Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to strengthen across the southern
Rockies today into tonight with a 250 mb 50+ knot jet positioned
above eastern Colorado and Kansas. Another weak shortwave is progged
to move around this ridge during the afternoon into evening and help
increase lift across portions of the CWA. Mid levels of the
atmosphere are a little more moist than yesterday but I do not
believe it will be enough to produce copious amounts of clouds
throughout the day. This is different as you head to the surface as
low level moisture will be abundant allowing for stratus to be found
during the morning hours. These clouds should dissipate by afternoon
leaving mostly clear skies. Temperatures to return back to normal
for this time of year this afternoon with highs ranging from the
upper 80s across central and south central Kansas where clouds will
hang around the longest to mid 90s across the KS/CO border. A trough
of low pressure will be located across eastern Colorado throughout
the day with southerly winds being felt across the forecast area.
Towards the late afternoon, a few storms are expected to form across
the KS/CO border and slide east during the evening hours. With
MLCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg and 0-6 shear above 20 knots, a few of
these storms may become severe with hail and damaging winds being
the main concern. This activity should weaken and dissipate by
midnight leaving partly cloudy skies for the rest of the night. Lows
by Sunday morning look to be in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Several subtle upper level disturbance will rotate around an
upper high which move from New Mexico into Colorado through
Wednesday. Exact timing of any of these subtle features from late
Sunday into Tuesday remains unclear, however both the GFS and
ECMWF continues to agree with one of more significant these
features exiting the Rockies and moving out into the northeast
Kansas by Monday night. Warming mid level temperatures may limit
the convection potential along a trough of low pressure at the
surface near the Colorado border late Sunday and again on Monday,
however given a south/southeast flow drawing low to mid 60
dewpoints towards this surface boundary, and late day instability
am reluctant to remove all mention of thunderstorm chances near
this surface boundary Sunday night or Monday night. On Monday
night will expand small chances east into north central Kansas as
the upper level trough crosses northwest Kansas.

Temperatures climbing in to the mid to upper 90s on Sunday still
looks on track based on the 00z Monday 850mb to 700mb temperatures
across western Kansas. Highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees
still appears reasonable across western Kansas from Monday through
Wednesday based on forecast mixing depth and 850mb to 700mb
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Early morning status at 300ft to 700ft AGL along with some patchy fog
will improve/clear to VFR conditions between 14z and 17z based on
NAM BUFR soundings and the latest HRRR. Southerly winds at around
15knots will continue today as a trough of low pressure remain
nearly stationary near the Colorado border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  69  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  93  68  98  70 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  95  67  97  69 /  40  50  20  20
LBL  94  69  98  71 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  89  69  98  72 /  10  10  10  20
P28  88  69  94  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert






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