Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
126 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue today with short wave
energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface
cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast
across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this
morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this
morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast
soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support
a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover
today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough
call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with
most areas in the 40s. We should therefore be able to warm into
the middle to upper 50s for highs. It should be noted that
temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind
that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into
northern Oklahoma tonight. It looks like a rather chilly night
under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.
With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a
north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind
chills into the middle and upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave
energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves
will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region
every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with
travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of
pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving
with highs warming well into 50s. Highs in the 60s are then
expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for
next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

With fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere, VFR conditions are
expected through the period. We will have low level wind shear
from the southwest at around 40-45 kts tonight along with a wind
shift by late morning with the passage of a cold front. Some gusty
winds of 15 to 25 kts will be possible behind the front out of the
north on Tuesday afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.