Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190132
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
832 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield Missouri is currently
monitoring for the risk of organized storms through the overnight
hours.

Thunderstorms over Kansas and Oklahoma were trending stronger over
the past hour, particularly in Tulsa where INX was measuring 70
plus mph winds off the surface.

Short term models show both low level cape and helicities
increasing into the early morning hours, suggesting that all modes
of severe weather will be possible.

Will also monitor the flash flood situation closely, as stream
flows are elevated and soil conditions are moist.

A special 03z sounding may be launched to sample the increased low
level cape and low level helicity values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

An upper level low is slowly pushing east across the Rockies
region this afternoon as an associated area of surface low
pressure is located across northwestern Texas. A warm front
extends from the surface low across southern Kansas into central
Missouri. A dry line extends south of the low across western
Oklahoma and Texas. Supercells are currently developing along the
dry line and will continue to develop along the dry line this
afternoon. Storms will also begin to develop farther to the north
across Kansas into northern Missouri this afternoon near the warm
front.

These storms will lift to the northeast and the cold pools should
congeal with line segments forming as they approach the area.
Will have to watch exactly where the lines develop to see
exactly what areas are affected. The storms that develop across
Kansas will likely lift northeast into northern Missouri north of
the area. We may need to watch any lines that form across
Oklahoma and Texas to track northeast into the area.

An unstable air mass will remain in place across the area this
evening and tonight so expect any line of storms that can develop
to likely maintain themselves as the track to the northeast across
the region. The storms will likely start to push into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri between 8 and 10pm then
spread east into the overnight hours. Winds in excess of 60 mph
and hail to the size of quarters are expected with the strongest
storms. Late this evening into the overnight hours low level shear
will increase and if any line segments can surge to the northeast
there will be a meso vort potential with a tornado risk.

As the upper level energy lifts off the main low later tonight
additional storms will likely develop across Kansas and spread
east into the area late tonight into early Friday. The severe risk
with these storms will be lower but a few strong storms will still
be possible. These storms will linger into Friday before spreading
off to the northeast by Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The upper level low will spread into the Plains Friday
afternoon/evening with additional storms developing across
Oklahoma and Kansas again. These storms will once again form into
a line or line segments and spread into the area later Friday
evening into Friday night. These storms will spread across the
area into Saturday. Winds up to 70mph will be possible with these
storms and hail up to quarters with the strongest updraft. Low
level shear will once again increase Friday evening and night and
will lead to the potential of meso vorts and a tornado risk with
any lines that can surge to the northeast.

The storms will end from west to east on Saturday. Widespread 1
to 3" of rainfall with locally heavier amounts are expected from
tonight through Saturday with the heaviest occurring across
southeastern Kansas and Western Missouri. With multiple rounds for
rain expected we did issue a Flash Flood Watch for southeastern
Kansas and Western Missouri tonight into Saturday morning.

Cooler conditions will then occur Sunday into the first part of
next week and the region will be in a northwest flow pattern. May
have to watch for a couple waves riding the northwest flow and
creating shower and storm chances for the area Monday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected for this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will then push out of Oklahoma from late this
evening into the overnight period. MVFR and brief IFR conditions
can be expected around these storms, along with locally gusty
winds.

The threat for thunderstorms will then persist into Friday,
however timing remains in question.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for MOZ055-066>068-077-078-088-089-093-101.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



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