Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 012030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

With high pressure overhead this afternoon, abundant sunshine,
light winds, and dry air remain in place across the Upper Midwest
this afternoon. High clouds are beginning to stream eastward into
southwestern Minnesota late this afternoon ahead of a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms over western South Dakota. The axis of
moisture advection will remain well to the south and west of the
area through Saturday, so not anticipating any precipitation despite
the light qpf being advertised on some of the models. We will see an
increase in clouds across southern and western Minnesota tonight,
but very little sensible weather impacts through Saturday.

Some patchy shallow fog may form in sheltered areas across central
Minnesota or western Wisconsin later tonight, but the crossover
temps are not expected to be met and thus will greatly limit the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Few concerns for the remainder of the holiday weekend as a mildly
confluent northwest flow pattern prevails over the Upper
Mississippi Valley region with a dry weather forecast through the
4th. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower
Great Lakes on westward to southern Minnesota and then curve down
into Nebraska. The most significant weather event through Monday
will be a low pressure system moving eastward across the Middle
Mississippi Valley and then the Ohio Valley with copious amounts
of rain.

With the aforementioned pattern, lows/highs will only be a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity values will be in the 35 to 45 percent range on Sunday
with around 45 percent on Monday. This coupled with light
southerly winds and abundant sunshine should yield just about
perfect summer weather.

The pattern will begin to change Monday night and Tuesday as the
flow aloft backs to the west-southwest with surface low pressure
forming over the Northern Plains. This will begin to bring a
return of low level moisture back into the region. Minor short
waves will ripple across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley through the end of the week with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The low pressure system and associated
cold front will likely push through our area late in the workweek,
offering the best chance for thunderstorms along with a threat for
severe weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There has been some MVFR cigs near RWF early this afternoon, but
bases should rise into VFR levels by 20z. Otherwise, all other
locations should remain VFR. There could be some fog tonight
across WI, but very dry air in place may prevent it altogether.

KMSP...No concerns.

Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kt.
Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 7-10 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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