Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 012359 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Scattered convection continues across central Missouri, with
activity becoming more isolated across the eastern Ozarks. Have
even seen a few, pin point, showers develop across far
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri in the past hour.

Overall, the coverage and intensity of this activity is expected
to decrease in a rather orderly fashion as we lose daytime heating
and instability. Will keep PoPs longest across central Missouri
where activity will likely linger a bit into this evening. That
said, most if not all areas should be rain free after 9 PM.

Frequency of lightning has been rather low, though it remains
the main risk with this activity. Outflow boundaries will produce
a brief wind gust which will likely be more pleasant as opposed to
hazardous.

Will continue to monitor trends and update accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Convection currently underway across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks will continue to slowly move southeast with time
this afternoon and early evening. This activity has developed in
response to a weak mid level wave pushing across northern Missouri
interacting with the remains of a surface boundary. The airmass
further south and west is quite a bit drier, and it is unlikely
that activity will move any further southwest than a Warsaw to
Salem line. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning, along with
wind gusts to 30 MPH, can be expected. Widespread severe weather
appears unlikely at this time.

Convection should dissipate with the loss of sunshine, with low
temperatures tonight dropping into the mid to upper 60s to around 70.

Another short wave will then descend into the Central Plains on Sunday.
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across central MO in
associated with a weak wave moving across the northern portion of
the state.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Seasonably warm weather to continue through the coming week with
upper ridge to retrogrades to an axis from the northern Rockies
into the southern plains. The atmosphere to be initially too dry
within this northwest flow pattern to generate more than isolated
storms on Monday as a weakening frontal boundary reaches the
region...though PW and rain chances will increase on Tuesday
through the end of the work week as split flow develops on the
periphery of the flattening upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours and
beyond. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will evade
SGF/BBG, though a few cells will be close enough to JLN to warrant
monitoring over the next hour or two. After sunset, all activity
should dissipate. See above update section for more details.
Otherwise, expect light winds tonight, becoming southwesterly and
occasionally gusty late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan






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