Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 030455
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Low clouds and light northwest winds will continue this evening.
Overnight winds will go calm and eventually become southerly on
Saturday. Temperatures will only vary a few degrees over the next 36
hours with lows in the upper 20s tonight and highs in the lower 30s
again on Saturday.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with Rap13
surface analysis identified an area of high pressure centered over
the upper Missouri River Valley. Low clouds were widespread east of
the surface ridge encompassing all of Minnesota and Wisconsin. These
clouds wont go anywhere with little mixing expected overnight and
Saturday.

The thick cloud cover will put a significant damper on any diurnal
temperatures swings which means overnight lows will only fall off a
couple degrees from where they are right now, and tomorrow highs
will only inch upwards a few degrees as well. Forecast soundings
show the potential for some peaks of sun Saturday afternoon, but
think the cloudier solutions are best at this point. No
precipitation is expected through Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

An active southern stream will bring much needed rains to drought
stricken areas of the southeast this weekend. It will also send
some moisture northward into a northern stream trough swinging
through the Upper Midwest Saturday night and Sunday. Models
appear to be in good agreement with QPF amounts and placement.
Increased PoPs to categorical along and east of I-35 late
Saturday night and early Sunday. Could see an inch or two in these
areas with less than a half inch of accumulation west of St Cloud
and Mankato.

Ridging builds back northward Monday ahead of the approaching
deep trough that is poised to send temperatures plunging below
normal later in the week. 925 mb temps rise into the 0 to +5C
range Monday so should see highs in the 40s across eastern MN/WI.
As the front pushes through Monday night, there is a chance that rain
and/or snow showers may form along the front but amounts would be
light.

Temperatures Tuesday will fall through the 20s. Gusty west
northwest winds will then prevail for much of midweek as CAA
continues. The monster snow storm that lived in model la la land
has vanished due to a more progressive northern stream which has
prevented phasing with the southern disturbance. While it is not
impossible some phasing could occur again (there`s only one GEFS
member that continues to show it), any phasing and accumulating
snow potential would likely be off to the east.

The deep trough encompassing much of the CONUS and a large low
pressure system just south of Hudson Bay will keep the cyclonic
flow in place mid to late week. With a saturated, deep DGZ
extending to the surface where CAA and thus steep low lapse rates
will reside, extensive cloudiness and scattered snow showers or
flurries will likely form Wednesday into Thursday evening. Some
light accumulations are possible, but it doesn`t appear widespread
enough for anything meaningful.

Models are pretty bullish with the amount of cold air pushing in
next week. Highs in the teens to low 20s seem reasonable after
mixing to 925 and 850 mb, even if there is a lack of deep snow
cover over much of southern Canada and the northern CONUS. Temps
shouldn`t drop off too much at night with the mixing/cloud cover
likely to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

MVFR ceilings overnight in the 015-025 range. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out from the Twin Cities on east and south due to a
mid level low pressure system near KRWF late this evening. This
feature is moving quickly eastward with weak WAA and some upglide
ahead of it. On Saturday, the low level high pressure system over
us will retreat to the east. LAMP probabilities continue to point
to ceilings becoming VFR during the late morning through early
afternoon hours from west to east. This seems plausible as the
low level wind field picks up from the SE on the backside of the
high. However, MVFR will return in the evening across western MN
along with a chance for MVFR/IFR visibilities in -sn as a large
scale trough approaches from the Dakotas. Light winds overnight
becoming SE 6-12 knots Saturday afternoon/evening.

KMSP...Ceilings near 020 overnight. Another small period of -sn
can`t be ruled out between 06z-09z due to the aforementioned wave
over SW MN. VCSH used. Confidence remains high that ceilings will
become VFR Saturday afternoon on the backside of the high. Chance
for light snow returns by midnight Saturday night due to the
approaching trough. A period of -SN is then expected between
04/08z-13z before ending. At this point, about a half inch of
snow accumulation is expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/ifr. -SN ending in the mrng. Wind SW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
Tue...MVFR. -SHSN early. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH



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