Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202032
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS
THE EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BREAKS THROUGH THE SHARP RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST FINALLY LIFTS
OUT INTO EASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, AND A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
NEAR 130W WILL DIG INTO THE THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND WILL APPROACH WESTERN TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE EAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TODAY, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
WARM FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF PRATT, BARBER AND STAFFORD COUNTIES, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE MOIST LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A DEPTH OF A
KILOMETER EVEN IN BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES. AS SUCH, ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND LIKELY WILL
NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCRETION IS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MERIT ISSUANCE OF ANY  HEADLINES.

THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING, AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE
FOG LIKELY WILL MIX OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLES THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RECIRCULATE COOL
AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DEVELOP MORE OF AN EAST COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS PRESSURES FALL IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOW 30S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY:

A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASED HIGHS TO
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMUMS WILL BE 30S WEST TO 40S EAST.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. WINDS COULD BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S FOR MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING RESUMES BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR TURKEY DAY. IF
THIS VERIFIES, THAN THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS
TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE ONSET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DEEPER LIFT
FOR PRECIPITATION PROCESSES SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS, HOWEVER LIGHT FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER ABOUT 8Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  45  32  60 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  27  46  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  29  52  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  62 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  24  43  30  58 /  10  10   0  10
P28  31  46  36  60 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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