Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1121 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Strong NW winds across SW KS this afternoon, with frequent gusts
in the 35-40 mph range. Peak gust observed at Garden City so far
has been 44 mph. With full sun and excellent mixing, strong gusts
will continue through about 4 pm, followed by rapid weakening
through sunset. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will
continue through sunset with the gusty winds and continued dry
advection. Any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged this

Tonight...Clear. Winds back to light west/SW overnight at less
than 10 mph. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 20s
from Syracuse to Garden City to the upper 30s in eastern Barber
county. A downslope wind component expected overnight will keep
overnight temperatures again several degrees above late February

Tuesday...Sunny, very warm and spring-like, again. Kept sky grids
at zero, with no clouds expected. Weak lee troughing east of the
Rockies will promote a gentle SWly downslope breeze of 10-20 mph.
Much less wind than observed Monday, and atmosphere warms strongly
again with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +14C east to +20C
west. Forecasted highs several degrees above the MOS guidance,
with mid to upper 70s for all zones (25-30 degrees above normal).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Dry weather will persist across SW KS through this entire long
term forecast, interrupted by a brief opportunity for rain and/or
snow across the northern zones Thursday night.

Wednesday...Another unseasonably warm day, ahead of lee side
cyclone in SE Colorado. Spring in February again, with 70s for all
locations and light winds. Lower 80s for the warmest locales south
of Dodge City along the KS/OK border.

Thursday...Strong shortwave trough approaches from the Rockies,
resulting in strong leeside cyclogenesis, with all models
depicting a 990 mb surface low near Ashland by 6 pm. As such, the
strongest SW winds and hottest downslope are expected to be
focused south of SW KS. Still, unseasonably mild temperatures will
continue, with highs ranging from near 60 north to the 70s along
the Oklahoma border. Some light rain showers or virga across the
NW zones by late afternoon, as dynamic lift increases on what
moisture is available.

Thursday night...Strong cold front, with strong N/NW winds. Model
consensus is growing that deformation zone rain/snow and
wraparound moisture will affect the northern zones during this
time frame. Blended pops fields yield chance pops roughly north of
U.S. Highway 50, and these were maintained. Expecting the southern
zones to remain dry. Any rain across the northern zones will
change to a windblown wet snow Thursday night, with 12z ECMWF
suggesting a few inches may accumulate along the I-70 corridor.
There may be some snow impacts to the Friday morning commute from
Wakeeney to Hays, and this will be watched closely.

Friday...Windy and sharply colder, with NW winds gusting 30-40 mph
and temperatures struggling into the lower 40s. It is still
February, and it will feel like it on Friday.

Saturday morning will be quite cold, as 12z ECMWF places a 1030 mb
Canadian surface high over Dodge City at sunrise. A hard freeze
for all zones, with mid teens across the NW CWA. Temperatures
slowly moderate next weekend behind the departing high, with
continued dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Westerly winds at 10 knots or less overnight will become southwest
at around 10 knots during the day on Tuesday as a surface trough
of low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado. RAP, NAM and GFS
Model soundings indicated what moisture that does cross western
Kansas today will be at or above 12000ft AGL.


Issued at 1252 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Red flag criteria has been observed over much of the red flag
warning area already today, as relative humidity falls into the
10-15% range, and NW winds have gusted near 40 mph. Mild
temperatures, dry air advection, and strong NW winds will continue
to produce an elevated to critical risk of wildfire spread
through sunset. The red flag warning for the western counties
continues through 7 pm CST. All outdoor burning is discouraged.


DDC  33  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  28  77  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  79  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  29  77  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  34  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  76  43  79 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
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