Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 211103
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Very warm across SW KS this morning, with thick cirrus preventing
radiational cooling, along with south winds keeping the atmosphere
mixed. Still 78 here at the office as of 12:15 AM, and the normal
high at Dodge City for September 21 is 80. Temperatures will
struggle to get much below 70 at sunrise.
A persistence forecast continues for today. Unseasonably hot
afternoon temperatures for another day, although likely a few
degrees less hot compared to recent days, given the expected thick
mid/high cloud cover. Low to mid 90s will be common, with again
south winds gusting over 30 mph at times. NAM forecasts a lee side
surface low of 1000 mb in eastern Colorado this afternoon, so
statistical guidance for winds today is quite high, but thick
cloud cover may temper the gustiness some. Infrared satellite
this morning reveals cirrus engulfing Kansas, and stacked up back
to Las Vegas. As such a mostly cloudy sky is expected by this
afternoon with ceilings lowering some. NAM and various convection
allowing models forecast isolated thunderstorms along the lee
trough/dryline along the CO/KS border by 7 pm. Included some
modest pops (20-30%) across the western/northern zones this
evening to cover this possibility. The threat of severe wind/hail
from this activity is very low, and agree with SPC outlook,
placing the severe threat well NE of SW KS this afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Thursday and Friday...Not much will change, with persistent much
above normal temperatures and persistent south winds. South winds
will gust 30-40 mph each afternoon, especially Friday. Highs in
the 90s will continue with morning lows well above normal as well.
Strong upper low in Nevada Thursday afternoon will open up into a
vigorous trough and swing into the northern Rockies on Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night and
Saturday, with the initial frontal passage, and as negatively
tilted shortwave offers glancing forcing for ascent. All models
continue to struggle with consistency regarding the finer details
as this broad trough moves onto the plains this weekend. That
said, they all do agree that the trough will be progressive
enough to shunt the expected heavy rain axis east of SW KS.
00z ECMWF continues to forecast a significant rain event for
central/eastern Kansas this weekend, cranking out 2-4 inches.
Amounts are expected to be much less in SW KS, as drier air
rushes into our part of the state. Continue to have high
confidence that much cooler air will pour onto the plains Sunday
and Monday, with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and 70s.
Monday and Tuesday mornings are expected to be the coolest so far
in this young fall season, well down into the 40s.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Southerly winds will increase 20 to 30kt through early
this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure strengthens
across eastern Colorado.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 68 93 66 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 93 66 93 65 / 20 20 10 0
EHA 94 62 93 61 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 96 65 95 63 / 10 20 0 0
HYS 92 70 90 67 / 20 30 20 10
P28 94 70 93 67 / 10 10 0 0