Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 200339
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
WEST COAST TROUGH AND PRECEDING RIDGE MOVING OVER MN/WI. IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN MN
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERN MN SEEING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WESTERN WISC BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW OVER
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO BE WARY
OF WARMING IT UP TOO MUCH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW MOVING ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS IT
WEAKENS. THUS WILL NEED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO
WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WESTERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
ARRIVES.

AFTER THAT...MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH SUCH
SPREAD... BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE BROAD WSW-WNW UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN. SO A DRY FORECAST IS PRUDENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST UPPER
FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JPC






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