Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1023 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry weather is expected now through Sunday evening. A cold front
will move through the region, but it will pass through dry although
strong winds are expected in its wake. The main story is early
Tuesday into Wednesday as a powerful storm system develops across
the region and brings 1 to 3 inches of rain across southern MN
and western WI.

For today through Sunday, continued with dry weather and breezy
conditions in the wake of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Confidence is increasing in rain late Monday into Wednesday
morning. A powerful storm system that is currently over the Gulf
of Alaska will round the base of the trough, while upstream a
longwave trough will remain over eastern Quebec. As a the Pacific
wave crosses the Rockies, it will amplify and the upper level
forcing associated with the curvature of the flow will lead to
widespread ascent, clouds, and precipitation. A
northwest/southeast oriented frontal boundary will serve as the
focus for banded precipitation, and should see stratiform
rainfall rates on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour.
Several hours of this precipitation will lead to 2 to 3 inches of
total rainfall, which should fall across southeast MN and west
central WI. This rain will be stratiform, not anticipating any
flash flooding problems. Will likely see ponding of water in low
spots in fields, and some rises on the rivers and small creeks.

Increased pops based on the strength of the system, together with
the model agreement in both time and space, and feel there is
only a 5% chance or so of not seeing measurable precip along

Looking ahead, dry weather will settle in for Thursday, and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Few changes made to the TAFs with going forecast looking on track
in terms of timing the wind shift with the low and front coming
through late tonight/early Sunday morning. In addition, confidence
has increased further on MVFR cigs remaining north of the MPX
terminals, save for a small chance for some MVFR cigs at AXN
around 15z.

KMSP...the hrrr has been very stable with its timing of the wind
shift Sunday morning and confidence is high in a 14z fropa.
Confidence is high in the rest of the forecast as well.

Mon...VFR. Winds bcmg SE at 5KT.
Tue...BCMG MVFR with -RA. Chc IFR late. Wind ESE at 10G20kt.
Wed...MVFR/IFR/-ra early. Then MVFR. Wind ENE at 5-10kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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