Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Like yesterday, a nice fall day is occurring in Southwest Kansas.
Unlike yesterday, the wind is less than 10 mph this afternoon and
evening. Very little change to the upper level northwest flow
today over the region today, and with this dry airmass, skies will
keep clear. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70s, and
with the clear skies, a few areas reaching 80 can`t be ruled out.
Tonight, wind will remain light with lows in the mid to upper
40s.

Tomorrow, a fast-moving upper level trough will enter British
Columbia and track into central Manitoba by mid-day tomorrow. This
will create a large area of surface low pressure reaching into
western Kansas. This will push a weak boundary into our CWA;
the only impact to our region will be a lack of wind tomorrow
afternoon as the trough axis moves through. Highs tomorrow should
reach the lower 80s, and will result in another tranquil, fall
day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

On Thursday, the upper level flow shifts southwest as a shortwave
enters the Central Plains ahead of a trough that will affect the
region over the weekend. This shortwave will increase the surface
pressure gradient over Western Kansas due to deepening lee
troughing in Eastern Colorado, and therefore will increase the
southerly winds and create gusts to 20-25 mph by the afternoon.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday, reaching
the upper 70s. H85 moisture will start to advect into the region
to the point where clouds will start to increase by late day,
especially in the eastern zones, but we will remain dry. Wind will
remain strong overnight. Lows will be higher, into the mid- 50s,
due to mixing.

Friday into Saturday, models continue to have good consensus on
the arrival and path of a progressive, upper level trough entering
the Central Plains. This will cause the lee troughing in Colorado
to deepen, and the surface pressure gradient to tighten on
Friday/Saturday. Have collaborated with neighboring offices to
increase wind on Friday to gust to 35-40 mph. Clouds will continue
to increase on Friday, especially in our western zones, which
will cause temperatures on Friday to have a slight gradient with
80s in the northwest and mid-70s in the southeast. Wind will stay
strong overnight, and continue gusting Saturday until the cold
front passes. The best chance for rain for our region will be
Saturday afternoon, along the H85 moisture transport region ahead
of the front, which at the moment is limited to our eastern
counties. Right now QPF is only reaching about .03 inches for our
eastern zones, due to the majority of convection occurring in
Central and Eastern Kansas. Saturday`s highs will also have a
gradient due to fropa, with mid- 60s in our northwestern zones and
mid-70s in our southeastern zones. Lows Friday and Saturday night
will be similar, reaching 50s in our northwest zones and 60s in
the southeast.

Upper level ridging and northwest flow returns to western Kansas
on Sunday night through Tuesday. Surface high pressure enters the
region Sunday into Monday, which will keep winds light and the
area dry. High temperatures will be cooler Sunday through Tuesday,
reaching lower 70s. Lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Excellent aviation weather is expected to prevail through the
period with VFR conditions forecast throughout. Winds will average
6 to 10 knots through the period, with calm or near calm wind for
at least a few hours during the day Wednesday as the lee trough
broadens to the east, keeping the pressure gradient and resulting
winds well to the east across eastern KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  83  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  81  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  83  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  80  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
P28  47  80  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Umscheid



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