Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. No
impacts are expected at the terminals. Light winds and clear
skies are expected. There might be occassional high clouds around
but mostly clear skies will dominate. Wind speeds will be light
and variable throughout this period as well. However, wind speeds
could be closer at 7 to 10 knots...but again overall light winds
are expected.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

Southwest winds will gradually turn more to the northwest and then
northeast, especially at DHT and GUY, through this forecast.
Speeds should be around 10 knots or less. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
throughout the afternoon into early evening hours. Further
analysis of the fire weather conditions will be explained in the
fire weather section below. Temperatures have rebounded nicely
this afternoon as RH values dropped and southwesterly wind has
caused some downsloping flow to allow temperatures to rise into
the upper 80s and lower to perhaps a few mid 90s for high
temperatures today.

As we go through from Monday through Wednesday, tranquil weather
conditions will continue. A upper level ridge of high pressure
across southern Texas will keep zonal flow across the Panhandles.
Going into the day on Tuesday, latest 19/12Z model and
probabilistic data shows a cold front moving through the
Panhandles from NE to SW. Light and variable winds out ahead of
the front will then shift to northeasterly flow that will continue
through Wednesday with high temperatures below average by

Our next chance of precipitation will return to the region during
the afternoon on Thursday. Still being several days out, the
potential is there for showers and thunderstorms across the
Panhandles. Latest 12Z global data have begin to show a dryline
setup across the TX/NM border along with a good southerly flow out
ahead with a hint of a veering vertical profile. In-conjunction
with the winds, mid level moisture transport into the region does
look favorable ahead of the upper level low near the Four Corners
region, especially in the eastern Panhandles by Thursday
afternoon. We will continue to monitor and update accordingly as
we get closer to Thursday. Wrap around moisture from the departing
upper level low will bring additional chances of precipitation to
northern areas we go into the day on Friday. Temperatures will
rebound to above average by the end of the week.


Elevated to borderline critical fire weather conditions will
continue into the early evening hours. Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for the southwestern and southern TX Panhandle through 7
PM. Current RH values across the region range between 8-15% as
mid level dry air and downslope southwesterly winds are being
established across the region. With the exception of the far
western TX Panhandle where winds have gusted around 25 kts out of
the SW, winds for the most part to day have sustained between
5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts across the Panhandles today.
Winds will diminish under 10 kts as we go towards midnight and
then light and variable early Monday morning with RH values
rising to 35-45% by Monday morning.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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