000
FXUS64 KAMA 142342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ SCT SHOWERS WERE LIFTING NORTHWARD...INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS
THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BYPASS THE KAMA TERMINAL. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE INHERITED VCSH IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AFFECTING EITHER KDHT/KGUY LOOK SLIM SO WILL KEEP VCSH OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THESE TWO TERMINALS AS WELL. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED BY
15Z SAT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
ANY POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...AS THE PANHANDLES LOOK TO BE HEADING INTO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WORKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY HAS
NUDGED THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD...OPENING THE
DOOR FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW TO RIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THIS LOW AND ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE...BUT THUS FAR NOTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAS REACHED THE GROUND. INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SOUTH TO 90S NORTH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW WILL BUMP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN MAY SEE A LULL AROUND
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
TEAM WITH INCREASING FORCING FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW. LIMITED
INSTABILITY /CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/ SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM
OCCURRING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
PLACE...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. FARTHER WEST...ONGOING NM AND CO
HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION MAY SLIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OPENING UP
INTO A TROUGH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN OK. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST INTO OK. HAVE REFLECTED THIS QUICKER EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE LATEST FORECAST. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT WEST
FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OUT OF CO AND NM AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. MAIN MCS LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD
RIDE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30
KTS/...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED...LEADING TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES OR EASTERN NM WILL HELP KEEP DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES /DEPENDING
ON WHERE IT ACTUALLY SETS UP/. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES
EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST ABOARD
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AIDING PRECIP CHANCES. AN INCREASE IN BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE. A
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...BENEATH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
OF FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW /AIDED BY
ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL RIPPLES/ THEN PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS TIME.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW...BUT MAY STILL SEE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. WILL KEEP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY AS MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING
EITHER OVER THE AREA...OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH INCREASED
CAPPING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY...SO IF CAPPING DOESN/T END UP BEING TOO STRONG...WE
COULD END UP SEEING SOME ISOLATED STORMS IF ANY DISTURBANCES RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. TOO MANY IFS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE/LL THEN SEE A REBOUND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK PER THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OR INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RETURNING
RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH GREEN UP OF FUELS FROM LAST WEEK/S RAINS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/15