Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240956
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES OVER THE HEAVIER SNOWPACK
OF FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAVE FALLEN DOWN TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS PLATEAUED AS A
LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT WIND SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FURTHER FREEFALL IN TEMPS.

FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE REALLY TRICKY WITH SNOWPACK
AND MELT-OFF CERTAINLY AFFECTING TEMPERATURES. AT THE SAME TIME,
THOUGH, WE WILL BE SEEING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARMING THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WYOMING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION. IF THE HIGH PLAINS WERE SNOW-FREE, THIS
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. AS IT IS,
THOUGH, WE DO HAVE SNOWPACK ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS, SO OBVIOUSLY THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE REALIZED. WE WILL, HOWEVER, STILL WARM UP FAIRLY
NICELY AND GIVEN THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN, MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT OFF TODAY. SOMETHING BETWEEN THE VERY WARM WRF-ARW AND
THE MUCH COOLER NAM/WRF-NMMB IS PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST OVER
THE DEEPER SNOW PACK (WHERE 4+ INCHES FELL WITH OUR LAST STORM),
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARMEST ARW CORE
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED...WHICH SHOW 21Z TEMPERATURES IN THE
49-52F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 50 AT HAYS IN THE ABSENCE
OF SNOW COVER, WITH UPPER 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM CANADA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT(S) FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATED, WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING
WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOME MORE MOIST.
GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SINCE IT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT BEFORE
REACHING WESTERN KANSAS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM, BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO THAT
THE DETAILS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY STAY IN THE 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
STATE OF CHANGE IN WEATHER BEING A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN
TO AT OR BELOW 8 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  16  42  16 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  40  15  37  15 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  36  18  41  17 /   0   0  30  30
LBL  37  16  42  18 /   0   0  20  30
HYS  51  19  51  14 /   0   0  20  20
P28  47  20  48  18 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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