Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper level trough will move slowly northeastward from the
Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains today. The
strongest dynamical forcing with this wave will lift north with the
right rear quad of the upper jet into northwest Kansas. Some minor
upper cooling moves into western Kansas this morning and today with
some possible scattered thunderstorms, then more widespread
thunderstorms near and east of Dodge City into the evening. QPF will
be around 1/4 of an inch mainly east of Dodge to Hays and Meade line.
Some storms may have some small hail and gusty winds. An associated
cold front will move into western Kansas and stall out near Dodge
City. Some partial clearing will be found across far western Kansas
with mostly cloudy skies and mid clouds from near Dodge City and
east. Highs today will be cooler with the expected cloud cover and
frontal boundary with highs from the low to mid 80s.

For tonight, as the upper trough moves northeast, much of the
rainfall and storms will be east of Dodge City with a stronger push
of cold air after midnight and towards morning. Winds shift from
light and variable to north at 20 to 30 mph. Lows will be in the
lower 50s near Garden City and west and mid 50s around Dodge, with
low 60s around Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

For Sunday and Monday, the main upper trough moves into the upper
Great Lakes with a cutoff low across the Desert Southwest. Rain and
thunder will be ending in parts of south central Kansas, east and
southeast of Dodge City on Sunday, then some clearing skies and
northwest winds on Monday.

For the period of of Monday into next Friday, with upper level
ridging dominating the Plains, expect no rainfall, except for late
Thursday into Friday with a weak southern branch upper wave.

Highs will be only in the 70s for Sunday into Tuesday, the slowly
warm back into the low to mid 80s into Friday. Lows will be in the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR will prevail through Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to
remain primarily east of the TAF sites this afternoon.
Redevelopment is expected after 19z, east of a LBL-DDC-HYS line.
Close enough to include a VCTS mention for the DDC/HYS TAFs for a
few hours this afternoon. South winds this afternoon will become
light and variable for a time this evening. A strong cold front is
scheduled to arrive around 09z Sun, producing north winds gusting
30-35 kts. North winds will remain strong and gusty Sunday
morning, then diminish Sunday afternoon.


DDC  82  56  73  45 /  50  30  10   0
GCK  82  54  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  81  52  71  45 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  83  56  73  45 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  80  54  72  45 /  30  30   0   0
P28  84  63  73  49 /  70  70  30  10


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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