Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KMPX 160511
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1211 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday and
  Sunday across western Minnesota.

- Dry weather persists over the next week.

- Return to cooler, seasonable temperatures this weekend into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Current satellite highlights a deteriorating layer of stratocumulus
clouds situated over central Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures
have trended higher over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
since they saw a longer period of clear skies. Winds will gradually
shift NW and increase in strength overnight behind the passage of a
surface low to the northeast. This system will bring a chance for
light rain/snow showers to parts of northern Minnesota and
northwestern Wisconsin. Lack of available moisture will be a
limiting factor for an already slim chance of precipitation,
especially the closer to the Twin Cities metro you get.

The main impacts for the southern half of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin will be 1) a drop to cooler, more seasonable temperatures
and 2) widespread winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will have the best shot for higher
wind speeds/gusts as the cold front moves through the area.

An upper level ridge will settle in across the central CONUS early
next week, allowing our temperatures to gradually rebound back into
the upper 40s and low 50s. The dry trend continues, with our next
semblance of significant precipitation coming well into la la land
of forecast models. For what it is worth, the CPC has placed us
within the slight risk of heavy snow during the period of March 22-
26th in response to the signal. Something to keep an eye on...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period with
gusty westerly winds becoming northwesterly tonight into
Saturday morning. Winds could occasionally gust near 35 kts at
times Saturday afternoon. Winds should decrease some by Saturday
evening.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with gusty westerly winds becoming
more northwest tonight into Saturday morning. Winds could gust
near 40 kts at times Saturday afternoon, but should decrease a
bit after sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

After coordination with MIFC, and WFOs FSD and ABR, decided to
post a Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon across western
Minnesota. Despite traditionally marginal RH values around 30
percent, strong winds gusting to 35-40 mph and very dry fuels
will facilitate rapid fire spread should they develop. A similar
situation could develop Sunday despite colder temperatures, but
RH may be a bit drier and winds may be a bit lighter.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening
     for Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
FIRE WEATHER...Borghoff


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.