Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KSGF 231741

1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

The region was under the influence of upper level ridging and
surface low pressure across the Plains. This was allowing
southerly winds to keep temperatures in the middle 40s to lower
50s overnight under mostly clear skies. A subtle upper level short
wave was producing some showers over northern Missouri which may
clip areas north of a Versailles to Rolla line through sunrise,
but otherwise it will be dry and pleasant through early this

Temperatures and humidity values will be on the rise today as the
surface low begins to strengthen and slowly slide east. Strong
warm air and moisture advection will occur through the day today
with winds gusting at times from 30 to 35mph.

As the low makes its way towards eastern Kansas, a warm front will
begin to lift north across the Ozarks. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front
and continue through the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

The warm front will be continuing its slow progression northward
through Tuesday morning as the surface low continues its approach
to the region. The area south of the front is expected to be
fairly well capped heading into Tuesday afternoon. This will
become problematic as an area of strong upper level diffluence
moves over the Ozarks and a 40-50kt LLJ starts to move into SW

Instability on the order of around 2000 j/kg of CAPE and steep mid
level lapse rates will develop as well. Despite what may initially
be a rather strongly capped atmosphere, an approaching front/dry
line is expected to be more than sufficient to break the cap
around the 21-23z time frame. Short range models are showing the
potential for discreet storms that may be super-cellular in
nature. The concern with this is that there appears to be ample
helicity (> 200 m2/s2) and low level CAPE from 100-200 j/kg.
Additionally, 0-6Km bulk shear values around 80kts and southerly
winds will be more than enough to produce a rather curvy

All these ingredients add up to the potential for an isolated
tornado or two with the strongest storms that develop. Even if the
storms do not end up producing tornadoes, they will likely be
more than sufficient to produce large damaging hail and strong
straight line winds as the storms will develop rotating updrafts.

This front/dry line will progress quickly across the Ozarks,
exiting the region shortly after midnight. However, as this
happens, another surface low will be in the process of developing
and moving across the central Plains. This will bring a return of
southerly winds to the area after a brief break following the
storm system Tuesday night.

The surface low Wednesday will begin to develop showers and
thunderstorms by mid afternoon Wednesday with a training cold
front extending into east Texas. The GFS/GEM and ECMWF all show a
period from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with the
potential of some moderate to heavy rainfall. The best area for
this to occur looks to be along and south of I-44. Depending on
soil conditions, some minor flooding may be possible overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Behind this system, a brief return to winter is expected as high
pressure originating from northern Canada slides south across the
Plains to settle almost directly over the Ozarks from Friday into
the weekend. A weak clipper system is expected to move over SW
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas Friday morning as the
cold air mass filters into the region. This may actually bring a
bit of light rain and snow to some location, though no
accumulation is expected to occur.

By Saturday morning, the high will be over the region with sunrise
temperatures in the middle 20s. The good news is that the cold
air mass will move quickly east as upper level ridging reasserts
itself and temperatures begin to moderate through the weekend.

All in all this looks to be a rather active and interesting
week of weather for the MO Ozarks/southeast KS.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

Low end VFR to MVFR cigs will continue for much of this afternoon
across the area, though scattered breaks are to be expected.
Clouds will increase again tonight, with winds increasing
overnight and especially tomorrow morning as the pressure
gradient tightens across the area. Some scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible after 18Z tomorrow.




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