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000
FXUS63 KMPX 271111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES OVER. TIMING/COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...SO VCSH MENTIONS SEEM TO DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO THE BEST
OVERALL. MVFR CIGS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL.
HAVE INCLUDED SCT-BKN015-025 MENTIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH KAXN
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH AN OVC MVFR DECK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 17 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING
UNDER 05KTS TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD MEAN
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT GET PRECIP
TODAY.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN025 CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS
ALSO THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS IN THE VCTY OF THE FIELD.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-17KTS TODAY GUST TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 25 KTS....THEN DECREASE BELOW 5KTS AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS