Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 062339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

Main forecast concern in this time frame is with cloud trends and
overnight fog potential. Slow moving 500mb low over the desert
southwest will drift east-southeast into far southern
Arizona/northern old Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Ridging out
ahead of this will build across the Ozarks and southeast Kansas.
Short term models indicate clouds to stick around overnight tonight,
especially across the central and eastern Ozarks region as low level
moisture remains in place. However, with strengthening upper ridging
will see erosion of these clouds Wednesday for at least some
sunshine. Fog potential tonight looks to be confined to any clear
areas, similar to what happened this morning and have added patchy
fog to the grids.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

Upper low becomes cutoff across northern old Mexico as it slides
southeast Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracks from
the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. This in turn will push
a cold front southward across the area Thursday night into Friday
morning. Not a lot of moisture to work with, but enough convergence
along the boundary to generate some showers/thunderstorms for the
area, but rainfall looks to be only a quarter of an inch or less.
Stronger dynamics remain to the north with most unstable capes
progged less than 500 j/kg along the front over the Ozarks. Thus not
expecting anything severe. Warmest day of the week will be
Thursday ahead of the front. GFS/ECMWF show front to progress east of
the area later Friday. Will hold on to some probabilities across the
eastern Ozarks Friday morning, then drying trend.

Surface high pressure then builds into the area for the first half
of the weekend with a cooler shot of air back into the region Friday
night into Saturday morning with lows back in the 40s.

High slides east of the area Saturday night with a return to a more
southerly low level flow which will continue into Monday. Thus
expect temperatures to rebound back to above normals by early next
week and perhaps into the lower 80s. Another weak front is expected
to traverse the area late Monday into Tuesday but again moisture
levels look to be rather meager so will keep forecast dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 0633 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

Satellite trends indicate clearing will continue into this evening
with most of southern Missouri experiencing VFR. A few patches of
MVFR ceilings will remain, but coverage will be too limited for
inclusion in the TAFs.

The clearing skies will then set the stage for fog development
late tonight. The best prospects for IFR fog will be at Branson
and Springfield, with LIFR conditions possible.

The fog will then dissipate Wednesday morning with VFR returning
by late morning.

Surface winds will remain light out of the north to northeast
through Wednesday.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.