Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 042345
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
545 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Quiet weather through Monday, and actually quite pleasant for
early December standards. Sky is clear as of noon, and will remain
that way through Monday morning. SW winds will remain elevated
overnight through sunrise Monday, as low level jet increases
SWly 850 mb winds to near 40 kts. Gusts at the surface near
20 mph will prevail tonight, despite nocturnal decoupling. With
the mixed boundary layer, temperatures tonight will be held well
above early December normals, in the upper 20s and lower 30s
(normal at Dodge City is 23).

Monday...Mild and dry. SW winds will pick up abruptly after
sunrise, as the LLJ dissipates and mixes down. Temperatures will
be allowed to warm quickly late morning into the early afternoon,
given full sunshine, downslope winds, and prefrontal warming
effects. Nudged up expected high temperatures a few degrees, to
the mid 50s to near 60, with 60 most likely from Elkhart to
Hugoton to Liberal. SW winds will relax during the afternoon hours
as the pressure gradient relaxes, and the first strong cold front
approaches from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Arctic cold will visit SW Kansas Tuesday Night through Thursday
Night...

Initial cold front will race through SW KS Monday night, with
strong gusty north winds, gusting over 30 mph. Cold air advection
will not be overly strong yet, so lows Tuesday morning will still
be near normal in the lower 20s.

Tuesday...Much colder, but still dry through 6 pm. Weak high
pressure over the eastern zones at midday will move NE through the
afternoon, allowing surface winds to gain an upslope/easterly
component. Increasing clouds by evening. Highs in the 30s.

Shortwave over Nevada at 6 pm Tuesday will race eastward, near
Grand Junction, Colorado at 6 am Wednesday, and near Wichita
6 pm Wednesday. This track is still too progressive to allow any
meaningful moisture to arrive from the Gulf of Mexico. However,
dynamic lift ahead of the associated jet will be strong, and
yield a broad swath of light to moderate snow across Kansas.
Front left exit region of jet streak will force snow to break
out first near Denver Tuesday evening, expand into western/NW
Kansas Wednesday morning, with the heaviest snow expected to
impact central/NE Kansas Wednesday afternoon/evening. Snow will be
most widespread across SW Kansas Wednesday morning (6 am-noon) and
this is where likely pop grids from the model blends continue to
look appropriate. Models are showing consistency with a storm
track that would place the heaviest snowfall roughly along the
I-70 corridor, and coordinated with WFO Goodland in this regard.
Have placed 3-5 inches across our northern zones for this storm
system (Scott, Lane, Trego, Ellis, Ness). Snow amounts will taper
off quickly with southern extent, with 1-2 inches along the
Garden City/Dodge City corridor, and an inch or less south of US
Highway 50. Have high confidence of the general trend of the
heavier snow amounts favoring the northern counties at this time.
That said, a southerly shift in the shortwave`s track by 100 miles
would increase snow amounts across SW Kansas accordingly. No sign
of this southerly track correction yet, and with such fast
movement it seems unlikely. Something we will watch model trends
for. Too early for headlines, but given this will be a dry fluffy
snow, prone to blowing and drifting, winter advisories of some
flavor are likely along the I-70 corridor Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Pressure gradient will be quite strong Wednesday, with
>10 mb of gradient between Scott City and Kiowa. North winds will
gust easily 30-40 mph. Coordinated with all surrounding offices to
increase winds well above the Forecast Builder underestimates.
This increased the coverage of blowing snow in the grids and
zones, which will be an impact for the Wednesday morning commute.
Will need to assess the impact from reduced visibility in blowing
snow as the event draws nearer.

The primary impact this week, more so than any snow or blowing
snow, will be arctic cold Wednesday and Thursday. The source
region for this incoming airmass is Alaska, and feel models are
struggling to grasp how cold this air will be. The cold will be
magnified by any snowcover across western Kansas as well. Undercut
the blended high temperatures by a few degrees, but noticed the
12z MEX/CONSMOS are even colder than the going forecast. The
bottom line: we will spend all of Wednesday around 15-25 degrees,
with wind chill factors near zero at times.

GFS places a huge sprawling 1051 mb arctic surface high in Alberta
Thursday morning, with a strong extension of it branching
southward east of the Rockies into Kansas. With higher pressure to
the NW, NW breezes will stay up overnight and Thursday morning
which should prevent the coldest guidance (MEX) from being
reached. Regardless, air temperatures in the single digits are
expected, and with the NW breeze, wind chill indices of -5 to -10
are in the grids for Thursday morning`s commute.

Thursday...Dry and cold. It now appears strong cold high pressure
ridging will hold firm across Nebraska/Kansas through the daylight
hours Thursday. Even will full sunshine, this will prevent any
warmup. With such a cold start, and continued NW winds and cold
advection, kept Thursday`s afternoon temps in the lower to mid
20s.

More single digits are expected Friday morning. The core of the
arctic airmass finally moves east quickly on Friday, allowing
temperatures to moderate nicely Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Wind sheer will be an
issue overnight as a low level jet comes through Southwest Kansas
tonight starting roughly about 6Z. The jet should mix down by
roughly 15Z. Southwest winds will pick up shortly thereafter.
A cold front comes through late afternoon Monday, where winds
will shift from the northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  55  23  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  29  59  23  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  61  22  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  59  22  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  30  53  24  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  57  29  41 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Reynolds



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