Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222338
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
638 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Thick cirrus spreading across Kansas at midday in response to
divergence aloft. South winds will remain strong and gusty through
early evening, in response to 995 mb surface leeside low in
Nebraska. Some gusts near 35 mph, especially near Garden City,
where they have already occurred.

Weak closed low and associated vorticity maxima will arrive on
the KS/CO border by 7 pm. Lift ahead of this feature will interact
with what limited instability there is, to generate isolated
convection across SW KS through tonight. Kept pop grids
conservative, limited mainly to the isolated/slight chance
category with lift weak and moisture lackluster. Still, at least a
small chance of a shower/storm appears warranted in most zones
through tonight. South winds will remain elevated overnight, in
response to a strong LLJ and 850 mb winds to near 50 kts. With the
mixing and enhanced cloud cover with passing shortwave, low
temperatures will be warmer than normal by several degrees, with
upper 60s common Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...Hot and windy. Surface low deepens in NW Kansas through
the day, resulting in strong, gusty SW winds of 20-35 mph by
afternoon. With this downslope component, and models cranking
850 mb temperatures about 5C tomorrow, followed the warmest
guidance with max temperatures in the mid 90s. Models develop
moderate instability across the eastern zones Tuesday afternoon,
east of a dryline projected to bisect the CWA along a Wakeeney-
Dodge City-Liberal line by late afternoon. Best shear/instability
combination expected to be in NE KS and eastern Nebraska. For
SW KS, kept pops limited to mainly slight chance/isolated along
and east of the dryline, with forcing more limited and capping
increasing (700 mb temps near 14C by evening). Highest probability
of a strong to marginally severe storm will be across the NE zones
Tuesday afternoon, per marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities from
SPC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Next cold front scheduled to slide through SW KS on Wednesday,
with winds becoming northerly through the day. Instability
expected to be sufficient to generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the sagging boundary, especially east where
the moisture supply will be greater. Although multicell storm
modes will prevail, CAPE will support some strong to severe
convection as per SPC Day 3 5% wind/hail probabilities. 12z NAM
suggests this potential hazard will be focused mainly SE of
Dodge City. Passing frontal boundary will create a healthy
temperature gradient Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures
ranging from the upper 70s in Hamilton county to the lower 90s in
Barber county.

Thursday...Much cooler. Another refreshing autumn preview, as
1024 mb Canadian high pressure builds into Nebraska. North winds
Thursday morning, with stratus, drizzle and low ceilings expected.
Kept pop grids in the scattered/chance category, with isentropic
lift shown by some models over the boundary. Followed guidance
with max temperatures reduced back to the mid 70s, but it may end
up cooler if stratus does not break or overrunning rain persists.

Friday through Sunday...Warming trend expected, as the cool air
retreats and the atmosphere warms progressively daily. Back to
near normal (upper 80s/near 90) by Sunday. 12z ECMWF tracks
shortwave trough from the Great Basin/northern Nevada Friday,
to near Salt Lake City Saturday, and the Nebraska panhandle on
Sunday. As this system approaches, SW flow over the lee trough
will keep moisture/instability available across SW KS through this
period. Slight chance/chance pops warranted each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A small cluster of showers and storms have developed north of
Syracuse and will continue spreading northeast. Later this
evening, another round of more numerous storms are likely across
west central into northwest Kansas and possible even as far east
as the vicinity of Garden City. The surface pressure gradient
will maintain winds out of the south overnight, becoming gusty
again once boundary layer mixing develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  94  69  85 /  20  20  20  40
GCK  67  95  66  80 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  65  93  65  81 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  69  94  68  85 /  20  20  20  30
HYS  68  93  67  81 /  20  20  20  40
P28  69  93  72  91 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell


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