Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 120021
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
...updated Friday temps...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.
For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.
For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 31 47 21 41 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 29 50 23 46 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 33 56 30 58 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 31 55 27 50 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 28 38 19 36 / 0 0 10 10
P28 32 47 21 39 / 0 0 0 10