Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 110903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
403 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Low clouds and drizzle (for some) continue in the wake of the
passage of yesterdays`s cold front and shortwave. Always seems to
be tough to clear out the lower levels with these more fall like
systems. Mid level heights and subsidence/sinking should
eventually aid in clearing, but clouds should hold on for quite
awhile in central MO as we clear from the southwest.

There is good fog potential tonight if/when/where we clear out
given weak sfc high pressure expected to be drifting over the

Temperatures will remain cool today, particularly where clouds
hang on in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Thu-early Sat: A warming trend is expected Thu-Fri as an upper
level ridge builds over Mid-South and Midwest with a return of
highs in the 80s late in the week.

Sat night-Sunday: A persistent longwave trough over western NOAM
will keep a cold front over the Plains from initially advancing
too far east in southwest flow aloft. However, a shortwave is
expected to move from the Rockies into the central Plains pushing
the front east through our cwfa Sat night and early Sunday. We
will need to monitor for severe storm potential given the strong
vertical shear with the approaching system. Overall instability
and system timing leave the question of severe storms open, but
forecast trends will need to be monitored.

Mon-Tue: Cooler sfc high pressure will move in behind the front
Mon, but temperatures don`t look to get too overly chilly behind
the front. Warmer and continued dry weather is expected Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mains concern will be how fast lower clouds
will clear. Will start with mvfr or ifr ceilings to start the taf
period. Clouds are gradually expected to erode toward 18z, but
timing is still in some question. Weak high pressure will lead to
good set up for strong nighttime inversion and fog potential late
in the taf period.




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