Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 291959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 CDT MON JUN 29 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
ACROSS MN...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG. SAID INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR VALUES WILL LEAD TOWARD AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND LIKELY INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS DIURNAL HEATING
FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS. THE SMOKE FILTERING DOWN FROM
CANADA/ERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN DOES SEEM AS IF IT
WILL LIMIT THE GROWTH/DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INITIALLY...BUT THERE IS
SOME EROSION OF THAT OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN THAT WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO CENTRAL MN. STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL OR EVEN
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 125 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR CELLS TO TRACK/REGENERATE OVER
THE SAME AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO...EXPECT LOWER /STRATUS/ CLOUDS TO FILTER INTO WEST CENTRAL WI
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE
FORCING APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
CUT INTO DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN WEST CENTRAL WI TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE LONGER TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AND
RETROGRADING... WHICH LEADS TO A FAIRLY COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW
FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS MARKEDLY IN ITS
HANDLING OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION... WITH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO EXHIBITING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD. SO...
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW IN SOME OF THE FORECAST DETAILS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT BY THEN.

CHANCE POPS LOOK TO SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO SLIDE EAST WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ALONG IT. CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ONLY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... AND SHIFT BACK WESTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS. BRING CHANCES FOR PCPN
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE ECMWF SHORTWAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MAINTAINS SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME... SO KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW. LINGERED A LOW CHANCE OF PCPN INTO FRIDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF... BUT ALLOWED FOR A DRY SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. IT/S
POSSIBLE LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOMETHING FOR
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND HOW
ROBUST IT IS. FOR NOW... IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT... AND MAINLY ONLY
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A BETTERS
SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THIS FEATURE...
BUT THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LINGERED SOME CHANCE POPS
INTO MONDAY... WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION THAT
LINGERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY AND ACTUALLY STARTS TO LIFT IT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY ILLUSTRATES AN IMPRESSIVE LAYER
OF SMOKE FILTERING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA. THIS HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A 6SM HZ AT SOME SPOTS...BUT PRIMARILY TO
THE WEST OF THE TAF AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z MON AND 00Z TUE. THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT AT KSTC-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU...WITH
KAXN AND KRWF LIKELY TO ESCAPE THE ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS...AND COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL AT THE AFFECTED SITES. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CLEAR OUT
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL STAY
HIGH ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THAT THREAT. DO EXPECT A DECENT
PROBABILITY THAT KEAU AND KRNH WILL SEE LOW-END MVFR CIGS
/1000-1500FT/ AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS LLVL MOISTURE
FEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
TSRA MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KMSP BETWEEN 2030Z AND 2230Z...WITH
SHOWERS IN AREA THROUGH 02Z TUE. PREVALENT VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDER...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE WISPS OF MVFR CLOUDS
ATTEMPT TO SNEAK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN FROM WI AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DECK WILL STAY PRIMARILY EAST OF
KMSP...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS ENE AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS



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