Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 040544
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

Biggest forecast concerns are with winds from tonight through
Monday and the potential for a wind advisory on Monday. Also,
severe weather threat Monday afternoon/evening.

Upper level flow becomes southwesterly tonight as trough is carved
out across the mid section of the country. Strengthening pressure
gradient will result in windy and mild conditions overnight tonight,
with lows only in the 50s to around 60.

A very potent shortwave trough lifts northeast from the Central
Plains Monday into the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Monday
night. The attendant surface cold front will swing through the
region during the peak heating of the day. Model trends have seen an
uptick in instability parameters ahead of the front and confidence
is increasing of at least a marginal threat for a few severe storms,
with wind being the main threat. Although the tornado threat is very
low, the amount of low level shear would suggest the threat is not
zero. None the less, at least some badly needed rainfall will
accompany the front through the area, but unfortunately not enough
to put much of a dent in our rainfall deficits of the past few
months.

Unseasonably warm temperatures near 70 on Monday (For record
highs on 12/4 see climate section below) will continue ahead of
the front as southerly winds gust to 30 to 40 mph. Looks like
winds may stay just below advisory criteria, but it is something
later shifts will have to monitor closely. This will be the last
warm day, as temperatures will tumble behind the front Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

A high amplitude pattern sets up from Tuesday through Sunday, with a
large trough over the eastern CONUS and a sharp ridge along the
west coast. This will place southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks in a northerly flow, allowing for several surges of cold
air to infiltrate the region. The first will be behind the front
that moves through Monday dropping temperatures to near seasonal
normals for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, brisk winds on Tuesday
will make it feel even colder. Depending upon rainfall amounts
Monday, the potential exists for fire weather concerns Tuesday
afternoon with the brisk winds and lower relative humidities.

A shortwave in the flow then drops across the region in the
Thursday/Friday time frame bringing another shot of colder air,
along with the potential for some light snow/light rain (depending
upon the low level thermal structure) to the region. Rather
difficult to time these waves through the area this far out
though. This colder air, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens will persist into Friday, before we see a warm-up beginning
later Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through tonight. However, gusty south winds
will persist, with a few gusts exceeding 30 mph at times at Joplin
and Springfield.

Thunderstorms will then develop late tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. It`s possible that a few of these storms will
become strong to severe.

Safe Travels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

Another unseasonably warm day is expected Monday. At this point
highs Look to top out in the 65 to 70 degree range as more clouds
are expected to be around. However, any breaks could lead to
warmer temperatures.

Here are the record highs for December 4:
SGF...74 in 1933
JLN...74 in 2001
UNO...72 in 2001
VIH...71 in 2001

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer
CLIMATE...Raberding



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