but most precip should stay off
to the north of the cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

For Thu into Fri the mid level flow gets more active with
initially subtle impulses moving from the the southern Plains
into the Ozarks. We have gradually increasing rain chances during
this time as some better moisture starts to return northward.

Guidance continues to dig a more substantial upper level wave
southeast into the northern and central Plains late Fri-Sat with
a fairly good chance for rain showers/thunderstorms with lead
impulses ahead of the main upper level wave. A sfc cold front
moving through the cwfa will also help focus rain chances Sat.

Guidance has been somewhat inconsistent on how far to the west the
main upper level trough will dig and now the general consensus is
for a more progressive/faster system (less digging). May make some
adjustment to the timing for the end of the precip Sunday.
A cooler/drier air mass with sfc high pressure builds in later
Sunday into Mon then shifts the sfc ridge off to the south and
east. Overall chance for precip look low early in the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Pilots can expect prevailing VFR conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. The intervals of lower ceilings that impacted
the region this morning will lift this afternoon. The potential
for MVFR visibility in light fog will return late tonight into
early Thursday.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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