Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180603 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Moist upslope SE winds across all of SW KS as of midnight, with
dewpoints well into the 50s. Convective anvil debris dissipating.
Last few images of satellite imagery shows stratus blossoming
nicely, beginning just east of Dodge City. Stratus will continue
to expand north and west to some extent through sunrise, but am
uncertain how far it will get. Model guidance is not helping much
with little agreement. Included low clouds and areas of fog across
the eastern 1/2 of the CWA through early Tuesday morning.

Any stratus will burn off rapidly by mid morning Tuesday, with
sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected. Afternoon highs
ranging from the upper 70s far east (last to see the stratus burn
off) to the mid 80s across the SW zones. Increasing south winds
this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts, in response
to lee troughing deepening in eastern Colorado. Moisture advection
will maintain dewpoints in the 50s this afternoon, with 00z NAM
forecasting CAPE near 1000 J/kg and lifted index near -4C. Despite
the instability, a lack of forcing will keep all zones dry through
tonight. Expecting at most some cumulus clouds this afternoon.

Tonight...windy and mild. A strong low level jet is progged to
develop across SW KS immediately after dark, with 850 mb winds
near 55 kts. South winds will remain strong and gusty all night,
averaging 20-30 mph. This mixing will keep temperatures warm
through Wednesday morning, with many locations only falling to
near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

In the long term, the main point of emphasis will be on the fairly
impressive storm system arriving at the end of the week. Before
then, however, there will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorm
development across western portions of central KS... mainly south
and east of roughly a La Crosse to Bucklin to Ashland line. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front timing late in the day
Wednesday, and given time uncertainties, we expanded the 20 percent
POP line northwest a bit, which matches closer the western edge of
the 5 percent probabilistic contour from SPC Day 3 Convective
Outlook for Wed. SuperBlend POP and QPF still look pretty good for
the Friday event, as all the global models are in pretty good
agreement placing western Kansas in the good 850-700mb frontogenetic
zone north of the surface front. This should be a cold rain event,
with an isolated thunderstorm here and there (mainly across south
central KS). Temperatures will struggle to reach even the mid 50s
for most locations, and perhaps staying in the upper 40s all day in
far west central KS. Severe weather threats look very low for our
part of the world, with that risk being confined to southern
Oklahoma and North Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low confidence in the evolution of stratus tonight into Tuesday
morning. Outside of convective anvil debris, sky is generally
clear as of midnight. Last few images of satellite imagery do show
stratus beginning to redevelop just east of DDC, which is
reasonable given continued moist upslope flow. Stratus now
developing at DDC as of this writing. Forecasted MVFR cigs in
stratus at DDC/HYS through sunrise Tuesday, but kept out of the
GCK/LBL TAFs. A period of IFR cigs is most likely at DDC. Any
stratus will burn off quickly after 15z Tue. South winds will
increase some Tuesday afternoon, averaging 15-25 kts, in response
to lee troughing east of the Rockies. After 00z Wed, S/SE winds
will remain strong and gusty as a strong low level jet develops
over SW KS. With SWly 850 mb winds near 55 kts, low level wind
shear is included in all TAFs starting around 03z Wed.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  82  60  86 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  54  83  57  85 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  52  85  56  86 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  54  86  60  89 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  56  77  60  83 /  20  10  10  10
P28  57  80  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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