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000
FXUS63 KMPX 021704
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS OF MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR A KAEL TO KEAU LINE.
CLEAR SKIES EXIST TO THE REAR UNTIL YOU RUN INTO A LARGE AREA OF OVC
MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THIS CLOUDINESS VERY WELL. IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TO MINOR
SHORT WAVE AROUND 600 MB OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST NEAR 40 KNOTS AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE THEME IN THE SHORT TERM IS RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. RECORD
LOW HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TODAY AT KSTC...KMSP AND KEAU. RECORD
OR NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AT THESE SITES. THE ONE
FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT TONIGHT IS THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA...
WHICH MAY TEMPER LOWS A BIT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MID 20 BELOW
ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
AFTER SUNSET AS WIND LIGHTEN UP. A DETAILED LISTING OF THE RECORD
COLD HIGHS AND RECORD LOWS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NEWS SECTION OF THE
TWIN CITIES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE.

THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING AS VERIFYING WELL AS
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH COMBINED WITH THE SUB ZERO AIR IS
RESULTING IN VALUES FROM 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO. ITS POSSIBLE
THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT...VALUES END UP WARMING TO 20
BELOW TO 25 BELOW BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUITE MESSY WITH REPEATED LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA AS PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PICKING UP THE
FORECAST AT MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES AS
WAS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. WE`LL START THE DAY WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SO WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES VERY COLD. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...MEANING WE`LL SEE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL HELP OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUMP
BACK UP TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO /WHICH WILL STILL BE
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR
THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS ANOTHER 10 OR SO DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY...MEANING OUR HIGHS WILL APPROACH OUR NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. THE WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUMP UP TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

THE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA HAS WREAKED HAVOC ON MOST OF NORTH
AMERICA THIS COOL SEASON BY ALLOWING THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE MID LATITUDES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK OFF FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE AND DISPLACE THE
ALASKA HIGH OFF TO THE WEST. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL END UP ON
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THIS UPPER
LOW...AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE ALASKA HIGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. SO...WHILE IT WILL WARM UP...THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO DELIVER WAVES OF PACIFIC ENERGY WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...PLENTY
OF DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH TIMING LOOKING THE
MOST GLARING. AS OF YESTERDAY...TUESDAY LOOKED GENERALLY DRY...BUT
NOW BOTH THE GFS AND EC BRING A QUICK ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC IS DECENT...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE NAM HAD ITS OWN IDEAS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO GENERALLY WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/EC.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MORE PACIFIC ENERGY LOOKS TO BRING SNOW
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT THE GFS AND EC DISAGREE BOTH SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY ON HANDLING THIS WAVE. THE UPPER FLOW STILL
INTRODUCES A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS ON SATURDAY. THIS AIR MASS
LOOKS TO MAKE A QUICK EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE
AFTN/EVENING HRS. INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...UP TO 2K...WILL
MIX DOWN AND ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED NW WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 7 KTS THIS
EVENING...AND BECOME MORE SW/S BY MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER MONDAY MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL AFT
18Z MONDAY.

KMSP...

AFTN MIXING UP TO 2K WILL ALLOW FOR THE WNW/NW WINDS ARND 8-10
KTS TO CONTINUE. THESE WINDS WILL LOWER TO 6 KTS OR LESS BY
00-2Z...AND BECOME MORE SW BY MORNING...AND S/SSE BY AFTN BUT
UNDER 7 KTS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AFT 18Z/03 BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 00Z/4.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED EVENING...CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS S/SE 5 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS NE/E 5 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS E/SE 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ060>063-068>070-
     076>078-084-085-093.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-
     064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ023>028.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT