Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 052045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI, THE SECOND IS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THIRD IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONCE AGAIN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS EVENING AND PASSING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
TONIGHT. THE SAME CAMS THAT SHOWED SHOWERS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN ARE PREDICTING ANOTHER LITTLE BATCH OF
SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME NEAR 90
DEGREE READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (25-30 PERCENT) IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN BETTER COLUMN MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDER
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD OF DROPPED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WORKING SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA BY 06Z.
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS EXITS TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z SAT. INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AND CAA AND
6-8MB 6HR PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SOME SOME GUSTS
OVER 20KTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING DEWPOINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF
THROUGH THE LOWER 20S OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA SEEING DRY FUELS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH SPRING GREEN UP WELL UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BACK
TO AROUND 70 OR SO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE BEST SHOT FOR  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW VFR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG I-35 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMSP SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 19Z.
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KRNH AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 015-020 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 6-12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH


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