Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 150009
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
609 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Tonight through Thursday we will see a cold front currently near
the international border sag south through the area with little
fanfare. Some post-frontal snow over northern Minnesota later
tonight looks to mostly dry up on Thursday as better forcing
shifts eastward, with just a low chance of some light snow across
the area late tomorrow afternoon into the evening in association
with a weak shortwave trough that will move east from South
Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

In the longer term the main story will be a significant change in
the large scale flow pattern across the continent, with fairly
zonal flow becoming much more amplified as an upper trough sets up
across the west and ridging takes hold over the east. This will
put us in between, which should make for a much more active
weather pattern from the latter half of the weekend into the first
half of next week. The guidance is in good agreement on the large
scale pattern change, but as would be expected there is quite a
bit of disagreement on the details. At this point a consensus
approach is the safest course of action, which still points toward
increasing chances of precipitation (most likely snow) from Sunday
into Tuesday.

Prior to the more active period of weather, things will be pretty
quiet across the area. High pressure and a return of colder
temperatures will settle in over the area Thursday night and
Friday. By Friday night we will start to get into return flow on
the backside of the high before we see a fairly weak cold front
push east across the area early Saturday. We could see a few
snowflakes as it moves through, but nothing of note is expected.
Weak high pressure will then be in control into Saturday night
before things start to become more interesting. We should see
precipitation develop somewhere in the region late Saturday night
and Sunday as a shortwave trough moves east along the baroclinic
zone. There is significant disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF
with respect to this on Sunday, with the GFS indicating decent
isentropic ascent and frontogenesis over our area on Sunday, while
the ECMWF is well to the north. The Canadian and MPAS are more
similar to the GFS, but the GEFS exhibits significant spread. Will
certainly increase PoPs for Sunday, but it`s far too early to put
too much stock in the deterministic GFS solution. There is
actually a bit more agreement for late Sunday night through
Tuesday as we see a surface low develop over the southern Plains
and move northeast toward the lower Great Lakes. Will have fairly
high PoPs for that time frame given how far into the forecast
period it is. It`s far too early to start guessing at snowfall
amounts from Sunday through Tuesday, but it certainly looks like a
few rounds of accumulating snow will occur in the area. It will be
something to watch over the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR clouds and some light snow as
a cold front moves through the region. Winds will become
northwest behind the front, with gusts near 25 kts during the
afternoon.

KMSP...
VFR conditions will give way to MVFR clouds and some light snow as
a cold front moves through the region. Winds will become
northwest behind the front, with gusts near 25 kts during the
afternoon and last through the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts, bcmg SW.
Sat...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR in mrng. Winds SW bcmg W 10G20 kts.
Sun...MVFR/-SN with IFR possible. Winds S bcmg SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB



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