Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250507
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1207 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

There are no big changes in the overall forecast. Temperatures
warmed up into the low 80s at some locations today with partly
cloudy skies. A shortwave is currently moving across the northern
Plains this evening. Quiet weather will continue for most of the
area through tonight. All model guidance and high resolution short
term data indicate that scattered convection will develop to our
northwest this evening. This convection will decrease and weaken
as it moves east-northeastward tonight. There will be a slight
chance for an isolated thunderstorms or a few showers to reach the
far western areas like southeast Kansas and west central Missouri
very late tonight. This convection will move into a less favorable
environment as they move eastward tonight.

The area will remain mostly dry...breezy...and warm on Monday.
There may be a weak boundary of weak convergence that will try to
move down into the central Missouri area tomorrow. A few of the
models indicate a couple showers...isolated storm may try to develop
over the northern portion of the Ozarks. This will be very hard
due to a strong cap. There will be more clouds on Monday with
moisture low level moisture increasing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Models do suggest maybe a slightly better chance for a few showers
and storms to develop late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This
may have be because of low level jet interacting with the boundary
in the area at it lifts northward. Will keep the mention for
scattered showers and a storm or two possible across the central
Missouri area late Monday night.

A strong cap will develop on Tuesday afternoon across much of the
area. We will see instability develop of 3000 to 4000 J/KG MUCape.
A negatively titled trough will begin to move out across the
Central Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. We will be
watching the area just west of our local area for the development
of strong to severe convection across Oklahoma and Kansas late
Tuesday afternoon ahead of a dry line. Models indicated that this
severe convection will move into our southeast Kansas counties and
extreme western Missouri late Tuesday evening and overnight. There
are some uncertainties on timing and and location of best
potential for severe weather...but all modes of severe weather
appear possible.

The area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
eastward during early Wednesday morning across the Missouri Ozarks
region. The big question for Wednesday is how much are we going to
clear out of the older convection and destabilize again for new
thunderstorms to develop. If we can heat the atmosphere back
up...we can see another round of strong to severe storms to
develop over the area Wednesday afternoon with all modes of severe
weather possible. Storm total rainfall estimates will average
around 1 inch.

The system begins to exit the area Wednesday evening and night as
it moves off to east. Thursday will be a break in between weather
systems with mostly dry and quiet weather expected. Another storm
system will begin to develop to our southwest across Texas and
Oklahoma Thursday night and begin to move into the area Friday.
This will be a slow moving system bringing widespread showers and
storms to the area Friday through Saturday night. Could possibly
see some more strong thunderstorms by the weekend. Additional 1 to
2 inches of rainfall look reasonable for the weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A front that extends from eastern SD
south into central KS will moves slowly east into eastern KS
before slowing/stalling west and northwest of the taf sites. South
winds will continue and become moderately gusty again as the
atmosphere mixes out after 15z. Increased low level moisture over
eastern KS and western MO will produce lower ceilings after 12z
and have bkn mvfr cat ceilings for much of the day at KJLN on Mon.
Can`t rule out a few showers/tstms close to the front but coverage
doesn`t warrant a mention of this in the tafs for now.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA


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