Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
336 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Slightly Cooler With A Few More Clouds Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Well above average temperatures this morning across the region.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor to the middle 70s across far southeast Kansas
and southwest Missouri.

Warm/moist air will continue to advect into our region through the
day. A cold frontal boundary is expected to drop into our region
later today/overnight before stalling close to the I44 corridor as
flow aloft becomes parallel.

Weak surface convergence in the vicinity of the frontal boundary
may be enough for an isolated shower or T`storm later this
afternoon and evening. Limited upper level support/ascent should
keep overall coverage low with the better chances of rain over
central Missouri/Eastern Ozarks.

Cloud cover today will limit heating somewhat. Instead of the mid
to upper 80s we`ve been experiencing, temperatures will only top
out into the upper 70s/lower 80s today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The aforementioned frontal boundary should remain over our area
for much of Wednesday. A low pressure will develop along the front
out ahead of a short wave trough that should begin to amplify over
Kansas. This digging impulse will help sharpen the front and
begin to move it completely through the region by late
Wednesday/early Thursday.

Rain chances will begin to increase ahead of the amplifying
impulse Wednesday morning with rain chances gradually increasing
through midday/afternoon. At this juncture, severe weather looks
to be rather limited. The best chance for stronger storms will
likely be within elevated convection north of the frontal
boundary. Still, wouldn`t be impossible for surface convection to
develop ahead of the front/surface low, however, timing will be
crucial with regards highest surface based instability and frontal
passage. Just something to keep an eye on for now. It would
appear wind and hail would be the primary threat if stronger
storms do materialize.

Behind the frontal boundary, a Pacific air mass will begin to
advect into the region, which should begin to cool us down closer
to average for October later this week. Much of the long term from
then on will be controlled by northwesterly flow aloft, which
should keep our temperatures around average with dry conditions
through the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Breezy southerly surface winds and low level wind shear will
remain the primary concern for aviators flying into the Ozarks.
Winds will lighten near sunrise with a frontal passage. This front
will bring VFR ceilings to the region with surface winds becoming
northwesterly behind the front.




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