Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 190006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
After a very cold and record breaking start to the day, sunny
skies and southwesterly winds have helped temperatures rebound by
25 to 30 degrees this afternoon. Snow is melting at a pretty good
clip given full insolation and relatively warm ground, though a
corridor of snow should remain about 20 miles or so either side of
a line from Columbus, KS to Bolivar and Vichy in Missouri. It is
this area the will remain the coldest over the next day or so.
Tonight, low level winds will increase considerably. Temperatures
will initially fall after sunset this evening, but then
steady/slowly rise for the rest of tonight. Will be interesting to
see how temperatures respond over snow cover. Given a breezy
southwest wind, this should keep temperatures mixed enough to
prevent a major drop in temperatures.
A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
Northwest winds combined with a mix of sun/clouds will maintain
well below average temperatures. Should get into the 40s where
snow cover has melted and stay in the 30s where snow cover
remains. Another cold night is expected Wednesday night as surface
high pressure moves overhead. Teens to lower 20s should be the norm.
Thursday will feature the first day of our rebound back to
conditions more typical of late November. Southerly winds in the
low level and sunshine should get everyone well into the 40s. This
southerly flow, however, is in response to a developing storm
system that will begin to take shape over the four corners region.
Deep low level southerly flow will send moisture our way Thursday
night, with an increase in cloud cover and the potential for very
light rain/drizzle toward daybreak Friday. Will have to watch
surface temperatures very carefully early Friday morning. There
will be areas at/below freezing which could support a brief period
of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain. Large scale models place
the freezing line from Nevada to West Plains...so we will be
watching this carefully.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
A milder and moist air mass will continue to advect in on Friday
ahead of the next upper level wave. The upper levels for the end
of the week will be a zonal flow. A decent wave will move across
the southwestern portion of the country into the south central
Plains region by Saturday. Scattered showers will develop on
Friday into Friday night as the area will be in a broad southwest
flow ahead of the wave. The wave will begin to close off by
Saturday night as it ejects out across the Mississippi Valley
Models indicate MUCAPE up to a few hundred Jules per KG will be
enough for some thunder with the rain from late Friday night
through Saturday night. No severe weather expected. Forecast PW
values will be up to 1.25 inches with a Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
connection of moisture. This will be plenty of moisture for a
decent rainfall event over the weekend. Average QPF will be
between one and two inches for the weekend.
The rain will end of west to east Sunday afternoon. There may be
a few lingering showers Sunday night. Models indicate another deep
trough develops across the central U.S. by early next week with
below average temperatures returning. Long range guidance indicate
more cold temperatures for early and middle of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Strong
low level winds ahead of an approaching dry front will
necessitate keeping low level wind shear at all tafs sites early
in the period.