Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180847
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
347 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, mainly east of Highway 283 with the
possibility of strong long track tornadoes across south central
Kansas this evening.

Before storms develop, winds will generally be from an easterly
direction with stratus clouds dissipating across southwest Kansas
by this afternoon. Cloudy conditions are anticipated to continue
across west central and central Kansas.

Leading up to the event, an upper level low is expected to move
out of the Great Basin region this morning and into the Central
Rockies. A shortwave will move around this feature and into the
Central Plains by this afternoon. Moreover, the exit region of a
mid level jet of 50+ knots will reach into southwest Kansas this
afternoon. Closer to the surface, a plume of very moist air
(currently across the eastern half of Texas) will advect northward
into central and eastern portions of Kansas by this afternoon. A
warm front is anticipated to slide northward as the day
progresses. A dryline will also form across southwest Kansas this
afternoon. Winds south of the warm front and ahead of the dryline
will generally be from the east to southeast with winds behind
the dryline from the south to southwest.

Thunderstorms are forecasted to develop along the dryline late
this afternoon and trek eastward into the early evening. The
atmosphere will be very unstable by this afternoon east of the
aforementioned dryline with CAPE values above 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear over 40 knots. Any storms that develop in this environment
will be capable of becoming severe with hail over one inch in
diameter and damaging winds being the main concern. In fact, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail over 2 inches
in diameter, winds over 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. The risk for
long track tornadoes becomes more prevalent early this evening
as low level directional and speed shear increases. This will most
likely be farther east across south central Kansas at this time.
Other storms will be possible late afternoon into the overnight
period across west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor. The
storms in this area will also be capable of becoming severe but
more on the lower end severe criteria. As for temperatures, highs
today look to range from the mid 60s across west central Kansas to
mid 80s across south central Kansas. Lows tonight are anticipated
to range from the mid 40s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The upper level low will slowly slide eastward into the Central
High Plains Friday before ejecting northeastward into the Northern
Plains Friday night into Saturday. A second shortwave will move
around this low Friday afternoon into Friday evening bringing
another chance of severe weather to central Kansas. The main
concern with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds
and should move out of the CWA by midnight. A few storms will also
be possible across west central Kansas but don`t look to be as
strong. A dry period will then be found across western Kansas
Saturday into Sunday afternoon with decreased cloudiness. This
will be short lived as a series of upper level shortwaves move
into the area bringing a chance of precipitation Sunday night into
Monday. The remainder of the long term forecast looks much
quieter. As for temperatures, highs will generally range from the
mid 60s to mid 70s with lows ranging from the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Low level stratus will envelop west central Kansas as well as
portions of central and southwest Kansas this morning. This will
bring MVFR conditions to the area. The low clouds should
dissipate across southwest Kansas this morning with continued
cloudy skies across west central and central Kansas. Thunderstorms
will be possible around the DDC and HYS terminals this afternoon
leading to periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds will generally
be from an easterly drystone this morning increasing to above 12
knots by late morning. A dryline will form this afternoon with
southerly winds felt around the GCK and LBL terminals with
southeasterly winds around the DDC and HYS terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  52  72  45 /  70  70  30  20
GCK  74  48  69  42 /  30  30  30  20
EHA  75  46  68  42 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  81  49  73  44 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  68  53  67  43 /  70  80  50  40
P28  85  59  77  50 /  80  80  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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