Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 300752
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front.
Increased chances for rain south and east of the Twin Cities
metro, but decreased north and west of the metro. A few strong
to severe storms are possible with large hail as the primary
threat.

Early morning water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb heights
and winds identified a positively tilted trough along the
International border. Over the next 12 hours, that trough will
take on a negative tilt, while the upper level jet rounding the
base of the trough increases, and together these should strengthen
the forcing with this wave and increase the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms along the cold front in southeast MN and western
WI. Deep layer shear will increase to around 40kts by mid
afternoon, and forecast soundings show around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Couple that with freezing levels around 9500 ft, and the result it
storms capable of producing severe hail. The low level shear is
weak, so not anticipating a widespread damaging wind threat with
these storms. The best potential for severe weather is along and
east of a line from Albert Lea to Red Wing MN and Chippewa Falls
WI.

Looking ahead, northwest winds will increase behind the front, and
the pressure gradient overnight should be enough to keep the
boundary layer mixed and diminish any chance of fog across the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...High pressure will dominate the weather
scene for the end of this week through the holiday weekend, making
for precipitation-free conditions for the WFO MPX coverage area
along with a gradual increase in temperatures. As the high slowly
moves across the region, low level winds will become more
southerly, particularly for the start of next week, which will
bring an increase in temperature and moisture for the area.
However, stoic high pressure over the Great Lakes and northwest
flow aloft will shunt a compact low pressure system over the
weekend to the south of the area. The ridging does not look to
break down until beyond Monday, so have kept pops at 10 percent or
less. Highs will start out in the lower on Friday then climb
through the weekend to reach the lower 80s by Monday.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A developing low pressure center over the
lee of the Rockies in CO will steadily develop Monday night into
Tuesday while upper level flow becomes more southwesterly over the
central states. A NE-SW ridge axis over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley region will shift off to the east during the day
Tuesday, allowing the developing low pressure system to shift ENE
into the region. Its slow progression along with a deeper influx
of moisture from the South will force the inclusion of PoPs for
Tuesday through Wednesday. Moisture will also still be on the
increase as dewpoints are forecast to climb to around 70 and PWATs
for that time are forecast to increase to around 1 inch.
Temperatures will also be on the rise, climbing into the middle
and upper 80s area-wide with some lower 90s possible in western
Minnesota by Wednesday. Too early to say with certainty that there
may be a severe weather risk in the day 6-7 portion of the
forecast, especially given that lack of a poignant upper level
feature. However, given that there are ingredients already
advertised to be in place, it bears watching to see how the models
evolve this scenario over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions tonight, with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front passes through the
region. The highest coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be
in western WI late Thursday morning and early afternoon. Winds
will be northwest with gusts 15 to 20 kts behind the front. These
gusts will taper off after sunset.

KMSP...Right now it appears that thunderstorms will develop over
or just to the southeast of the Twin Cities metro. There will be
thunder with the storms, but did not have the confidence in
coverage to include in the taf at this time. Will see how the
HiRes models come in later tonight and may add mention of thunder
in future amendments.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind ENE at 05kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE at 05kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE at 10kt.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB


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