Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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401
FXUS63 KMPX 142116
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The main change for tonight and Monday was to add a winter
weather advisory for snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches across west
central Wisconsin. The other change includes an update to the
wind chill warning and advisory.

First, Snow has developed across all of the region in the past few
hours, with localized enhance bands across east central and south
central Minnesota as an intense area of omega, coincided within
the dendritic growth zone. Satellite imagery and regional radar
is also showing this enhanced area of lift and higher returns.

As the storm system that is moving across northern Minnesota this
afternoon pivots to the south/southeast, expect this heavier band
of snow to slowly translate east/southeast across Minnesota, and
into west central Wisconsin. Behind this main band, winds have
increased due to an area of high pressure in southern Canada,
continuing to strengthen, leading to strong high rises in the
Dakotas. Winds have increased to 20-25 kts sustained, with gusts
in excess of 35 kts along the Red River Valley. Thus, visibilities
have decreased to less than one half mile at times with blowing
snow. This area of blowing snow needs to be watched as this
segment of stronger height rises translates across western
Minnesota in the next few hours. After tonight, some residual snow
showers, especially in west central Wisconsin, will pivot across
the region with an enhanced area of warm air advection long the
deep trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes. I wouldn`t
be surprised to see an inch or two of fluffy snow as far east as
eastern Minnesota depending upon the axis of strongest warm air
advection regime.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The extended period can be characterized as a cold period to
start, then a transition to more zonal/progressive flow late next
week. As per the progressive/zonal type flow regime, temperatures
will begin to modify to near or above normal, especially late next
week, and then a possibility of active weather for next weekend.
There has been uncertainty in the models for the next storm system
during the weekend of January 20th. Previous runs had a typical
Plains/Colorado Low moving across the Upper Midwest which usually
means lots of snow. However, the latest runs have deviated some
and I wouldn`t be surprised to see more differences in the surface
low track, and long wave trough orientation. Always check back
for further updates, but at least the Arctic air mass will have
retreated north across Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 pm CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast remains on track for snowfall this afternoon with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected at area terminals during the
heaviest snow. Visibilities will be generally between 1-2 miles
with a few instances of LIFR visibilities during the 3-4 hour
window of heaviest snow at each site. Northwest winds will
increase with gusts of 20-25 kts behind the snow which may result
in some blowing snow at the surface, especially at AXN & RWF.
Ceilings are expected remain MVFR into tomorrow morning, with some
flurries/light snow potentially tomorrow morning.

KMSP...
MVFR snow expected to continue through 21Z. Snow will be heaviest
between 21-24Z with IFR visibilities expected and a few instances
of LIFR also possible. Snow will taper off tonight with an ending
time of 3-4Z expected. Winds shift to the NW after the snow ends
with gusts over 20 kts developing. Ceilings are expected to
remain MVFR into tomorrow afternoon

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Monday for WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ043-044-050-051-058-059-066>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.

     Wind Chill Warning from 3 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ045-052-053-060>063-070-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ETA



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