Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

An area of surface low pressure is currently located across the
central Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the low gusty southerly
winds are occurring across the area. An upper level trough will
sweep east across the Plains tonight and then across the area on
Saturday. This will push the surface low and associated cold front
east across the region tonight into Saturday morning.

The gusty south to southwesterly winds will continue across the
area the rest of this afternoon into tonight. The front will move
through the area overnight into early Saturday. For much of the
area there may not be much of the way of shower/storm development
along the front itself. Saturday morning showers and storms may
begin to develop along the front across portions of south central
and central Missouri, before quickly spreading off to the east,
but the better development potential along the front will be east
of the area. No severe weather is expected across the forecast

As the upper level trough moves across the area late tonight into
Saturday morning, showers and may be a few rumbles of thunder
will be develop and occur behind the front. The better potential
for these showers will be across central Missouri closer to the
trough axis. Portions of southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri may not see much rainfall with this system.

Highs on Saturday will occur during the morning hours with
temperatures falling into the 40s during the afternoon.

Winds will swing around to the northwest behind the front Saturday
and become gusty. Winds of 25 to 35 mph with gust around 45 mph
will develop Saturday morning and continue into the afternoon
hours at times. Will issue a Wind Advisory for the entire area
from 6 am to 5 pm Saturday. Elevated fire weather continues will
be possible Saturday afternoon, mainly for grass land areas that
don`t receive a wetting rain tonight and Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A cooler air mass will remain over the area on Sunday as lows
drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30 with highs warming into
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Shortwave upper level ridging will then build over the region
early next week allowing highs to warm back into the middle to
upper 50s Monday and Tuesday.

Another cold front will move through the region during the middle
of next week. Moisture will be limited so not expected any
precipitation with the frontal passage at this time. Cooler
temperatures will spread into the area as lows in the middle to
upper 20s occur both Tuesday and Wednesday nights with highs in
the 40s on Wednesday. Highs will then warm back into the 50s for
the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Surface low pressure is currently over the Plains early this
afternoon. Ahead of the low gusty south to southwesterly winds
will continue to occur across the area this afternoon into this
evening. MVFR ceilings are also occurring ahead of the low and
will persist through much of the afternoon hours.

A cold front will move through the region later tonight into early
Saturday morning. A few showers will be possible later tonight
into Saturday morning as the front and an upper level trough move
through the region. The better chances for rain will be farther to
the east.

Winds will switch to the northwest behind the front and will
increase and be gusty again late tonight into the day Saturday.
MVFR ceilings will also occur behind the front.


MO...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.



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