Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 201955
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL SQUARELY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FORMED OVER
NODAK EARLIER TODAY AND HAS ORGANIZED SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHED INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT TOO MUCH SEVERE
WEATHER BEING REPORTED ATTM...MAINLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS /60+ KT AT 500 MB AND 130+ KT AT 300 MB/...ACCOMPANIED BY
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL BRING GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND THUS A
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIMIT ANY HAIL POSSIBILITY. THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 KT WHICH SHOULD REACH STC AROUND 5
PM AND MSP METRO BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM. VERY HIGH TEMPORAL GRID
RESOLUTION AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. A GENERAL WEAKENING CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET
AS THE LINE ENTERS WISCONSIN WHEN INSTABILITY BECOMES NIL.

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST. THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING...BUT SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
BY AFTERNOON TO LOWER THE THREAT WITH TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...
BUT A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL ON TAP THAT WILL BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. AS THE DIGGING TROUGH
FROM TONIGHT KICKS EAST...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL ALLOW THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA TO BE KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ASIDE FROM A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE THUNDER THREAT MAY BE OVERPLAYED A BIT
CONSIDERING POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK FORCING...AND DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT BEYOND MIDWEEK WITH THE CANADIAN AND GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE IS DETACHED FROM AN ACCELERATING
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WAVE THEN MAKES AN ODD DIVE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP THE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA WHICH MAKES MOST SENSE. OTHERWISE...A
MASSIVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. TO ROUND OFF THE END OF THE MONTH. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...CENTER AN
ANOMALOUS 591+ DM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A SET UP LIKE THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRING THE UPPER MIDWEST A HEAT
WAVE...BUT IT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET OPPRESSIVE HEAT IN LATE
SEPTEMBER. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND A
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S APPEAR LIKELY IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE DOES BUILD CLOSE BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY... AROUND 45 KT OR
SO... AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

KMSP...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH... ALTHOUGH CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES COULD CERTAINLY WIND UP LOWER THAN FORECAST DURING
ANY SHRA/TSRA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT... SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR... MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S
10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...






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