Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 132342
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

After two weeks, temperatures have finally risen above normal.
Upper 20s, to lower 30s were widespread across central and
southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin. The main
concern tonight, and into Wednesday is the possibility of fog, and
stratus forming as some of the snow has melted and moisture near
the surface increases. The main issue is that humidity levels in
the boundary layer remain very dry this afternoon, or at least
drier than expected for the formation of fog/low clouds and
stratus. Therefore, kept clouds/fog to a minimum, and kept close
to previous highs in the 30s, and mid 40s across the region.
However, some of these readings could be a few degrees cooler if
the cloud cover is much greater.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The extended period continues to be uncertain in terms of
precipitation as the split flow regime remains over the CONUS.
Temperatures will be a roller coaster as highs drop back into the
teens on Thursday, but rebound into the 30s over the weekend. This
is due to the wavy pattern and a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Not until
late in the weekend, and into early next week does the flow
become more southwest aloft and the split flow regime abates some.

Confidence is high that a strong upper ridge will hold across the
Gulf of Mexico for later this week, and into the first part of
the weekend. This mean upper ridge will begin to move across
Florida, and over the Bahamas next week and strengthen. Thus, the
wavy pattern will become more southwest aloft across the southeast
1/3 of the nation. This southwest flow is a milder flow for our
region, and more unsettled in terms of getting more chances of
precipitation. In addition, with the milder flow aloft,
precipitation type may become an issue next week. This is
dependent on where the surface boundary is established and how the
mean flow around 5k becomes.

Even though the pattern from Wednesday night, through the upcoming
weekend is not conducive on anything widespread in terms of
precipitation, there are a few weak systems that may provide light
snowfall. One will occur Thursday as the interaction of the upper
jet and weak forcing develops briefly, and a slightly better
chance Sunday as a more pronounced surface boundary moves across
the area. Confidence remains low on either case, but depending
upon the orientation of the upper jet this weekend, and as the
flow slowly becomes more southwest, may allow for better
organization of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018
VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for some low
stratus/fog to develop tomorrow as relatively warm air moves
across the snowpack. At this time only have 6sm and few015, but
will have to watch in case conditions worsen.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for some low
stratus/fog to develop tomorrow as relatively warm air moves
across the snowpack. At this time only have 6sm and few015, but
will have to watch in case conditions worsen.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR. Chc -SN/IFR. Winds NW 15G20 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR/ Chc -SM/MVFR. Winds SW 15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB



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