Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221153
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD
OF A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS TODAY, ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUD CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME MID TO HIGH 30S IN
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE SOME PLACES RECEIVED AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW. IT`S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS SNOW MAY MELT BY AFTERNOON SO
THAT EVEN LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELKHART REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40F. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF ARCTIC AIR, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SEASONAL, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 18-23F RANGE. LOWS WILL BE
COLDER OVER ANY ISOLATED AREAS THAT MANAGE TO KEEP SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE RIDGE.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
WARM UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THESE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERNS
COULD CAN RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
GUIDANCE VALUES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 70S AGAIN.

WHILE MODEL FORECAST DETAILS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THEN, THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND
MIDWEEK APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT SHOULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AROUND MIDWEEK AND BRING SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  20  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  17  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  13  44  25 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  39  15  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  42  23  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  42  24  50  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD



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