Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160152
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
852 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Cancelled the remaining severe thunderstorm watch for all SW KS
counties. Widespread hail and wind event across the eastern zones
has ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Winds will be mostly zonal over Kansas through tomorrow with an
upper level ridge over northern Mexico and an upper level low
sliding eastward across central Canada. Towards the surface, an
area of low pressure is currently sitting somewhere across west
central Kansas with a cold front extending southward into portions
of western Kansas and a warm front extending eastward into
portions of central Kansas. Storms are progged to first form along
the warm front this afternoon with more development possible along
the cold front as it slowly treks eastward today. The atmosphere
will be very unstable this afternoon with ample CAPE and SHEAR.
That means that any storms that do form will be capable of
becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concern. Any storms that do develop are expected to move out of
the CWA by midnight with decreasing cloudiness thereafter. The
frontal boundary mentioned earlier will retrograde back to the
east tomorrow and bifurcate the CWA tomorrow. There will be a
slight chance of storms along northern Kansas and I-70 corridor
late in the afternoon. Otherwise expect clear to partly cloudy
skies. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around
60 degrees along the KS/CO border to upper 60s across south
central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to soar into the upper 90s
with a few places possibly reaching the 100 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The CWA looks to remain generally dry through the long term period
as an upper level ridge builds across the southwestern United
States. One exception to this will be Saturday as an upper level
shortwave slides through the Northern Plains and in turn push a
cold front through the area. A few thunderstorms may form across
northern Kansas and northern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, only
an increase in cloud cover will be present. Another exception will
be next Wednesday as models suggest another disturbance moving
through the area. As for temperatures, highs will reach into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees Saturday then down into the 80s
Sunday behind the aforementioned front. Western Kansas then
rebounds into the 90s for the remainder of the long term period.
Lows will generally be in the 60s to low 70s with the exception of
Sunday night when lows will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will persist for the next few hours this
evening, mainly south of HYS and east of DDC. Convection is
expected to grow upscale into a thunderstorm complex and exit into
central Kansas by 03z Fri. VFR/SKC expected at all airports
tonight, with VFR and light winds continuing on Friday. There is a
signal in the models for isolated thunderstorms near HYS again by
21z Friday, but expecting much less activity than was seen today.
Only included VCTS/CB in the HYS TAF Friday afternoon for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  97  69 100 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  65 101  65 102 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  61  99  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65 100  67 104 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  66  97  68  97 /  20  30  10  10
P28  69  96  72 101 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner



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