Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 281746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The primary concern in the short term period is sky cover, as pesky
clouds over east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin have
been slow to erode. Per latest model solutions and satellite trends,
do expect to see continued erosion and mostly sunny skies by mid
morning. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by late morning, so
it won`t be an entirely cloud-free day, but certainly dry with
surface high pressure prevailing. This will bring light winds and
high temperatures around 5 degrees below normal, with readings
mostly in the low to mid 70s.

The area of high pressure begins to slide off to the southeast
tonight with return (southerly) flow ensuing. Low level moisture
advection begins to spread toward southwest Minnesota as a Plains
trough begins to advance toward the area. Could see some showers and
thunderstorms sneaking toward west/south central Minnesota near
daybreak Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

No significant changes from the previous forecast. The overall theme
over the next few days is dry and cool. Temperatures will try to
warm closer to normal by early next week. As of now the 4th of July
weekend should be dry, with a slight chance for storms on Monday,
especially across the northern part of MN/WI.

Forecast soundings continue to show an uncapped environment late
Wednesday and Thursday. However, the limited supply of HiRes models
have the precipitation tied to the two areas of upper level forcing.
One across the Dakotas into far southwest MN on Wednesday, and the
other with the shortwave forecast to move across northern MN/WI on
Thursday. There are still some timing difference with this wave,
which means that the sensible weather is still uncertain. If the
wave moves faster, then subsidence in the post frontal airmass will
diminish the chance for precip on Thursday. However if the wave
moves slower than expect afternoon heating to work in concert with
the forcing for ascent and should see more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The bottom line is storms are
expected along and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, but it
remains to be seen if that is closer to I-94, or I-90.

High pressure will bring dry weather through most of the weekend.
The latest trend of the ECMWF and GFS show a low amplitude shortwave
driving an MCS across far northern MN. That deterministic solution
would keep areas in southern MN and southern WI dry, but do not have
complete confidence to remove the chance pops on Monday since
forecast soundings off the GFS are uncapped with 2500 J/kg of CAPE
Monday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Quiet forecast period ahead with VFR conditions throughout the
area this period. Cumulus field really popped this morning, but as
subsidence is working in from the west causing the cloud cover to
erode already. Expecting the Cu to continue eroding from west to
east through the afternoon. Winds this period will be very light,
and generally variable.

KMSP...Cu will erode this afternoon. Expecting SCT at the start
and decreasing through the afternoon.

Wed Night...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA late. Southwest wind 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA early. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Northeast wind 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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