Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

An upper level trough was passing across western Kansas
this afternoon. Widespread rain was occurring on the
cool side of the front and this was keeping temperatures
from rising out of the 40s to lower 50s. This system will
pass off to the east tonight, with surface high pressure
building into western Kansas through Saturday. Temperatures
tonight should fall into the mid to upper 30s in far western
Kansas where skies may partially clear toward morning, with lower
40s in south central Kansas. Saturday will be partly to mostly
sunny and warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Near freezing temperatures are possible Sunday morning with
clear skies and light winds. A frost advisory will likely be
needed for Dodge City westward to the Colorado line. Several
upper level disturbances will pass across the central plains
next week but low level moisture will be limited this far
west. There are small chances for showers and thunderstorms
with each system. Severe storm chances look rather limited
although it cant be ruled out, especially over south central
Kansas. Highs will warm to near 70 degrees Sunday and then
into the lower 80s by Monday before gradually falling into the
high 60s by Thursday. The best chance of rain is Wednesday
night as a stronger system passes. However, with all the day to
day changes in the various model solutions, confidence is very
low in a widespread precipitation event.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Two upper level waves will rotate around an upper low as it moves
east across the central plains overnight and Saturday. One of
these upper waves this evening will move into central Kansas after
sunset, and as it does the ongoing precipitation at 00z Saturday
across western Kansas will taper off from west to east. Model
soundings differing on how quickly ceilings will improve overnight
once this first upper wave passes but based on the past few
observations trends across western Kansas will favor the more
progressive RAP on improving ceilings and trend towards VFR
ceilings At HYS at the start of the 00z Tafs cycle. Ceilings at
GCK and DDC should have low VFR ceilings developing between 03z
and 09z Saturday. Gusty northerly winds early this evening will
fall back to around 10 knots by 06z Saturday and then continue
through Saturday afternoon as a surface high builds into western
Kansas. Wind direction along with stronger winds forecast in the
boundary layer does not favor dense fog development overnight but
given the recent rains and light winds tonight can not rule out
some patchy fog will be possible.


DDC  38  58  34  69 /  50  10   0   0
GCK  36  58  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  36  57  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  58  33  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  39  59  36  70 /  90   0   0   0
P28  41  59  37  69 /  70  10   0   0




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