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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151220
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
720 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL NOTED AT 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
AT THIS HOUR OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. LARGE
MCS WHICH FORMED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN
INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
FARIBAULT AND FREEBORN COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
QPF ANTICIPATED TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION SATURATED SOIL PRESENT AFTER WEDNESDAY`S HEAVY RAIN
HAS HAD OVER 48 HOURS OF DRYING/LIMITED NEW RAINFALL EXPOSURE.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO MUCH OF CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NOTED ABOVE. HRRR PAINTING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI BY
19Z. ALTHOUGH VERY HEALTHY DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE HRRR IS OVER DOING INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ELIMINATE MOST RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD DECK BY 02Z OVER FA. A NICE COOL CRISP NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND READING DIPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A WARM AND PRIMARILY DRY DAY...AS WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES IN ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO. MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS
MN/WI LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z
MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL...ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION NOSE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES PASS ACROSS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE
JET STRUCTURE SHOULD BE SUPPLYING DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.
HAVE INCLUDED 50-60 POPS FROM 00Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...GIVEN
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE TAF AREA TODAY. WHILE
PROGGED FORCING IS SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...TRENDS
IN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW- WEST...WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...INDICATE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS KRWF-KMSP AROUND 18-19Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH
A TEMPO FOR SHRA AT EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/ THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE LOW-END VFR TO
HIGH-END MVFR. CLOUDS SCATTER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT 12 KTS.

KMSP...
WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SHRA/TS APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 18Z AND
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA/TS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 15Z...THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY 17Z. SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AND TSRA. NW WINDS 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. LGT AND VRB WINDS.
WED...VFR. S WINDS 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS