Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192304
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Water vapor loop midday showed a rather formidable disturbance in
the polar jet stream moving out of Montana into the Dakotas.
Meanwhile, a subtropical wave moved out of Colorado and into far
western Kansas this morning. This promoted the development of
showers and thunderstorms through the morning hours, particularly
across northwest Kansas. An axis of mid level moisture extended down
into southwest Kansas, however isolated to scattered showers that
were tied to this axis of moisture dissipated by midday. We were
tracking a fine line on DDC 88D between Garden City and Dodge City,
which is the first front. There was a second, stronger front farther
north, moving into southeastern Wyoming.

This initial front will have all the low level moisture to work
with, and by mid afternoon convection should erupt along it from
north central KS to the Arkansas River. This is the corridor where
the most concentrated thunderstorm activity will be from mid
afternoon through early evening. Later on, additional storms will
likely develop from the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma border. POPs
will be highest (80 percent) from Stafford to Barber County, and
will begin a decreasing trend after 03Z as one or two MCSs shift on
to the east. The second front will be pushing into west central and
southwest KS in the 06-12Z time frame, but moisture will be rather
depleted to support organized convection. As far as severe weather
threats are concerned, there is still a Slight Risk from SPC, which
still looks pretty good as SBCAPE reaches the 2000-3000 J/Kg range
along with deep layer shear enough to support organized multicell
clusters, and perhaps briefly a supercell structure or two at the
onset of convection. It would be this early phase that large hail
would be the greatest threat (perhaps up to golf ball size) with the
threat evolving more toward damaging straight line winds, especially
as storms move deeper into central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

A gradual warm up back to the mid-upper 80s can be expected late
weekend into early next week, with some 90s creeping back in by
Tuesday, especially out west. Several subtropical disturbances will
move into the Desert Southwest region and into the Southern/Central
Rockies early next week, which will help improve the lower-mid
tropospheric moisture flux into southwest Kansas. As this is
happening, another polar jet trough will move across the Canada-
Montana border area, promoting enhanced lee trough from eastern
Colorado into the Northern High Plains. The moisture flux and
increased convergence in the low levels will eventually manifest
into better precipitation chances come late Tuesday. This will
likely be a setup not too dissimilar to what we are seeing today
with a polar front interaction with subtropical perturbations coming
across the Central Plains. Another decent cold front will push
through mid-week, bringing afternoon temperatures back down into the
70s/lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

As a cold front crosses Oklahoma overnight the north to northwest
winds across western Kansas will continue at 10 to 15 knots. The
northerly winds will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range towards
daybreak as a reinforcement of cooler air crosses western Kansas.
Convection this evening will stay south and east of all three taf
sites and VFR conditions early tonight may give way to some
increasing low VFR or even a few brief periods of isolated MVFR
ceilings after 09z Saturday as moisture begins to increase in the
900mb to 850mb levels as the reinforcement of cooler air crosses
western Kansas. VFR conditions will return by 15z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  77  55  85 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  56  77  55  85 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  55  78  57  84 /  40  20  10  10
LBL  58  78  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  56  77  53  84 /  10  10  10   0
P28  63  78  56  85 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert



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