Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141951
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
151 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Some pockets of moderate to brief heavy snow still occurring
across parts of southern Missouri early this afternoon. Earlier we
extended the advisory until 3 pm. With the back edge now pushing
into western Missouri, this looks good for an ending time.

Some areas of clearing have allowed temperatures to climb to
around 30 degrees in the far southwest corner of MO and our
western counties may climb above freezing later this afternoon.

Aloft, we remain in amplified pattern with ridging in the western
U.S. once again, and we are in northwest flow. The next upper
level disturbance was pushing over the Dakotas/Minnesota early
this afternoon. It is this feature and a surface front which will
bring the next round of snow late tonight into Monday, along with
another Arctic air mass.

Forecast focus in the short term will be with the snowfall
amounts...shifting to temperatures and wind chills during the
long term period.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018


Just on the heels of the upper disturbance which brought 1-2
inches of snow from last night into today, the next one will begin
to arrive tonight, with snow expected to start up in central
Missouri close to midnight and then spread southward across the
remainder of the area overnight into Monday morning. Snow should
end during the early afternoon across far southern Missouri.
Another 1-2 inches of snow is expected with this disturbance,
however temperatures will be falling throughout the day after a
cold front moves through during the morning. Temperatures will
likely dip into the teens to low 20s by the end of the afternoon
with wind chills in the single digits. It will also be windier
with the snowfall than it was with todays event, so there will be
more blowing of snow. We will be issuing an winter weather
advisory starting tonight at midnight and going through noon
Monday for the snow.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

After the snow, we are expecting temperatures to dip to around -1
in central Missouri to around 8 above in far south central
Missouri, with wind chills dipping into the -10 to -20 degree
range on Monday night. This will likely require a wind chill
advisory. (criteria -10 or less)

Temperatures on Tuesday won`t warm much as the arctic high
continues to build into the area. Highs will only be from about 11
to 18 degrees with wind chills only improving to around zero.

Another bitterly cold night is expected on Tuesday night with lows
from zero to 7 above and wind chills from zero to 8 below.

As the arctic high pressure system moves off to the southeast on
Wednesday and Wednesday night, there will be some slight
moderation in temperatures.

We should begin to warm up above freezing on Thursday with a
bigger warmup into the 40s and then 50s for Friday/Saturday as our
upper pattern becomes more westerly and then southwesterly out
ahead of a digging trough. This system should make it into the
area late in the weekend with our next precipitation chances which
looks like mostly rain at this juncture.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Band of snow will continue for the first part of the TAF period
with low vis and reduced ceilings at times. BBG will expedience
most of this. Vis and ceilings should improve to VFR for late
afternoon and the the first part of the overnight hours. Low level
wind shear will develop overnight ahead of a approaching cold
front. Winds will remain out of the south and then southwest late
tonight. Another band of snow will move in similar times to today
reducing vis and ceilings to IFR at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073-
     097-101.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield


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