Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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798
FXUS63 KDDC 290900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Updated short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

An area of light rainshowers was moving east across southwest
Kansas early this morning. This precipitation appears to be
forced by mid level warm advection as well as the left exit
region of an upper level jet that is nosing out into the southern
Plains from northwest Mexico. The short term models such as the
NAM and GFS as well as the convective allowing ARW/NMM models tend
to move the precipitation east across southwest into south central
Kansas through much of the day before moving it southeast into
Oklahoma later this afternoon. With daytime heating and the
approach of a weak disturbance from the southwest this afternoon,
think that showers and thunderstorms should increase somewhat in
areal coverage and intensity by this afternoon across the far
southern portions of southwest Kansas before it moves off into
Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. Instability and forcing
parameters are not overly strong this afternoon but there could be
a few storms capable of producing quarter size or larger hail and
strong winds. These should mainly be confined along or just north
of the Oklahoma border. Some of the models are suggesting that
additional convection firing off of the Front Range and Raton Mesa
could also move into far southwest Kansas this evening. The going
forecast has a pretty good handle on this with precipitation
chances diminishing late this evening and overnight.

Model soundings show temperatures in the mixed layer around or a
degree or two above Saturdays temperature profile so afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Through the middle part of the week, an upper level low over the
Desert Southwest will slowly approach the central and southern
Plains and will eventually phase up with another closed low
dropping out of southwest Canada into the northern Plains. Weak
disturbances ahead of these systems will help focus areas of
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the High Plains,
especially as increasingly moist low level southerly flow develops
across the central and southern Plains.

As the upper systems approach, a cold front will push south into
the central High Plains late Monday night and Tuesday. This
feature will be the focus for thunderstorms across central and
parts of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

As the upper systems moves east of the central Plains on Wednesday,
dry northwest flow aloft will set up over western Kansas. We
should have a couple of dry days through the latter part of the
week. The GFS and ECMWF are both hinting at another cold frontal
passage next weekend which could bring another chance for
thunderstorms to the area. There is more uncertainty between the
models on the timing of this next front however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms currently over far southeast
Colorado will propagate across southwest Kansas through the early
morning hours. This area should move east of the Dodge City and Garden
City terminals by mid morning. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop
across central and southwest Kansas during the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms closer to the Oklahoma border could produce large
hail and 60-70 mph winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  59  82  61 /  30  30  30  40
GCK  83  58  83  61 /  30  30  30  40
EHA  85  57  86  59 /  30  30  20  30
LBL  84  58  85  61 /  30  30  30  40
HYS  81  59  82  60 /  20  30  50  60
P28  83  62  83  63 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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