Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

Areas of drizzle...low cloud ceilings...and fog have developed
across the area early this morning. There have been occasional
visibilities down to near 1 mile at times especially on the Ozark
Plateau where it is closer to the ceilings of the clouds. This will
continue through mid morning and then remain mostly cloudy today.
Can`t rule a few breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Temperatures
will be milder today with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

Clouds will lower again this evening and overnight. There is a
signal for low level moisture return and SREF probabilities
indicate a better fog setup tonight into early Sunday morning
along with areas of drizzle.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

A strong upper level storm system will move out into the central
Plains region late Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure will
develop and strengthen across Kansas as it moves up towards the
Midwest. Sunday will be a breezy day with the pressure gradient
developing. We may see a few more peaks of sunshine Sunday with
the clouds. This will help warm temperatures into the lower 60s
for most locations. This system will bring widespread rainfall
with embedded isolated thunder Sunday night ending midday Monday.
No severe weather is expected and rainfall will average about half
an inch to three quarters of an inch.

Temperatures will cool back down to seasonable levels for the
middle of next week with highs in the lower 40s and nighttime lows
in the 20s and 30s. It will be dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

The bigger question comes for late next week. The medium and long
range models are having a hard time with consistency and track
of the next storm system to affect the area Thursday and Friday.
One thing is for sure...the weather pattern will be unsettled
with some type of precip. The GFS shows a wetter and slightly
milder system. While the 00z ECMWF and GEM shows possibly a more
wintry solution for the Missouri Ozarks. With so much uncertainty
and low confidence...at this time will mention the possibility of
rain and snow chances for the end of next week. This will be
something to fine tune and watch for trends over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Started the day with IFR conditions,
but like yesterday some holes are opening up in the overcast and
visibility has started to come up. Expect additional short term
improvement followed by IFR cat stratus/fog redevelopment tonight
after 14/04z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA






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