Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 120414
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1014 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

A reinforcing shot of colder air continued to filter southward
across Minnesota, and western Wisconsin this afternoon. Moisture
was limited, but enough to generate a few clouds across central
Minnesota along with a few flurries. Due to temperatures falling
to around 10 to 15 degrees below zero in central Minnesota, plus
the added northwest wind of 5 to 10 mph, wind chill values will
drop to between 25 and 30 degrees below zero. I have added a wind
chill advisory for Douglas, Todd and Morrison counties of central
Minnesota due to these conditions from 3 am to 9 am. Otherwise, no
major changes overnight as skies clear and temperatures drop. By
Monday morning, a storm system moving southward across the western
coastline will break off a small part of it, and move it
northeast across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will allow
for more cloud cover Monday afternoon. This could also limit full
sunshine Monday and drop afternoon highs even further than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

No major changes also in the extended period with little chances
of precipitation. However, temperatures will be more seasonable
then it has been in the past two weeks. There is a small chance of
light snow or flurries Monday night/Tuesday morning for western
and central Minnesota. This is do to the aforementioned storm
system moving across the Rockies and into the Plains. As with
previous discussions, and the continued split flow regime and no
organized lift or moisture, chances of precipitation will be low.
However, there is enough lift and moisture to generate a light
dusting of snow if the atmosphere saturates faster than expected
before this system moves through.

One aspect to this storm system, and the air mass that replaces
this system, plus a southwesterly flow developing
Tuesday/Wednesday, temperatures will warm above freezing for the
first time since late January. Current forecast has highs around
40 degrees in eastern Minnesota, to around 45 in west central
Minnesota where the snow pack is minimal. These highs could be
much higher if full sunshine occurs. However, due to the source
region of the southwest flow from the Plains, and the current snow
cover, there could be low clouds, stratus, and/or fog that forms
Tuesday. Depending upon the depth of the stratus, and if a
significant inversion develops, will depend on if the stratus
layer/fog erodes, and allows for more sunshine. There are a lot of
questions on this scenario, but with the 925/850 temperatures well
above normal for this time of year, 30s are certain, but 40s are
probable.

The split flow regime will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Not until late in the weekend, and into early next week, does
there indicate any type of strong Arctic intrusions. Therefore,
past Monday, temperatures will average near to slightly above
normal. The main storm track will be well south or north of
Minnesota, leaving any chance of significant precipitation
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Solid VFR conditions throughout this TAF set. Only FEW-SCT passing
high cirrus expected through midday tomorrow then some BKN
ceilings around 10 kft possible late tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow evening. NW winds around 10 knots will gradually veer to
NE and E through tomorrow, settling down to around 5 knots by
tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...No additional weather concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ041>043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC



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