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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151903
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
203 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

LAST BANDS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
THIS AFTN...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ND/SD MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WC/SW MN
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS WITH -SHRA...BUT DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES IF WE NEED
TO ADD TO CURRENT GRIDS. OTHERWISE...DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU
THURSDAY AFTN WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE NE FA...WITH NEAR
80 OR ABV IN THE SW. LATE AFTN/THURSDAY EVENING SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
BE DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE DRIER NE/E FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SE...A MUCH BETTER
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW AND
BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LIFT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. ON SATURDAY FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP EXPECTED. KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSITION
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOL WET WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LEFTOVER -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
WILL DISSIPATE...OR BECOME ISOLD BY THE MID AFTN HRS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MPX TAFS. ANY CIGS WILL BE AOA 9K AS LCL/S REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS S MN/WC WI. SOME CIGS OF 5K ARE POSSIBLE IN SW MN
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS N MN
WILL MAINLY SPREAD E/ESE...AND CLIP THE NORTHERN FA...BUT NOT MPX
TAFS. WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE W/WNW...WILL BECOME MORE SW AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL MN BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THRU 15Z/16...WITH A MORE E/ENE DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.

KMSP...

ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL BE AOA 11K. -SHRA WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREA. W/WNW WINDS ARND 8-10 KTS THIS
AFTN...WILL BECOME MORE SW OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 4
KTS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE ENE/E AND INCREASE SLIGHT BY THE AFTN ARND 8 KTS.
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
AFT 03Z/17.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NIGHT...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFT 6Z. E/SE WINDS ARND 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS. CHC IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. SE WNDS 5-10
KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT