Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Upper level troughing over southern California will progress
eastward and approach western Kansas by early to mid next week.
Surface troughing will increase ahead of this system, with low
levels warming and moistening. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper
level system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest through
Sunday and then across the northern Rockies and northern plains by
Tuesday. This northern stream system will help push a cold front
into western Kansas by Wednesday. The associated front will stall
out and lose identity over the southern plains by Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

With surface troughing on the high plains and southerly winds,
temperatures today should warm into the lower to middle 80s given
plenty of sun. Tonight won`t be as cool as previous nights given
the south winds and vertical mixing, with lows in the lower to
middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Thunderstorm chances will increase by later Tuesday and Wednesday
as upper level troughing approaches the destabilizing lower
levels. The best chance of storms may be Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with lingering storms over south central Kansas
Wednesday. The storms Tuesday may be severe with large hail given
the expected moderate surface based CAPE and strong upper level
winds approaching 60 kts. High temperatures will increase to near
90 by Monday and into the lower 90s by Tuesday given the surface
lee troughing. Cooler highs in the lower 80s can be expected by
Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out by Friday and Saturday as shortwave energy moves across
the plains and low level warm advection resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Surface high pressure over the central plains will shift to the
east, with a surface trough developing in the lee of the Rockies
by Sunday. This will result in light winds becoming southerly at
10 to 15 kts by 14-16z. VFR conditions can be expected with only
some high level cloudiness.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  85  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  54  85  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  55  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  55  85  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  85  60  87 /   0   0   0  10
P28  55  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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