Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160915
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER TROUGH WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MAIN
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM
DOWN.  HI-RES MODELS AND NAM CAME IN WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THIS WAVE.  DUE TO THIS SLOW DOWN...THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH FROM MADISON THROUGH
WILLMAR AND BUFFALO.  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND
STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WARNING AREA...BUT NORTHEASTERN
STEARNS AND NORTHERN BENTON COUNTIES SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED
GIVEN MORE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL QPF PUSHING THESE AREAS INTO
WARNING CRITERIA.  THESE TWO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PUSH WELL NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER AND KEEP THE METRO RELATIVELY
QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY THE TIME SATURATION IS ACHIEVED...IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PURELY RAIN TO FALL.  WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE TAKING MORE OF A TILT TOWARD THE WEST...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.  A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR THE
METRO COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY WET. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT.  SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  SO...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT THE
COUNTIES IN THE WARNING STILL LOOK TO SEE SIX OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE SNOW WONT COME TO AN END IN WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW
FLURRIES OR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS WITH IT A NARROW
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IOWA. GFS AND NAM SEEM MUCH TOO BULLISH ON AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE
LARGE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. GEM AND ECMWF DON/T ACKNOWLEDGE THIS FEATURE.
FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.

A SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING
MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER.

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS
EMERGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S ON A NUMBER OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH. IT MAY
BRING SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEPENDING ON ITS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FROM KMSP ON EAST...WHILE
COLDER CONDITIONS AND MORE SNOW ARE NOW INDICATED FOR KAXN AND
KRWF. WORKED THESE NEW IDEAS INTO THE TAFS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BEST SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO
THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE EVENING AND BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...IMPROVED THE TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATED. MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS NNE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ058-059-061-063.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ054>057.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH







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