Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 201004
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Cold front that brought thunderstorms to the region yesterday
will clear the MPX CWA early this morning, with a spectacular
weather day expected as we get a low level air feed from a high
dropping out of the southern Canadian Rockies. This will usher in
some refreshing northwest winds today, with dewpoints falling back
into the 40s and 50s with highs in the 70s to around 80. The only
cloud cover expected for today is with a little moisture up around
700mb. This cloud cover is over northern SD and will track ESE
across southern MN during the morning. The 6z and 7z runs of the
hrrr actually bring a band of precip across with this cloud cover,
but think this is overdone and unlikely when looking at the dry
low levels of profiles in the wake of the front.

Tonight, the high coming out of Canada will drop down into Iowa.
This will allow winds to diminish quickly after sunset and will
allow for a very pleasant overnight with lows falling back into the
50s. We would probably see some 40s if this high were not coming
through on one of the shortest night of the year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Temperatures will hang right near normal for the remainder of the
week, which is around 80 for highs and 60s for lows. A warm front
will lift north on Wednesday and bring MN/WI a chance for
thunderstorms. Beyond Wednesday, the next chance for rain comes
late Friday into Saturday.

Heights are building across the High Plains on Tuesday, but the
local area of MN/WI will still be under the influence of northwest
flow and cooler temperatures compared to the heat west of MN. A
dry boundary layer and sunshine should allow temperatures to get
into the lower 80s across much of the southern MN. By Wednesday
morning a surface low and warm front will approach MN from the
W-SW. This wave will bring a surge of moisture into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The 20.00/06Z model guidance has good
consensus on a band of thunderstorms along this surging warm front
entering southwest MN very early Wednesday morning. Warm fronts
are great rain makers /and the NAM gives the TC metro an inch of
QPF/, but the 925-850 flow favors areas south and west of the area
for more widespread rainfall. The surge in moisture transport
initiates convection in IA and the Dakotas Tuesday night. The band
of thunder lifts north into southern MN, but then splits as the
low level flow splits and favors moderate to heavy rain over IA,
with a second area of thunderstorms in northern MN close to the
upper jet and large scale upper divergence. Therefore, most of the
local area could get split by much of the rain, unless the track
of the low changes over the next 36 hours or the the thunder
arrives late Tuesday night when the LLJ is still a factor.

A surface high builds in for Thursday and both the GFS/ECMWF have
dewpoints in the 50s across the local area. The calm weather
should be short lived. Southerly flow will warm and moisten the
atmosphere in MN/WI on Friday as the flow from the Pacific to the
Great Lakes becomes more amplified. A pronounced trough is
forecast to track across the northwest and north central CONUS
FRI-SAT before lifting into southern Canada. Locally we will be in
a favorable location for showers and storms with the thickness
ridge moving overhead, dynamic support with the approaching trough
and isentropic lift below 700mb to go along with moderate
instability.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Few changes needed with 12z TAFs. Main change is the cloud
cover/sprinkles coming out of SD, all this will result in is some
clouds around 10k feet working across southern MN this morning.
LAMP winds match up well with what NAM bufkit soundings show, so
continued to follow LAMP guidance for winds.

KMSP...No additional concerns to what is mentioned above, with no
weather issues expected until Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds E 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds N 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG



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