Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 102003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Needed to issue a Red Flag Warning for parts of southwest Kansas
as winds have mixed deeply and were 15 to 25kt. Relative
humidities have fallen to less than 15 percent. The area will be
from Gray to Hodgeman, Ford, Edwards, and Kiowa counties through 6
pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For tonight, a cold front will switch warm northwesterly downslope
winds to the north at 5 to 12 mph. Some low stratus may develop
around the I-70 corridor towards morning with some residual
boundary layer moisture from melting snow, otherwise skies will be
mostly clear. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s. Slightly
warmer lows will be along the Oklahoma border from 30 to 33
degrees.

For Thursday, dry northwesterly upper level flow prevails. Light and
variable winds become southerly at 5 to 15 mph as cooler surface
high pressure slides east into the Mississippi Valley, and low
pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Skies will be partly
cloudy with highs ranging from the mid 60s far west toward the
Colorado border, to around 60 at Dodge, and low to mid 50s east of
Dodge City.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A shortwave trough, on the backside of an upper low across Canada,
will move across the Upper Midwest on Friday into Saturday. This
system will push a strong cold front into the Plains on Friday into
Friday night and Saturday. North to northeasterly winds will
increase to 15 to 25 mph with the cold front then become
southeasterly on Saturday. Highs on Friday will be only in the 40s
near Hays to around 50 at Dodge and around 60 far west towards the
Colorado border. Highs on Saturday will be colder with only mid to
upper 30s near and east of Dodge City. Temps will be warmer west of
Dodge and around 50 at Liberal to near 60 at Elkhart. Lots of low
stratus and fog should form in the colder airmass from Friday night
into Saturday. Some patchy freezing drizzle is also possible near
and north of Dodge City to Garden City by Saturday morning as warm
advection develops. If clouds linger near Dodge City and east, highs
may be even colder on Saturday.

For the period of Sunday into next Wednesday, a shortwave trough
moves across the Plains on Sunday, but should be dry. Warmer ridging
then moves into the Plains into Wednesday with a warming trend.
Highs Sunday warm from 50 to the mid 50s, into the 60s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Expect VFR conditions, except for KHYS. Some low stratus is
forecast to develop around 11-13Z as winds become light and some
residual boundary layer moisture is available due to snow melt.
Otherwise, downslope winds prevail at 12-24kt becoming light after
23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  57  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  61  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  65  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  62  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  49  31  43 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  54  32  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ064-077>080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kruse
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse


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