Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1054 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Will need to watch fog potential in the near term, mainly over
the eastern cwfa and near Table Rock/Bull Shoals Lake area. SREF
did a decent job with fog the last couple of mornings and it is
hitting the aforementioned areas late tonight into the early daylight
hours. Already seeing some fog/low stratus just of the Ozark
Plateau in southeast MO. Despite high clouds, the wet ground and
the lack of mixing should allow fog to continue to develop.

The weather should remain fairly quiet today. Humidity will
increase as a south fetch brings dew points up a bit. Hard to
discern any triggers for convection today. An upper level shear
axis to our south and a weak closed upper low over southeast OK
may help develop some isolated convection as far north as far
southern MO later today into tonight but otherwise the weather
looks low impact. It will feel more muggy but with high
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s it`s not unusual for this time
of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

The main concerns are thunderstorms Fri/Sat and then again toward
day 7/Wed.

An upper level pattern change will allow the mid level westerlies
to take a dip south over the central CONUS as a shortwave moves to
eastern Neb/eastern KS by 12z/7am Sat. A lead impulse will likely
precede this initial shortwave as well with increasing chances
for showers/thunderstorms Fri night into Sat. We could see a low
end threat for severe storm winds into our northwest cwfa Fri
night depending on the evolution of the convection upstream over
the Plains. An MCS/storm complex will have the potential to
develop as a cold front moves through Neb/KS late Fri. Some storm
winds/outflow along the leading edge of storms could move into our
nw cwfa Fri night. The SPC day 2 marginal risk into a few of our
counties seems prudent. Weakening instability overnight should
limit the eastward extend of severe weather but will watch fcst

Guidance trends continue to be progressive/quick moving the front
through on Sat and have moved up the timing a bit. The relatively
quick moving system should help limit the residence time of
heavier precipitation limiting (but not eliminating) the overall
risk for flooding. If we do see excessive runoff/flooding, it will
probably be limited to brief localized low water crossings and/or
poor drainage areas.

High pressure and cool weather can be expected Sunday/Monday.
We could maybe see some localized late night shallow fog in
favored low lying terrain. Drier air/lower dewpoints will limit
the overall fog risk.

Another pattern change looks to evolve by midweek with an upper
level trough moving into the Rockies with our upper flow backing
to the southwest. With sfc high pressure exiting off to the east
by Tue/Wed, increased deep moisture and the good potential for
some type of transient weak upper level shortwave energy moving
into or through the area will increase shower/thunderstorm
activity late Tue and Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the terminals at
times through at least early afternoon before ceilings lift. A few
showers may impact the Branson terminal. Expect areas of fog and
stratus to develop later tonight and persist into Friday morning.
There will be intervals of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with
the potential for IFR conditions.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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