Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250436
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY SNEAK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LOCALLY AND
MOST OF WHAT WE SEE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND STRATUS.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S RANGE...SO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WARMING WILL THEREFORE BE INHIBITED...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER A BRISK EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
EXTENT OF WARMING FOLLOWING THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONTINUITY REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL HANDLING OF PHASING
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE LARGE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE POP TREND WITH THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE...WAITING
FOR THE LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...ENDING POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER DRY TREND FOLLOWS THIS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE WEATHER CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS RIDGING AND WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
WARMING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL DELAY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...LOWER 70S TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY 70S IN
THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE CWA FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CEILINGS IN WISCONSIN. THE PRECIP HAS LARGELY ENDED. IT NOW
APPEARS THE CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST WILL TAKE
PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. WE COULD BREAK OUT
OF MVFR AS EARLY AS 12Z ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
KAXN AND KRWF WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.

KMSP...

LOOKING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR CLEARING IN THE MORNING WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WE COULD LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS AS EARLY AS 12Z-13Z IF SOME OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS HOLD
TRUE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF



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