Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 112124
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. TWO STORMS WILL IMPACT NM...THE FIRST ONE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL BRING SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST AND NORTH ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST. IT IS THE SECOND STORM THAT WILL PACK THE BIGGER PUNCH...AS
IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
IN AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE
POSITIVE THING ABOUT THE CLOUDS IS THEY HAVE HELD WINDS LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL THIN TONIGHT LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NM SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM IS OFF THE CA COAST CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CROSS NM AS AN OPEN WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY SPOTTY AND MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RATHER WEAK DISTURBANCE.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE WEST AND NORTH...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE CRANKING BACK UP WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER A LARGE AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HIGH WILL APPROACH RECORDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIGHTS
ARE THEN SET ON THE SECOND...MORE ROBUST...STORM. IT WILL DROP
SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEPART MONDAY. A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS SHAPING UP TO
BE SIGNIFICANT...AS MODELS ARE ALL STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND
FEATURE. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND EVENTUALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT EAST SLOPES. WHILE ITS
EARLY FOR EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS...UP TO A FOOT IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES...AS WELL
AS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL WITH
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO.

THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY WITH DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY...EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS EVIDENT IN MORNING SOUNDINGS...CIRA PW
PRODUCTS AND AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AND EASTERN PLAINS. EVIDENCE OF YESTERDAYS WEAK BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
GONE AS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS NEARLY SCOURED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...
A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW....CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SPREADING OVER NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THEN STEADILY
STRENGTHEN OVER MOST ZONES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...DESPITE MODEST COOLING AND MOISTURE INCREASES...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
THOUGH A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DECIDE IF
THIS AREA SHOULD BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING. POSSIBLY MORE OF
A PROBLEM IN THIS AREA COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OR VIRGA SHOWERS...WITH EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NEW
MEXICO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND TEMPERATURES COOL ALL ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY...
WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST.  GAP WINDS
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...SOME WETTING RAIN...AS A DECREASE IN
HAINES RESULT IN A FIRE SLOWING PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS BRING DRIER...WINDIER AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS BACK TO MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON BREEZES UP TO 20
KTS WILL FAVOR WESTERN CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER MOSTLY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH COULD DEVELOP BY MID DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES AT
KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  73  38  71 /   0  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  34  67  35  65 /   5  10  10  20
CUBA............................  35  68  36  66 /   5  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  34  71  32  68 /   5  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  31  67  29  62 /   5  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  34  72  34  67 /   5  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  37  71  34  65 /   5   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  37  77  36  75 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  28  60 /   5  20  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  69  41  64 /   5   5  10  20
PECOS...........................  40  68  40  61 /   5   5  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  31  68  32  63 /   5  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  32  61  26  52 /   5  10  10  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  32  63  30  57 /   5  10  10  30
TAOS............................  33  69  33  65 /   5   5  10  20
MORA............................  39  68  39  61 /   5   5  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  39  75  37  71 /   5   5   5  20
SANTA FE........................  41  71  39  64 /   5   5  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  41  74  39  71 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  76  46  73 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  77  48  74 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  79  43  76 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  46  76 /   0   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  80  45  77 /   0   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  49  77  47  76 /   0   5   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  51  82  47  79 /   0   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  74  45  69 /   5   0  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  46  74  44  70 /   5   5  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  75  40  69 /   5   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  73  41  65 /   5   0  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  75  43  69 /   0   0  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  78  46  73 /   5   0   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  47  72  45  67 /   5   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  38  74  37  52 /   5   5  20  70
RATON...........................  37  78  38  62 /   5   5  10  40
SPRINGER........................  39  78  39  63 /   5   5  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  74  42  61 /   5   5  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  47  84  47  56 /   5   5  10  30
ROY.............................  45  80  43  61 /   5   5  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  47  84  46  69 /   5   0  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  47  83  47  73 /   5   0   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  88  48  72 /   5   0  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  46  85  50  74 /   5   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  48  86  51  77 /   5   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  89  51  79 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  51  93  53  85 /   5   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  49  83  50  78 /   5   0   5   5
ELK.............................  49  77  48  72 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-106>109.

&&

$$

40





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