Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 181959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LED TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE LIGHT...WHICH DID
NOT PROMOTE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
AS A RESULT A 2KFT STRATUS DECK PERSISTED ACROSS THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE HIGH-WAVE-NUMBER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE RESULT
WILL BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE /AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RIDGE/ MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES INDICATED. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...THERE SHOULD DEFINITELY BE SOME
STRATO-CU IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. WE TRIED TO KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
BY LATE TUESDAY...WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES MODIFY
ROUGHLY 5-10C BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 18.12Z NAM/ECMWF ARE IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
MN/WI ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WE NEED TO SEE A FEW
MORE MODEL CYCLES TO BE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS LOCALLY. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TIED TO THE CONVECTION
FORECASTED IN NE/KS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST. LATER TONIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A FEW GUST NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S AT 10G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB








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