755
FXUS63 KMPX 111718
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the
  strongest could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The thunderstorm complex over Iowa continues to track due-easterly
along Interstate 80, meaning we`ll continue to have a quiet
night with just patchy areas of fog through sunrise as the only
weather issue. A cold front will slowly move east across
Minnesota through this afternoon & evening, although the upper
level forcing required to initiate scattered showers &
thunderstorms along this front doesn`t really arrive until this
evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance doesn`t have
thunderstorms developing across the eastern dakotas & western
Wisconsin late this afternoon, & slowly spreading into eastern
Minnesota through the night before dissipating over western
Wisconsin Saturday morning. An ok environment for strong to
severe storms will accompany the early storms late this
afternoon across western Minnesota, but weak deep shear means
that any storms strong enough to produce hail or gusty winds
will likely be sporadic & brief.

Saturday looks to be a great day temperature-wise, with cooler
temperatures in the 70s & drier dewpoints behind the cold front,
but northwest flow aloft will advect another round of Canadian
wildfire smoke into the region. Hazardous air quality looks to
be mainly limited to northern Minnesota where the smoke
concentration will be greatest, but expect murky skies to stick
around through the weekend. Warm & muggy weather returns Sunday
& continues into Tuesday with afternoon highs around 90
degrees.

Once today`s front is through the area, the forecast looks dry
with high pressure generally influencing the Upper Midwest
through Monday. The next chance for widespread rain looks to
come Tuesday into Wednesday with ensemble guidance suggesting a
low developing along the US-Canada border & tracking over the
area. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across
northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least
medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at
least one inch. Temperatures will be much cooler midweek as
well given the likelihood of widespread precipitation & cloud
cover. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for temperatures
10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Broken to overcast clouds continue from south-central MN into
western WI as cigs have struggled to lift. Expecting MVFR to
persist at RWF, MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least the next
hour before clouds finally lift and break apart enough to
achieve VFR this afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for -TSRA
at all previous terminals but have delayed start time by a
couple of hours. Confidence of storm coverage within CAMs has
not increased from the previous TAF issuance. For MN terminals,
VFR conditions are expected tonight thru the remainder of the
period once the threat of precipitation moves east with the cold
front. For WI terminals, cigs look to fall to MVFR/IFR following
the front with CAMs and soundings suggesting visibilities
falling to at least 3 miles due to fog. For winds, terminals
currently to the east of the front will see their winds turn
northwesterly over time as the front passes. Winds will increase
to near 10 knots by late Saturday morning.

KMSP...Scattered clouds at 1500-2500 feet will likely continue
through this afternoon as clouds stream in from the southwest.
VFR conditions should prevail into this evening, though. Have
delayed start time of PROB30 for -TSRA until 04Z following
latest CAM guidance. Northwesterly winds could gust to knots
Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG