


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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755 FXUS63 KMPX 111718 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the strongest could contain hail & gusty winds. - Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The thunderstorm complex over Iowa continues to track due-easterly along Interstate 80, meaning we`ll continue to have a quiet night with just patchy areas of fog through sunrise as the only weather issue. A cold front will slowly move east across Minnesota through this afternoon & evening, although the upper level forcing required to initiate scattered showers & thunderstorms along this front doesn`t really arrive until this evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance doesn`t have thunderstorms developing across the eastern dakotas & western Wisconsin late this afternoon, & slowly spreading into eastern Minnesota through the night before dissipating over western Wisconsin Saturday morning. An ok environment for strong to severe storms will accompany the early storms late this afternoon across western Minnesota, but weak deep shear means that any storms strong enough to produce hail or gusty winds will likely be sporadic & brief. Saturday looks to be a great day temperature-wise, with cooler temperatures in the 70s & drier dewpoints behind the cold front, but northwest flow aloft will advect another round of Canadian wildfire smoke into the region. Hazardous air quality looks to be mainly limited to northern Minnesota where the smoke concentration will be greatest, but expect murky skies to stick around through the weekend. Warm & muggy weather returns Sunday & continues into Tuesday with afternoon highs around 90 degrees. Once today`s front is through the area, the forecast looks dry with high pressure generally influencing the Upper Midwest through Monday. The next chance for widespread rain looks to come Tuesday into Wednesday with ensemble guidance suggesting a low developing along the US-Canada border & tracking over the area. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at least one inch. Temperatures will be much cooler midweek as well given the likelihood of widespread precipitation & cloud cover. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Broken to overcast clouds continue from south-central MN into western WI as cigs have struggled to lift. Expecting MVFR to persist at RWF, MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least the next hour before clouds finally lift and break apart enough to achieve VFR this afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for -TSRA at all previous terminals but have delayed start time by a couple of hours. Confidence of storm coverage within CAMs has not increased from the previous TAF issuance. For MN terminals, VFR conditions are expected tonight thru the remainder of the period once the threat of precipitation moves east with the cold front. For WI terminals, cigs look to fall to MVFR/IFR following the front with CAMs and soundings suggesting visibilities falling to at least 3 miles due to fog. For winds, terminals currently to the east of the front will see their winds turn northwesterly over time as the front passes. Winds will increase to near 10 knots by late Saturday morning. KMSP...Scattered clouds at 1500-2500 feet will likely continue through this afternoon as clouds stream in from the southwest. VFR conditions should prevail into this evening, though. Have delayed start time of PROB30 for -TSRA until 04Z following latest CAM guidance. Northwesterly winds could gust to knots Saturday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...CTG