Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 292353
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.

WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.

FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRATUS MEANDERING FROM KAXN-KSTC-KRNH AND
KEAU WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD MOVES EAST. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING FAST AND MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH WAS INCLUDED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE LOW AND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING (KAXN) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS (KEAU). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE
WESTERN TAF SITES ALONG WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS BUT NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LAST FOR
ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
STILL EXPECTED FOR 4 OR 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN LIFTING TO
VFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT VEERING NW AFT 14Z AND THEN MORE NORTHERLY (340) FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING
22 KNOTS. NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





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