Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0118 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

Strong Gusty southerly winds had all but moved the area of high
pressure that was over the region this morning, to the east of
the area. Winds were gusting at times from 30 to 40mph and will
continue into this afternoon and early evening in advance of a
cold front that will move through the region late this evening.

Precipitation was moving across northwestern Missouri as surface
low pressure moves across the northern part of the state. The
rain will spread to the south and east through tonight as the
system moves across the plains towards the Great Lakes.

The bulk of the precipitation will be along and behind the front
with showers ahead of it on the very light side. Temperatures will
fall through the night behind the front and through the day
Saturday. Cold air filtering into the region as the precipitation
begins to move east may allow for some snow to mix with the rain
as it exits the region. No accumulations are expected. Saturdays
high temperature still looks as though it will occur shortly after
midnight tonight as temperatures fall into the 30s tonight and
climb only into the middle 30s to around 40 degrees during the

The gusty southerly winds in advance of the front will quickly be
replaced by gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front.
This will allow for wind chills in the teens around sunrise only
improving to the upper 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0118 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

Another cold surface high will slide over the region Saturday
night into Sunday which will extend the winter like temperatures
through the remainder of the weekend.

A brief but quiet zonal upper level pattern will then be in place
to start next week. This will allow temperatures to climb into the
50s for the first half of the week. This will occur as another
strong upper level storm system approaches the west coast and
begins to move its way across the west towards the Ozarks for the
later half of the week.

Models are indicating a period of rain for next week that would
make the second half of the week rather wet. This system will need
to be monitored for the potential of heavy rainfall though it is
too soon to determine amounts and final locations for any heavy
rainfall that may occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: Showers continue to slowly
track east across the area late this evening. Rain will continue
to develop and spread across the area into the overnight hours.

A cold front will push across the area later tonight.
Southeasterly winds will continue ahead of the front and remain
gusty especially at the KSGF site. Behind the front winds will
become northwesterly and gusty late tonight into Saturday.

As colder air spreads into the area behind the front early
Saturday morning, some snow may mix in with the rain across mainly
the KSGF site, but no snow accumulations will occur. A much drier
air mass will over spread the area by the mid to late morning
hours bringing an end to any the precipitation.

Skies will clear Saturday as brisk northerly wind and cold
conditions occur. High pressure will settle over the area Saturday
night allow light and variable winds and clear skies resulting in
lows dropping into the upper teens to the lower 20s Saturday night
into Sunday morning.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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