Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the 12Z TAF cycle.
There is some concern as high level clouds clear that a MVFR to IFR
stratus deck could build into KAMA. Confidence was not high enough to
place in prevailing, but regional satellite shows the stratus slowly
building northward. If the stratus takes too long to develop then
mixing will prevent any degradation to flight categories. A relaxed
pressure gradient should help to keep winds at KGUY and KDHT around
and slightly below 12kt throughout this TAF cycle. The stronger
gradient across the southern Texas Panhandle will supply for some
stronger gusts in the 25kt range. These gusts will drop out just
after 00Z with winds remaining below 10kt for the remainder of this
TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/

A taste of summer is in store for the Panhandles
Today as high temperatures increase into the lower to mid 90s.
These warm temperatures could even be record breaking as our
record high for Amarillo today is 88 set in 1999; Borger 92 set in
1965; and Dalhart 87 set in 1999. Our winds across the area wont
be a strong as yesterday`s as a lee side low moves from Colorado
into Kansas. The movement of this low will keep the surface
pressure gradient slightly more relaxed across the Oklahoma and
northern Texas Panhandles while the gradient is stronger for the
southern Texas Panhandle. Overall, we are looking at 5 to 10 mph
winds across the northern portion of the combined Panhandles while
the southern part will be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Latest upper level analysis places high pressure with broad anti-
cyclonic flow centered over the Baja Peninsula with weak zonal
flow over the southern Rockies and out over the Panhandles. This
will keep at least weak subsidence in place over the area through
the weekend and into Monday. Another lee trough will develop
Sunday resulting in increased southwesterly winds. Very dry air
aloft will mix down each afternoon helping to shift higher
dewpoints to the east. The downsloping winds will once again
result in near record high temperatures with 850mb temperatures
near 30 degrees Celsius.

A jet streak currently digging south around a low pressure system off
the Canadian Pacific coast will continue to dig southward
over the next few days resulting in a trough moving over the Rockies
Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a stronger lee low is
expected to develop Monday afternoon which will result in even
stronger downsloping winds and very dry, hot conditions with once
again near or above record highs.

A dry surface cold front is progged to move through early Tuesday
with a reinforcing shot of cool air on Thursday. There is some
differences in the models especially going into Thursday. The GFS is
slower with the advancement of a developing shortwave on Thursday
resulting in better return flow and more moisture in the area for
precip chances. The ECMWF and Canadian are much drier as they
shift shortwave east much faster. At this time did include slight
pops across east CWA Thursday with a reduction in the areal extent
given by blend. Either way much cooler conditions can be expected
Tuesday through the end of the week with near average

Spotty elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Relative humidities are
anticipated to drop below 20 percent west of a Clarendon to Lipscomb
line however, 20-ft winds will be fairly light except for winds
around 15 mph across the southwestern Texas Panhandles. Fuels in
this area have continued to dry given the lack of any appreciable
rain in the past several weeks and recent dry cold frontal passages.
This spotty elevated fire weather conditions should diminish by 5 PM
CDT as the pressure gradient relaxes which will also allow wind
speeds to drop.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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