Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMPX 230902
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WELL ADVERTISED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY 3AM HAD REACHED
EASTERN MN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING IN TO WESTERN MN. SKIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE CLEARING LINE REACHING THE TWIN
CITIES AROUND SUN RISE. AS FAR AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...FORECAST HAS BEEN GOOD SO JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
COVERAGE...TIMING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WILL DEAL WITH THIS EASTBOUND BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND STILL EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE...THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS THERE. IN OUR
FA...THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...THANKS TO THE 7-10 MPH
WIND SUSTAINING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THE VISIBILITY FROM
CRASHING...WHICH IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD WITH THIS SETUP IF NOT
FOR THE WIND. UPDATED FORECAST HAS THE WIND DROPPING A LITTLE JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE BE PREPARED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL MN IN CASE THE WIND TEMPORARILY FALLS BELOW 5 MPH OR SO.

THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGING AND HENCE...ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH IN AND MIX DOWN. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR 70S THERE TODAY. LIMITED
MIXING AND COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 60S IN EASTERN MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL SPREAD INTO KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU WHILE CEILINGS TO THE WEST
SCATTER OUT. ONE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO LOWER
CEILINGS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO IFR FOR THE EASTERN SITES.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT FOR IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ACROSS ABOUT THE CENTRAL THIRD OF MN. THIS WOULD IMPACT KSTC.
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY. SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING WSW WITH PASSAGE.

KMSP...LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.