Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this timeframe.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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