Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Showers continue to fall apart across far southern Minnesota this
afternoon as they encounter dry air. The next round is beginning
to take shape across northern Kansas into western Missouri. Models
have slowed down its northward progress a bit, reaching southern
Minnesota after 3-4 am and expanding into central MN/western WI
between 7-9 am. Rain will persist all day Saturday into Saturday
night, although the most intense rain should last for maybe 3-4
hours beginning shortly after its onset. Widespread rainfall
amounts of a half to one inch appear likely.

Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler than normal tonight,
but 20 degrees colder than normal Saturday with highs only in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The extended looks cool, cloudy, and wet through the first half of
next week. Things will dry out by the middle of the week, but at
this point not putting much faith in the drier solutions.
Temperatures will be near or below the seasonal average for late
May, which should help make the case that this month could be below
normal in the Twin Cities for the first time since August of 2015.

Increased chances for pops on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level system brings cool air, low clouds, and a few rain showers.
Forecast models show a brief reprieve on Monday, but forecast
soundings show quite a bit of moisture in the H900-700mb layer so
increased the cloud cover and lowered the temperatures for Monday.

On Tuesday another area of vorticity will sweep across the region
which will lead to forcing for ascent, clouds, and another round or
seasonably cool rain showers. Decreased Tuesdays temperatures as
well with a cool, cloudy forecast in mind.

Looking ahead, models are generally in good agreement that northwest
flow and subsidence should bring drier conditions across the region
for the middle of the week, but another shortwave will follow for
the end of the week. There are still timing differences between the
models, but overall not optimistic that a prolonged period of warm
and dry weather will set up across the Midwest between now and the
end of the month.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, then rapidly
deteriorating conditions Saturday as rain quickly advances north
across MN and WI. IFR conditions are expected within a few hours
after the onset of the rain.

KMSP...Cigs will gradually deteriorate through the period, with
MVFR as the rain begins early Saturday morning to IFR by mid to
late morning.

Sun...MVFR. Chc -shra. Wind WNW at 15G25kt.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/-shra. Wind NW at 5-10kt.
Tue...VFR. Chc MVFR/-shra. Wind N 5-10 kts.




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