Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 061753 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1153 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Gusty northerly winds will decrease toward sunset and should be
around 10 knots or less for much of the night. Northwest to north
winds will pick up again Thursday morning into the 10 to 15 knot
range. Skies are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/

For the 12Z TAFs, a reinforcing cold front will move southward
across the terminal sites this morning with gusty north winds in
its wake. These winds will then diminish from north to south late
this afternoon. An increase in mid and high level clouds are also
expected. No precipitation is anticipated through 12Z Thursday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/

Split flow aloft is still evident on latest water vapor imagery
with broad trough becoming well established over eastern CONUS,
high amplitude ridge over west coast, and weak pos tilt trough
over southern AZ. Zonal flow will be maintained for for about one
more day over the Panhandles before meridional flow takes over
tomorrow. Temperatures this morning are quite chilly with low 20s
and a few teens under mostly clear skies. Cloud cover along with a
few showers and flurries can be expected south of the Panhandles
where jet dynamics are more favorable through the morning hours.
Light southwesterly winds will become north-northeasterly at 10 to
20 knots later this morning as a relatively weak frontal boundary
moves through the area. This will keep high temperatures around 5
degrees below normal with low to mid 40s for most locations.

Deterministic model guidance indicate a 500mb shortwave moving
south along the backside of the cyclonic flow over the eastern
CONUS late Wed into Thursday. This feature eventually helps phase
the southern pos tilt trough and the eastern broad trough on
Thursday. This eliminates split flow and produces pos tilt trough
axis stretching from Great Lakes down into the Four Corners region
as high amplitude ridge is maintained over west coast. The main
effect this will have on the Panhandles is to increase CAA Wed
night through Thursday afternoon, as some of the colder Canadian
air is able to shift further southwest behind a relatively strong
cold front. 850mb temps will decrease to -5 to -9 degrees C
Wednesday night into Thursday morning on north-northeast winds.
This will lead to a very chilly Thursday morning with teens and
20s, and probably the coldest high temperatures of the season
Thursday afternoon with highs only in the high 30s and low 40s.
Winds especially Thursday afternoon will be quite breezy at 15-25
knots, so basically Thursday will not be the most pleasant day.
Dry conditions are expected to continue given very dry near
surface conditions. Mid level clouds are possible and may limit
Thursday morning lows some.

While the overall pattern doesn`t change much Friday into the
weekend, the trough axis will shift further east allowing a
warming trend. A decent pressure gradient will set up over the
area Friday along with fairly strong 700mb northerly jet leading
to near windy category conditions as northwest winds start
drawing in the warmer pacific air to our west. Meridional flow
aloft becomes more northwest flow into the weekend with
temperatures around or slightly above average expected. The
eastern Conus trough tries to nudge west again early next week
leading to another cold front Monday into Tuesday, dropping
temperatures back around average. Dry conditions are expected to
persist through the extended.


Elevated fire weather is looking more likely on Friday afternoon,
especially for western zones as temperatures increase enough to
result in min RH values around 17-20 percent. Winds will also be
at or above elevated criteria as twenty foot northwest winds
increase to 15-20 mph with higher gusts Friday afternoon.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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