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000
FXUS63 KMPX 260549
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT INTO TONIGHT AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDER INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WESTERN
MN. MLCAPE AROUND 2K J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SOME WEAK
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
THIS MAY BE THE TREND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED MENTION INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. FRONT
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND MAY WASH OUT COMPLETELY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER JET MOVES ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DEVELOPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER ALONG THE BORDER INTO THE MORNING. SHOULDNT BE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT AND IT WOULD DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER CUTOFF LOW MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND CAPE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME FORCING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AFTER
21Z SAT FOR NOW. THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE
TROUGH/FORCING SO THE MAIN AFFECT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WITH THE FIRST SFC CDFNT HAVING PASSED THRU THE AREA SAT...A
SECOND CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA ON SUN. IT IS THIS SECOND
CDFNT THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR
THE REGION WHICH WILL LAST THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIVE SEWD FROM
MANITOBA THRU NERN MN AND INTO NRN WI LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS COMBINATION WILL
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...ESP THE ERN HALF /ERN MN INTO WRN WI/. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LESSER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO PLACE.

AS THIS COMPACT UPPER LOW SHIFTS AWAY...DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA FREE FROM
PRECIPITATION THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER...ALTHOUGH A MODERATING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. GENERALLY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S THRU WEDNESDAY.

THU AND FRI HAVE INCRG CHCS FOR PRECIP AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND THIS
LOW SHIFTS WSWWD TWD THE MID-UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INCRG LIFT DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
FORCES INCLUSION OF POPS...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TODAY CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

KMSP...

IN ADDITION TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THICK FOR OR LOW STRATUS AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB