Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

As a weak upper level ridge pushes further east into the Western
High Plains tonight, the NAM/GFS indicate an upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Rockies off the ridge axis into the high
plains of eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas bringing
precip chances to the region. Although the flow aloft will remain
fairly weak, enough low/mid level moisture present combined with
increased instability, may be enough to support isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into this evening
across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the vicinity of
more ideal surface forcing. CAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500
J/KG and more favorable vertical shear profiles may be enough to
support stronger storms briefly through late this evening.
Widespread severe is unlikely. Precip chances will then dwindle
overnight with drier conditions likely once again during much of
the day Monday.

Low temperatures will fall back into the mid to upper 60s(F) across
west central Kansas tonight with the lower to mid 70s(F) possible
in south central Kansas as a southerly flow near the surface
reinforces the warmer air mass across the region. Look for highs
well up into the 90s(F) Monday afternoon with a few locations
possibly reaching 100F as warm air advection continues.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday as an upper level trough
progresses southeastward into the upper Midwest, with an associated
surface front situated across southwest Kansas. High temperatures
will be between 98 and 101F. Upper level troughing will gradually
build across the northwestern United States trough Friday August
22nd, with upper level ridging across the southern Plains. This will
lead to weak lee troughing over the high plains and mainly hot and
dry weather across southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will
generally be between 96 and 102F each day, with lows from the
upper 60s in far western Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There
are very small chances for thunderstorms somewhere across western
Kansas just about every day ahead of the lee trough; but it is
very difficult to pinpoint the timing and coverage of any
convective events. When the upper level trough over the
northwestern United States finally progresses eastward across the
northern plains, a cold frontal passage will lead to cooler
temperatures, possibly by Saturday August 23rd. Thunderstorms may
accompany the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist through
early Monday morning as a surface trough remains anchored near and
along the Colorado border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  68  98  66  98 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  67  99  67  98 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  67 100  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  68  98  68  97 /  20  20  20  10
P28  70 100  71  99 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson






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