Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
137
FXUS63 KDDC 170853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S(F) TO THE LOWER
80S(F). LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW
MID TO UPPER 40S(F) POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE, AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY 50S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND LOWER 60S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OFF TO
THE EAST AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF
THE STORMS SATURDAY MAY BE SEVERE AS WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BUT IT`S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
WILL GET TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN, WITH MAINLY
JUST ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FAIR WEATHER IS
PROBABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO
THE EAST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  50  71  49 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  80  48  68  48 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  80  48  69  50 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  80  51  72  51 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  80  49  68  46 /   0   0   0  10
P28  83  55  75  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.