Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212351
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

A few thunderstorms will be possible across far western Kansas
this evening shifting eastward into north central Kansas by
midnight. Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness through the
evening. This is due to a weak shortwave moving over northern
Kansas. Dry conditions are anticipated tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness. A trough of low pressure at the surface will be
located along the KS/CO border leading to continued southerly
winds through tomorrow. Breezy conditions is likely again late
tomorrow morning into the late afternoon with gusts over 30 mph at
times. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the
lower 60s along the KS/CO border to around 70 across central and
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Dry conditions continue tomorrow night into Friday afternoon with
mostly clear skies and breezy southerly winds in the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are then possible across far western
Kansas Friday evening spreading eastward through Friday night.
This is due to an upper level low and trough moving into the
Rockies. This feature will also push a cold front through the area
Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms continue Saturday into
Saturday night with the best chance across central and south
central Kansas. Winds will shift to more of a northerly direction
behind this front with much cooler temperatures. A few lingering
showers are possible Sunday, otherwise expect decreasing
cloudiness. Drier conditions are expected for the beginning of
next week as an upper level ridge builds into the western United
States with high pressure building across the Central Plains.
However, this could change with future model runs due to a large
upper level low spinning above the Northern Plains. There could be
a few weak disturbances swinging around this feature creating an
increase in cloudiness and a chance of precipitation. As for
temperatures, highs Friday are progged to reach into the 90s then
into the 80s on Saturday. Much cooler temperatures are expected
Sunday into the beginning of next week with highs in the 70s. Low
temperatures will start out in the mid 60s Thursday and Friday
night decreasing into the 50s Saturday night. Lows Sunday night
through the beginning of next week are then forecasted to range
from the lower 40s across eastern Colorado to lower 50s across
central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Mainly a VFR category forecast, as large dew point depreessions
and relatively gusty/mixing near surface layer winds persist
Through the overnight. That said, there is a narrow
instability/convergence axis where a few isolated short lived
surface based storms have developed from near Scott City south to
west of GCK. This activity should remain basically isolated in the
very short term, and end quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  93  66  91 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  66  93  66  91 /  20  10   0  20
EHA  62  93  63  89 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  65  95  64  91 /  10  10   0  20
HYS  70  90  67  91 /  20  10  10  20
P28  70  93  67  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell


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