Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 242012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY SNEAK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LOCALLY AND
MOST OF WHAT WE SEE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND STRATUS.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S RANGE...SO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WARMING WILL THEREFORE BE INHIBITED...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER A BRISK EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
EXTENT OF WARMING FOLLOWING THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONTINUITY REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL HANDLING OF PHASING
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE LARGE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE POP TREND WITH THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE...WAITING
FOR THE LEADING SOUHTTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...ENDING POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER DRY TREND FOLLOWS THIS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE WEATHER CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS RIDGING AND WOULD BRING SIGNFICANT
WARMING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL DELAY SIGNFICANT
WARMING...LOWER 70S TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY 70S IN
THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE CWA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL TRANSITION TO
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS AS STRATUS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS ON THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT CIGS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR BETWEEN 20Z /WEST CENTRAL MN/ AND 03Z /WEST
CENTRAL WI/...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS BELOW 1500 FT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS IN BR/DZ SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3SM
AND 6SM...WITH POCKETS OF 2SM AT TIMES IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS GRADUALLY BACK TO EAST
TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KTS...AND THEN BACK MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

KMSP...
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR AROUND 23Z AND -DZ/BR....THEN ADDITIONAL LOWERING TO BELOW
1500 FT AROUND 06Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1800FT BY 16Z
SATURDAY...WITH VFR DEVELOPING BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS


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