Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Weak upper low spinning near the Arizona/New Mexico border at
midday. Primary task for the short term forecast was to reduce the
precipitation expectations from this system for SW KS. Still
expect clouds to thicken and lower through tonight, in response to
increasing moisture and isentropic lift. Areas of drizzle or light
rain showers primarily south of Dodge City after midnight, with
stratus returning through Thursday morning. Vast majority of lift
and moisture from this system will pass south of SW KS on
Thursday, and all model guidance continues to trend drier. Reduced
inherited pop/QPF grids considerably, and this may still be too
wet. ECMWF places the weak 569 dm 500 mb low SE of Dodge City
Thursday afternoon, so kept chance pops relegated to the SE zones
east of this feature, and resticted the mention of isolated
thunder to those zones as well. 12z NAM forecasts CAPE of only
500 J/kg near Medicine Lodge Thursday evening, as such severe
convection is not expected. Not as cold tonight as last night,
courtesy of increasing clouds and moisture, with lows in the 40s.
With less rainfall now expected Thursday, increased high
temperatures 1-2 degrees, to the mid and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

On Thursday the chance for showers will increase across all of
western Kansas as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and
moves out into the West Central High Plains. The better moisture
and lift ahead of this wave currently appears to be focus across
all of western Kansas early in the day and then shifts east into
central Kansas Thursday night. Will therefore stay close to the
previous forecast in increasing the chance for showers early in
the day and then taper this precipitation off from west to east
late Thursday night. Marginal instability still supports keeping
isolated thunderstorms going. Severe weather on Thursday is not
anticipated.

An upper level ridge axis then begin to build into western Kansas
on Friday. Models indicating the potential for some afternoon
convection based on weak forcing, moisture in the 850mb to 700mb
level and late day instability. The down side to late day
convection is the warming 700mb temperatures so kept small chances
going for areas east of Dodge City while lowered the chances
further west.

A warming trend can be expected through the weekend as 850mb
temperatures warm and a trough of low pressure deepens across
eastern Colorado. In addition to the warmer temperatures there
will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day from Saturday
through Monday. A developing trough/dry line in eastern Colorado
will be the main focus for late day storms on Saturday. On Sunday
this dry line is forecast to be located near the Colorado border
as a negatively tilted trough moves out of the Rockies and into
the central Plains. The potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms exists both days over the weekend period but the
better chance for severe thunderstorms across western Kansas
currently appears to be late Sunday. This dry line will move east
into central Kansas on Monday where another chance for severe
thunderstorms will occur late Monday. Temperatures are expected to
warm from the 70s on Friday into the mid 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Cloud coverage will increase and cigs will gradually lower through
this evening, as a weak storm system along the AZ/NM border at
midday, approaches SW KS. Consensus of short term models suggests
VFR cigs will hold through 06z Thu, with MVFR/IFR stratus
returning in moistening SE surface flow through 12z Thu. Models
are split between solid IFR category cigs versus higher MVFR, so
tried to split the difference in the 18z TAFs. Vast majority of
rainfall from this system will remain well south of SW KS, and
only included VCSH at GCK/DDC for the 12-18z Thu period. Light SE
winds will prevail through this TAF forecast cycle.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  46  65  49 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  64  46  65  50 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  46  67  49 /  10  30  30  30
LBL  64  46  68  50 /  10  30  40  30
HYS  65  45  66  49 /   0  10  20  20
P28  66  49  65  50 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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