Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 130600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Stratus will be reestablishing over SW KS through sunrise.
Temperatures have fallen into the 30s where the stratus has yet to
materialize; as the stratus expands in coverage temperatures will
recover into the lower 40s near sunrise. Areas of fog are evident
as of midnight across the northern zones, from Hays to Scott City.
Again, fog is expected to be rather limited, but mentioned patchy
fog in the grids for all zones through 6 am. Freezing fog observed
at Scott City and Hays as of midnight, with temperatures well
below freezing. These conditions are expected to be fleeting, but
if they hold on for another hour or two an advisory may be
required. Fog is expected to lift and visibilities improve, once
stratus develops overnight.

Monday...Once again, stratus clouds will erode from west to east.
With improved mixing (stronger south winds) and a warmer boundary
layer, confident the clearing line will advance at least to the
US 283 by afternoon. Indications are the stratus may never erode
today across our eastern zones, including St. John, Pratt and
Medicine Lodge. Obviously, a large temperature gradient will
result by afternoon, with max temperatures stuck in the lower 50s
in the eastern zones, to near 70 along the Colorado border. Along
with neighboring offices, mentioned drizzle across and near Barber
county through this afternoon, as returning moisture advection
will be strongest in the far SE zones. South winds will pick up
substantially today, averaging 15-25 mph with gusts in the 30-35
mph range during the early afternoon.

Tonight...Guess what? More stratus. Moisture advection will
redirect stratus back westward after sunset, with low clouds
and/or fog expected back in the Dodge City vicinity by 9 pm.
Models are more excited about fog production tonight, which makes
sense with the moist 40s dewpoints in the boundary layer. Included
areas of fog in the grids after midnight, and a dense fog advisory
may be required. Temperatures will hold in the 40s in the stratus
and fog through Tuesday morning, but fall into the 30s across the
NW zones.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Looks like more of the same for the extended period as a zonal
progressive flow pattern is forecast to persist through the next
seven days. At the beginning of the period, low level moisture
will continue to spread north into central and portions of western
Kansas Monday night and Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough
approaches the northern Plains. Some short term model solutions
show widespread dense fog developing across a good part of the
forecast area Monday night. SREF probabilities for <1 mi visibility
are not all that high, generally less than 40 percent, so am not
getting too excited about that just yet. Low level warm advection
on Tuesday should yield some of the warmest temperatures this
week with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The weak shortwave
moves across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday
night. This will push a cold front through western and central
Kansas Tuesday evening. The medium range models continue to keep
any precipitation with this front to the north and east of the
forecast area.

A stronger shortwave trough is progged by the models to blast east
across the central Plains around Friday or Friday night. The GFS
continues to be about 12 hours faster with the passage of this
system over western Kansas. The models continue to keep any
precipitation with this system out of the forecast area but think
that areas along the I-70 corridor could see at least a small
chance given the farther south track of this wave. Friday could be
a lot windier and cooler than the latest forecast indicates if the
GFS turns out to be right. Given the uncertainty, did not want to
stray from FB guidance too much. Quieter weather and more seasonal
temperatures are expected for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Once again, IFR/MVFR stratus will overspread SW KS overnight into
Monday morning. Radiational freezing fog at HYS as of 05z is
expected to be replaced by this stratus over the next few hours.
Otherwise, visibility restrictions in BR/patchy FG should hold
near 3 miles or higher. Around 18z Monday, stratus will erode
again from west to east, with several hours of VFR expected Monday
afternoon. Stratus should clear the four TAF sites to the east,
but consensus of short term models agrees moisture advection will
push stratus back westward (into at least DDC) by 03z Tuesday. As
the stratus erodes, south winds will be stronger after 18z,
averaging 17-27 kts.


DDC  35  59  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  65  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  42  68  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  39  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  56  42  63 /   0   0   0  10
P28  40  52  49  66 /   0  10  10  10




LONG TERM...Gerard
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