Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
229 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER WEATHER WINDING UP THIS EVENING WILL SET UP A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID DECEMBER. BY
MIDWEEK...A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE
STATE...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. STORMS WILL PUSH A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND COULD END UP IN A
SNOWY FINISH NEXT SUNDAY...AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES
ACROSS NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EN
ROUTE TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS VERTICALLY STACKED
SURFACE LOW REACHES MAXIMUM STRENGTH OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS THE LAST OF THE
WRAP AROUND SNOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE NEAR THE COLORADO LINE.
LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER MOVING OVER RATON PASS...AND ROUNDS OF
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
MID EVENING. RATON PASS SNOW ENDING...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING...THROUGH MID EVENING.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC STORY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NEXT WORK WEEK. STORM SYSTEM
EXITING NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING...LEAVING BULK OF THE STATE UNDER SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TO CENTRAL IDAHO MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RIDGE WILL SHEAR EAST AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM INTERIOR
ALASKA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE BAJA SOUTHERN TIP STARTS TO
DRIFT EAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THIS COMPLEX WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAIN EVENT BEHIND
IT DIGGING SOLIDLY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SWEEPING
LARGE AND AGGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TROUGH CORE IN THE HEART OF TEXAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEW MEXICO...AND
SHEAR ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFYING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY WILL FORM BROAD AND DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DIFFERENCES EMERGING FROM MONDAY ONWARD...AS DOMESTIC GFS WILL
MOVE THIS SYSTEM STRONGLY TO THE EAST...ENDING UP AS A LARGE SCALE
OPEN TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF...IN CONTRAST...KEEP ACTION MUCH
FURTHER WEST WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY BY
MIDWEEK. IMPLICATIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT...AND WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS
CAREFULLY TO SEE HOW NEXT WEEKEND WILL WIND UP HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO FOLLOW.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS BRISK NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE EAST DECREASES...AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN MID
DECEMBER NORMALS. LAST OF THE SNOW COVERED AT RATON PASS THROUGH
MID EVENING BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST ALSO DROPPING OFF THROUGH MID EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDING IN MODEST NEGATIVE TILT FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN IDAHO...AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR
MID DECEMBER...WITH HAZY CLOUD WORKING IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SOME NORTHWEST BREEZINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS NEXT INBOUND TROUGH APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLAY THIS ROUND WILL KEEP SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MODEST
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWEST BREEZES NEAR
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE ARE
A REASONABLE BET. FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS OUT OF ARIZONA
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT HEADING TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY MODEST AS THIS
LEADING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MID DECEMBER NORMALS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE CALIFORNIA
SIERRA NEVADA AND DIGS INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BROAD SNOW COVERAGE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE
RAINIER EASTERN PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHOW UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCAL
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WILL DROP MOST SPOTS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MID DECEMBER NORMALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STORM CORE OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY...AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM. COOL DIP THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TO LATE DECEMBER NORMALS ON
SATURDAY. DAYTIME WIDESPREAD HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND RAIN ELSEWHERE
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AT NIGHT WILL START TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A QUICK BREAK FROM THE FUN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. BREAK ON SATURDAY...BUT NEXT INBOUND SYSTEM WILL ENCROACH
ON NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY DAYTIME WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
EXPANSION TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SNOW
CHANGEOVER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTNESS LACKING IN THESE LATE WEEK SYSTEMS...WIND
SPEEDS AND BLOWING SNOW ISSUES SHOULD BE...RESPECTIVELY...MODEST
AND LOCALIZED.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GOING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES
CORNERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS POOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVES OVER. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEYS AND BASIN AREAS TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WILL HELP BUMP UP VENTILATION RATES
INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND REGARDING THE WAVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NW QUARTER
OF NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY...SPREADING PRIMARILY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE LIKELY ABOVE 6000 FEET AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THIS COULD BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR A MAJOR SYSTEM ARE THERE...PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE...SLOW MOVING AND COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WRN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WITH GUSTS
TO 55KT POSSIBLE. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE OVR NE QUARTER OF NM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS/AREAS OF SNOW DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN WRN AND NRN MTN VALLEYS AFTER 08Z
MONDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  19  42  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  14  41  16  47 /  20   5   5   5
CUBA............................  13  42  18  46 /   5   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  13  46  16  52 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  13  44  15  49 /   5   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  15  46  18  52 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  20  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  56  28  57 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................   8  38  12  44 /  20   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  41  23  44 /   5   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  19  42  22  45 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  10  39  13  42 /  20   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................   9  35  15  42 /  30   5   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  39  11  44 /  20   5   0   0
TAOS............................  11  40  13  46 /  20   0   0   0
MORA............................  17  44  19  47 /  10   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  19  45  21  50 /  10   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  19  40  23  45 /  10   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  21  43  23  48 /   5   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  23  44  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  26  48  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  23  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  23  48  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  49  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  47  28  52 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  28  52  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  23  42  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  44  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  44  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  51  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  29  51  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  18  40  17  44 /  40   5   5   0
RATON...........................  19  44  16  47 /  20   0   5   0
SPRINGER........................  19  45  19  48 /  10   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  19  46  20  48 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  26  47  23  48 /  20   5   0   0
ROY.............................  24  45  22  48 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  25  49  24  51 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  51  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  25  52  24  54 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  53  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  27  55  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  30  62  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  28  56  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  27  55  28  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521>523-533>537.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ524-526-529-532-538>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ527.

&&

$$

SHY







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