Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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452
FXUS63 KSGF 191128
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

First round of storms that developed Thursday afternoon over the
Central / Southern Plains has moved across most of the forecast
area early this morning. The portion that moved across our
southern tier of counties has produced wind damage from Table Rock
Lake eastward into Christian/Taney/Douglas counties. Storms
crossing the central and northern portion of the forecast area
have mainly produced heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts around
40-50 mph.

Next round of storms developing over north central OK will
gradually weaken through the morning but may hold together long
enough to affect our western counties with sub-severe convection
through mid to late morning.

Will be trimming the tornado watch through the early morning as
strongest storms move eastward across south central MO. Otherwise
expect another round of strong to severe storms to develop from
central OK to eastern Kansas this afternoon and affect our region
this evening and during the overnight hours.

With potentially two more rounds of rain affecting the region,
will go ahead and keep the flash flood watch going over our
western counties and have included Barry/Stone/Lawrence counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Expect storms to be ongoing early Saturday morning and into the
afternoon as the surface front shifts eastward with the approach
of the main upper level trough. Dry slot associated with upper
trough passage should overspread the region sometime between late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. As a strong surface high
builds into the region on Sunday,still looks like we will see
below normal temperatures with some location possibly dropping
into the upper 40s Sunday morning.

Low precipitation chances return on Monday as a clipper type
system drops across the region from the northwest. Otherwise it
looks pretty dry and relatively cool through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Outside of convection, think that VFR conditions will be present
for the three TAF sites today and tonight. However, convection
will be plentiful. This morning, ongoing showers and storms are
moving through. JLN will see a break first later this morning
followed by SGF and BBG.

Additional convection is likely later today and into the overnight
hours of tonight. Exact timing is vague, however, we should have a
better idea of convective timing for late this evening and
overnight by the midday update. In convection expect conditions to
drop off into MVFR range. Winds may become briefly gusty in
heavier cells.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055-066>068-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Frye



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