Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Immediate short term concern is wind. Garden City gusted to 70 mph
earlier and Dodge City gusted to 65 mph. The Arctic front is still
traversing across the forecast district and has not made it to the
eastern counties. As a result of the high winds, did issue a high wind
warning earlier. This goes out until noon, which includes a few hours
of buffer at the end of the warning as the HRRR shows steady strong
winds continuing through mid morning. The other concern for today is
snow potential. Don`t have high confidence in amounts, although a good
1-2" is still possible for much of the forecast area, except for far
southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma border. Amounts should be lesser
in this area. Radar early this morning is already showing a snow band
that is developing west of Dodge City. The main impact from this whole
event will be the damaging wind gusts and areas of blowing snow and
even dust, reducing visibilities. Highs today will continue to fall
as the cold air invades southwest Kansas. For tonight, a cold night
is expected with many locations bottoming out in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

After a cold start Friday, the warmest readings for highs are expected
near the Colorado border, where WAA will be present. It will be much
colder across the eastern counties, under the cold high pressure center
and associated negative 850-hPa temperatures. Have a large gradient
of 50s west to 20s east.

For the Weekend, Saturday looks chilly as another surge of cold air
coming in from the northwest is forecast. Mainly 20s and 30s for highs
with cold mornings in the teens. Temperature will moderate slightly
Sunday, with weak downslope flow. Another cold surge/front is expected
Monday. There could be some light snowfall with this front, however,
moisture doesn`t look that great on the EC. Will continue with the
fb pop grids for now. Beyond that, temperatures will moderate but the
overall forecast looks to be dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Poor flight conditions this morning. A snowband will continue to move
east through the next several hours. Locally reduced IFR flight conditions
with SN/BLSN is expected with the band. Winds will continue to be very
strong (N 30-40 kt). These winds will gradually weaken through the
day and will be light by this evening. VFR cigs are also expected later
in the TAF pd as the weather disturbance moves away from the terminals.


DDC  34  10  35  11 /  40   0   0   0
GCK  36  11  41  12 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  41  18  54  17 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  39  13  47  13 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  27   7  26   6 /  60   0  10   0
P28  31  10  32  13 /  60   0   0   0


High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030-

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ066-



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.