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000
FXUS65 KABQ 130324
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
924 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
LINGERING SPRINKLES IN AND AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...606 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA AND PERHAPS AND ISOLD SHORT LIVED -TSRA OR TWO WILL
LINGER TIL 02 TO 03Z ACROSS MUCH OF N AND CENTRAL NM WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING FAR NW AND NE NM, A FEW ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
GUSTS MAY STILL REACH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT LITTLE ACTUAL RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON MIDDAY. AFTER 19Z MON ONCE AGAIN A FEW -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL DOMINATE. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013...
THE WARMING/DRYING TREND CONTINUES...WITH 24H TEMP CHANGE VALUES
UP FROM YESTERDAY AND 24H DEWPOINT TEMP CHANGE VALUES GENERALLY
DOWN. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR +10C...OR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE TREND IS DOWN FROM YESTERDAY...
WITH NO LIGHTNING AS OF 3PM AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE DOWNTREND
ON MONDAY. VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND
CERTAINLY NO WETTING PRECIPITATION (>= 0.10 INCH).

TUESDAY IS SHAPING-UP TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY...
UNFORTUNATELY BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO PULLS NORTHEAST OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRANSITION
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...WETTING RAINS AS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FROM AT LEAST 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RECYCLING OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
ANOTHER...BUT MORE LIMITED ROUND OF MAINLY DRY DAYTIME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BEFORE
LEVELING-OFF. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE FORECAST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. 11

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN CHANGES
TO WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME MODELS REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BUT
MODEL TREND IS TOWARD WINDIER AND DRIER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS EASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESULTING VENT
RATES. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE DUE WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING BY SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT
RAIN. A ROUGE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BEGINS TO SLIDE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE BUT LITTLE IF NO NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASE. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
AT THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER...HOWEVER...LIKELY
TO IMPEDE A WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING EVENT.

BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO NE NM BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW FOR WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...PUSHING UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR WIND BUT THE TREND TOWARD
STRONG WINDS CONTINUES AND WITH HIGH HAINES AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO DURING PEAK
HEATING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES COMBINING WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$