Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271129 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FOG DEVELOPING AT KROW...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH POTENTIAL TO GO DENSE
LIFR BETWEEN 12-15Z BEFORE IMPROVING RAPIDLY BACK TO VFR.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION FORECAST AT KGUP AND
KFMN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KSAF...KAEG AND
KABQ AS WELL...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
WITH MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO KEEPING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST. VFR
CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. STORM CHANCES SHIFT EAST TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION OVER CENTRAL NM BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW OVER WEST TX AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN NM REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
SIERRA NEVADA INCHES EWD. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ARE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
A GOOD BET OVER WRN NM TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF A 70KT JET MOVES IN
FROM ERN AZ. 06Z NAM12 INDICATING THAT AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR WRN NM TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH AND
NEWD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS LIKELY
OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.

00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATING THAT PERHAPS MORE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
WORK IN BEHIND TONIGHT`S INITIAL WAVE/JET STREAK FOR SUNDAY.
STILL KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE HIGH SIDE AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND COMBINE WITH ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL END UP MOVING NEWD AT A GOOD CLIP.
AGAIN...RELATIVELY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A FEW STRONG STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO NRN AZ/SRN UT MONDAY
MORNING. RELATIVELY STRONG (95KT) JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO WRN NM MONDAY MORNING...QUITE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN
ORGANIZED LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL EXPAND AND
MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EWD.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH DRY WESTERLIES MOVING OVER NM. GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH COLORADO. A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER COULD RESULT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING DOWN
A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER-MAKER
FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND THE END OF THE
2014 NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON.

ABOVE NORMAL PWATS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL
PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO INCLUDE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER
EAST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND UP
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SPREAD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

PWATS WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH-IN.
HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE
THE DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ON...HAINES VALUES WON`T GET TOO
HIGH...GENERALLY 3-4.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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