Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251655
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1155 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...Updated synopsis and aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

At 12z Tuesday a 500mb high was located over Colorado. One 500mb
thermal trough was located over western Nebraska which was
embedded in a northwesterly flow. Another, stronger upper level
system was located around southern California. Over the central
high plains this morning a 700mb temperature gradient was located
across far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. 700mb temperatures
this morning at 12z ranged from +10c at Dodge City to +15c at
Denver. A wedge of higher mid level moisture was located just east
of this baroclinic zone. A surface to 850mb trough was located
across eastern Colorado.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate
the weather picture across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Weak northwesterly flow aloft will be in place over western Kansas
through tonight. at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure had
developed across eastern portions of wyoming and colorado and this
feature is progged to remain nearly unchanged through the next 24
hours. In spite of increasing low level moisture, NAM and GFS
BUFR soundings show fairly dry and stable conditions across the
region through tonight. Areas along the Colorado border stand the
best chance of seeing an isolated thunderstorm as model soundings
there indicate the least stable conditions. None of the latest
model guidance suggests that we will see any storms in southwest
Kansas this evening as the weak upper level northwest flow should
not be enough to push any storms off the front range into western
Kansas.

Temperatures will continue to ease upward through the next few
days as the lower atmosphere slowly warms. High temperatures this
afternoon should be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday with
overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

An upper level disturbance over northwest Mexico this morning will
lift northward through the Four Corners region on Wednesday and
then top the ridge and move southeast across the northern and
central High Plains on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will begin
to ramp up Wednesday night and then peak on Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening as the upper disturbance along with an associated
weak cold front at the surface moves through. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop across the area, especially along
the front, and will likely be more numerous toward central Kansas.

The upper disturbance and cold front move through the area by
Friday morning with rain ending and skies becoming mostly sunny
again. We will return to a warmer and drier pattern for the
weekend as the upper ridge builds east into the central Plains.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a trend toward upper level
troughing developing over western North America. The GFS keeps
the main upper level flow over the western and northern portions
of the CONUS while the ECMWF is a little deeper with the upper
trough. Either way, increasing southwesterly flow aloft could mean
better chances for precipitation across the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A south to southeast wind at 10 to 15 knots will continue into
the overnight hours as a trough of low pressure at the surface
remains nearly stationary near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions are expected based on latest BUFR soundings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  91  65  96  69 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  94  67  96  69 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  92  67  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  90  62  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  64  94  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert


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