Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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049
FXUS65 KABQ 090525
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1025 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TO THE WEST OF NM WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD CONTINUING THE DRY AND MOSTLY
LIGHT WIND WX PATTERN AREAWIDE. RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS AND
NO AVIATION HAZARDS OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL CHANGE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVERALL...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LONGER RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK THAT
WOULD BRING COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEST COAST RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
WEAKENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR
WARMING/DRYING TREND TO PERSIST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST OVERALL...WITH HIGHS 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST. PWATS WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNTREND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO BELOW 0.10" (WELL BELOW NORMAL)...FROM
THIS MORNING`S MEASURED 0.18". KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED
A 700MB TEMP OF +4C AND 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
700MB TEMPS OF +2 TO +5C PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECT
SOME SNOW MELT...ESPECIALLY MID SLOPES UP TO AROUND 10K FEET.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS DIVING IT SOUTH OFFSHORE OF SOCAL/BAJA AND
CLOSING-OFF A LOW WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE END RESULT IS A COOLER/WINDIER ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLOUDIER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW PULLING E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
TAKE-AWAY IS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT
BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE INLAND NW AND GREAT BASIN
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVG
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS.

VENTILATION RATES WILL BE IN THE POOR RANGE MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM. A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO ERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HELPING TO IMPROVE VENT RATES SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NM.

LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MODERATE WEST WINDS ACROSS ERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPEARS IN STORE FOR ERN NM
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE BEYOND SATURDAY WITH HOW TO HANDLE AN
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
TRIES TO SPLIT THIS TROUGH INTO TWO WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
PHASING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SW. THE ECWMF...HOWEVER...KEEPS THESE FEATURES
SEPARATE....WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS NRN NM. CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN ERN PACIFIC CONVECTION. THIS TYPE OF SHIFT WOULD LEAD TO A
MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS SHIFTS
EAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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