Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUES THIS MORNING TO THE
WEST AND THEN OVER MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
ZERO OR BELOW.  SOME TEENS BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA WHERE THEY
SAW THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
EXPIRATION AT 15Z. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE HOWEVER AND REMAINS TOO DRY TO MENTION FLURRIES. THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE TO THE EAST.

WITH THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA INTO
IOWA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST FOR A
TIME...BUT WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF AN
ADVISORY.  WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE DETAILS.  IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE WARMUP...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TEENS
/WI/ TO LOWER 20S /WC MN/.

BY FRIDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FEATURE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW ENSUING.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RESPOND BY MODERATING INTO THE 30S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAINT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO PIVOT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT COULD SQUEEZE OUT A PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WEEKEND....PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSES.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...A ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND +5C. WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF A 10+KT WIND...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREA-
WIDE WITH EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST READINGS WOULD BE FOUND
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR WARMING OFF OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER TROUGH MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND MENTION VCSH FOR KRWF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WE DO EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
INTO THE EASTER AREAS AS WELL. SOME THOUGHT AS TO ISOLD -SHSN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOSTLY. INITIALLY WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
TOO DRY TO DEVELOP -SHSN BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND A BIT GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
LIGHT WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE LOWERED SOMEWHAT AS TO OVERALL CLOUD/CIG TREND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST
AS TO MOISTURE AND TREAT OF AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT WE WILL KEEP IT VFR. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>059-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE


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