Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142339 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Four Corners high centered near Las Vegas, NV. Drier air aloft
continues to work in from the east, confining convection to northern
and southwestern NM. Isolated storms will continue mainly north of
I-40 and across the southwest mountains through 15/06Z. The dry air
aloft from the east will spread nwwd on Saturday, confining most
convective activity to far northern and western areas along with the
south-central mountains. Most TAF locations will likely not see
impacts from thunderstorms Saturday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist for the next
week, but storm motions will vary from day to day. For the rest of
today, storms will favor northern and western areas, but an isolated
storm or two is possible elsewhere. Storm coverage should increase
over the weekend and especially into next week as the upper high
shifts eastward. Locally heavy rain will be possible each afternoon
due to ample moisture and slow storm movement. Temperatures will be
near to just below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s crop of showers and thunderstorms are a bit sub-par thus far
due to an area of subsidence moving over central NM ahead of the
easterly wave. The north and west will continue to be favored for
storms through the evening, but areas from ABQ to the Sandias and
points south and eastward will largely miss out on precip today.

The upper high will meander around northern AZ/southern UT/southern
NV through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak upper low over Colorado
that has likely developed due to convection, will meander around
south central and southeast CO. All-in-all, these two features will
make storm motions slow and squirrelly, but won`t do too much to
increase precipitation over NM. The area of dry air/subsidence will
likely persist on Saturday across portions of central and eastern
NM, but this should not be a factor on Sunday. Hence, should see a
gradual increase in storm coverage from today over the weekend.
Given PWATS near 1" and slow steering flow, expect some heavy rains
with the stronger storms.

On Monday, the upper high starts to shift eastward, but it more or
less sprawling from southern Utah to the Texas Panhandle.
Fortunately, the ECWMF in particular, is still set on shifting the
upper high to the east of NM, which opens the door for the better
monsoonal moisture to move up from Mexico into western and central
NM. Unfortunately, the GFS introduces doubt by keep the high over
Colorado much longer, and even pushes a dry slot into at least
eastern NM around the high on Wednesday. Since the ECMWF has been
more consistent run-to-run, largely going with this scenario and
hope it`s not just wish-casting. At any rate, if the ECMWF pans out,
the risk for heavy rainfall will increase next week, as will storm
coverage. If the GFS works out, it may just be more of the same,
though the steering flow would generally shift any of the storms
that develop over the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande
Valley, so all hope is not lost.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern through next week with deeper sub-tropical
moisture coming into NM from the south next week. In general,
showers and thunderstorms will favor western and central areas each
afternoon and evening, with widespread wetting rain footprints and
the potential for localized flash flooding increasing through the
forecast period.

Upper low spinning counter-clockwise on satellite images in CO while
mid to high level moisture from an easterly wave is trying to come
into southeast NM. But drier air seen on satellite to the northwest
of this wave will put the kibosh on storm activity across our
southeast zones this evening and again Saturday afternoon and
evening. But western and northern areas will see their fair share of
activity well into tonight and again Saturday afternoon into the
night. Good RH recoveries tonight and Saturday night.

Sunday through next week will be active with widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day. The stubborn high to our west and northwest
will gradually give way to a developing center of high pressure over
the central U.S. The ECMWF continues to lead the way with this
scenario, while the GFS remains sluggish, taking until the middle of
next week to produce higher pressures to out east. An easterly wave
shown on the ECMWF late next could help bring in additional moisture.

Temperatures through the forecast period will remain close to normal.
Pockets of fair to poor ventilation rates will plague the western
and northern higher terrain otherwise rates will be good or better.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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