504
FXUS63 KMPX 070531
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant today, with our next chance for storms late
  Monday into Tuesday.

- Best chance for more widespread showers and storms returns on
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A textbook Summer day is underway across the region. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the
upper 50s to lower 60s across south & central Minnesota. Dew points
remain in the upper 60s & lower 70s across western Wisconsin but
drier air will work it`s way in over the next 12 hours. Skies remain
mostly clear with a few fair weather CU across SE MN & W WI. Overall
- it`s a great day to get outside if possible. Temperatures will
cool into the lower 60s overnight & mid to high level cloud cover
will build in from the west.

Monday & Tuesday... Rain & storm chances return to start the new
work week. A shortwave currently over Alberta will track eastward
along the international border through Monday night. This shortwave
will tap into the instability built in across the Dakotas &
thunderstorms develop ahead of the sfc cold front. These storms will
track, reaching western MN early Monday evening. If we look at the
latest forecast soundings across several different models, we`ll
notice that the advertised environment isn`t great - but enough to
sustain thunderstorms for a few hours. Moisture will pool ahead of
the sfc boundary and support MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg with
30+ knots of deep layer shear. Instability will gradually diminish
through the evening before dropping off over E MN & W WI. This
should cause storms to weaken Monday night as the convection
continues to track east. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible Monday afternoon/evening across western Minnesota. The
primary concern will be large hail & damaging winds. Severe chances
decrease as they move into a less favorable environment mentioned
above. Tuesday will have some lingering showers across the eastern
half of the forecast area (E MN/W WI) with a few additional pop up
showers or storms possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through next Sunday... A brief break between weather
systems should offer another pleasant Summer day on Wednesday with
temperatures warming into the mid 80s. Thursday will mark the return
of deeper low level moisture ahead of an impressive shortwave trough
over the northern & central Rockies. While there is still
uncertainty with the timing & placement of the features - there is a
pretty good signal for another round of thunderstorms & rain
Thursday & Friday time frame. This system will usher in cooler/drier
northwest flow for next weekend & offer another brief break from
rain & humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Light winds and a pool of moisture across southern MN/western WI
will be the focus for ground fog after 9z at MKT, EAU, & RNH.
Maintained the going TEMPO groups for a period of visibility
reductions at each of these terminals. Focus then shifts to
thunderstorm chances starting later in the afternoon. Following
the latest hi-res trends, kept the TEMPOs for -TSRA at RWF &
AXN, and added a PROB30 at STC. Storms are forecast to weaken
with eastward movement heading into this evening, so did not
have confidence to include thunder at MKT/MSP/RNH.

KMSP...No major changes to the 6z TAF, as confidence remains too
low to include thunder after 00z. Will likely be contending
with showers as decaying thunderstorms move east across the
area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc IFR cig/vis in mrng. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind light/variable.
THU...VFR. Chc TSRA overnight. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Strus