Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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669
FXUS63 KSGF 200808
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...A Decent Weekend On The Way...But Very Unsettled and Stormy
Weather Pattern Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

An upper level wave is moving across the Missouri Ozarks this
morning. This system has brought light rain to much of the area
and still lingering across the eastern Ozarks this morning.
Pockets of drizzle and a few light showers remain across the
western half of the area. This system will continue to move
eastward today and showers will gradually end from west to east
today. Skies will remain mostly cloudy today and hold down
temperatures with highs only in the middle to upper 60s. Skies
will try to clear out somewhat tonight, but will need to watch for
the possibility of fog development. Majority of the short term
models indicate a decent setup for fog late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. Will mention patchy to areas of fog to at least
1 mile late tonight but some indications it could be locally dense
at some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Saturday and Sunday will be closer to average with temperatures
with a mixture of sun and clouds. The only thing to watch for is
the potential for isolated to scattered convection trying to
develop to our west or northwest across Kansas both early Saturday
morning and again late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late
Saturday night might be a slightly better setup of scattered
storms clipping our southeast Kansas area and extreme southwest
Missouri. Short term models indicate nocturnal elevated convection
trying to develop and move southeastward clipping our western
areas. Will maintain slight chances out west for this potential
and no severe weather would be expected.

A big weather pattern change will occur next week with a large
trough developing across the western half of of the U.S. This will
put the region and the Missouri Ozarks in a pseudo southwest flow
aloft along with a good fetch of Gulf Moisture coming up on
southerly winds. Monday through Thursday appear to be unsettled
and stormy with off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms.
A quasi-stationary front will be in the region to our west and
northwest during much of next week. There will be several impulses
and upper level pieces of energy moving out across the flow
interacting with this frontal boundary.

Depending on daytime instability, timing, and track of these
impulse, there will be the potential for some strong to severe
storms possible starting Monday afternoon over the western area.
This potential may expand further east into the middle of next
week but confidence is low on details and hazards at this time.
Will also go ahead and mention the possibility of hydro issues by
the middle of next week. Forecast rainfall amounts may be in the 1
to 3 inch range with locally higher amounts possible by next week
especially over the western half of the area. This will be
another concern to an eye on. It does appear we will be in this
stormy and active weather pattern through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Scattered light rain showers have occurred this evening and
regional radar indicates that this will persist through the next
several hours during the overnight. Will begin to diminish in
coverage during the later part of the overnight towards sunrise,
but should also see lowering ceilings with a larger push of low
level moisture in from the southwest. Have gone with MVFR
conditions at this point towards sunrise and continuing into the
morning hours Friday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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