Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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685
FXUS63 KDDC 162330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A Rex Block pattern over western North America into northern
Mexico this morning is in the process of getting kicked eastward
as a strong upper level trough approaches from the eastern
Pacific. Over the next 24 hours, the closed low currently over
northern Mexico will shift into the southern Plains. There is not
much moisture currently associated with this low and only some
scattered cloudiness and isolated showers have been noted over
west Texas. This system will pull some Gulf moisture up into the
southern Plains on Friday but it will be east of the High Plains
before this happens.

Mainly clear skies can be expected over western Kansas overnight
and Friday. Low temperatures should drop into the 30s again given
the clear skies and dewpoints continuing in the 20s. Highs on
Friday will again be fairly warm by February standards but should
be a few degrees under todays high temperatures, especially in the
western counties where a wind shift is expected to move in during
the day and shut off the downslope flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The medium range models continue to show the next upper level
trough moving onshore over the West Coast on Saturday and then
progressing into the central CONUS Sunday night and Monday. Low
level moisture return into central and western Kansas will be more
substantial on Sunday ahead of this wave. The increase in low and
mid level moisture should hold temperatures back somewhat on
Sunday and some low stratus could develop by afternoon. The
models show some very limited instability moving out with the
wave Sunday night. Will continue to mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms through that time but it may not be out of the
question that any thunder could stay south of southwest Kansas.

Through the early to middle part of next week, the GFS and ECMWF
show the trough evolving into a big closed low over south Texas, cut
off from the northern stream and eventually heading east along the
Gulf Coast. Over the central High Plains, a southwest to northeast
oriented short wave ridge will move over through mid week, bringing
clearing and dry conditions. Models have been struggling day to
day with the overall pattern evolution over the CONUS during the
latter part of next week, but it appears that another strong upper
level system will move out toward the central Plains with a deep
surface low response developing somewhere over Nebraska or Kansas.
Still several days away but this system could develop into a
fairly significant storm with potentially severe weather over
parts of the central and southern Plains along with significant
wind and snow in the cold sector.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The prolonged tranquil aviation weather period will continue
through Friday as winds remain at or below 10 knots from the
southwest. A weak leeside trough will push across western Kansas,
and winds along the trough axis will become light and variable
through much of the day Friday under continued clear to mostly
clear sky cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  71  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  31  70  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  32  69  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  71  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  70  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  71  40  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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