Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 251936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
236 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

As of 1 pm, the cold front had moved near the SD/MN border, with
most of the thunderstorm activity holding off. A few storms had
developed near Red Wing around 1245 pm, however this is where wind
shear values are lower, and severe thunderstorms are not expected
in this area until late this afternoon along the cold front.

MLCAPE and effective shear parameters in western Minnesota are prime
for the development of severe thunderstorms. However, CIN values
have kept most of the thunderstorm activity at bay. This will change
in the next two hours as the CIN values lower near the cold front.
Although most of the CAMS have trended back an hour or two with
thunderstorm development in the west, this may be more of the models
having problems spinning up the storms too slowly. The atmosphere
remains very unstable for the consideration of all forms of severe
thunderstorm elements through the afternoon. By the early evening,
instability lowers but wind shear values increase. Therefore, the
severity may lower, but the overall coverage may increase.

Once the front moves through this evening, expect much calmer
conditions on Sunday, but a breezy west-northwest wind will

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cooler and refreshing northwest flow will cover the forecast area
early next week as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 70s.
Thereafter, an upper low will begin dropping south across Ontario.
This will bring back the threat for showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Thursday into Saturday. Confidence remains
highest for precipitation on Thursday. Rain amounts will likely be
less than a half inch. Highs for the balance of the workweek and
early part of the upcoming weekend will be in the middle to upper


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Timing of thunderstorm development remains the main challenge this
afternoon and early evening across MPX forecast area. Based on the
latest models and surface observations, thunderstorms will develop
in western Minnesota between 19-20z and move off to the east-
southeast, affecting KSTC/KRWF by 21z, KMSP by 22z, KRNH/KEAU
after 00z. The potential of severe wind gusts and torrential
rainfall will affect the airports which leads to temporary IFR
conditions. Conditions will improve rapidly behind the cold front
with VFR developing between the mid afternoon through midnight
from west to east. Gusty winds will likely redevelop Sunday
morning from the west-northwest.


Thunderstorms will a temporary period of IFR or lower are likely
by the late afternoon, early evening. Timing is the main challenge
with the best period of the worst conditions between 23-01z.
Thunderstorms may linger past 01z, but the main threat of severe
winds and lower ceilings will decrease.


MON...VFR. Northwest wind 10 kts.
TUE...VFR. North wind 5-10 kts becoming west under 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Isolated TSRA late. Southwest wind 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MN...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ059>063-066>070-



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