National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMPX 062113
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH OF MPX CWA...WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS RELATED TO
POPS/WX.

MODELS CONTINUE A VERY DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION/PTYPE FIELD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING TONIGHT...AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI. THE ONLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPS
WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD THRU THE NIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
DEGREES...AND JUST ABV FREEZING IN WC/SW MN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPS HOLD BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RICH AS PER FOG/LOW CLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH USUALLY FOG/LOW CLDS
DON/T NECESSARILY DEVELOP DRIZZLE...YOU NEED SOME TYPE OF LIFT
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT IS ABV THE
SATURATED LAYER BLW 3K. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON AMTS. CURRENT...MINIMAL QPF AMTS ARE NOTED IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IT COULD CHG BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH AND WAA.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CUTTING OFF
ANY CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN CONCERN THRU 00Z/07 IS WHETHER THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE BACK
OVER KAXN/KRWF AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SSE ACROSS
WC/SW MN. THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO GO MVFR/REMAIN MVFR...AND
LOWER DURING THE AFTN/EVENING TO IFR/LIFR. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS DECREASE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA...EXPECT THE CIGS/VSBYS
TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THESE CONDS TO
DEVELOP...ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER DZ/FZDZ/FZRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF
HIGHER RETURNS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 6Z...THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER...IT REFORMS SOUTH OF THE
IA/MN BORDER. COMPLICATED SCENARIO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATE
AFTN/EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE SW/NW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

ALREADY AT 1.7K AS OF 1730Z... WILL START OUT WITH 1.5K CIGS WITH
CONDS DETERIORATING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS DECREASE. EXPECT IFR BY 00Z...WITH LIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE UNTIL
AFT FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT DEVELOPS...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF FZDZ/FZRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...MORE SW BY 12Z...THEN WNW/NW BY LATE MORNING/AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT