Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a general
westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an
upper level shortwave is tracking slowly eastward across southern
California. Near the surface, a lee side trough is slowly
strengthening across extreme western Kansas. A pool of low level
moisture has settled across central Kansas with surface dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s(F). Much drier air is noted across far
southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints down into the lower to mid
20s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Two upper level shortwaves will move east towards western Kansas
bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. The first
shortwave is a weakening as it passes through the Four Corners
region today and into the Central High Plains tonight. The second
shortwave will move southeast across western Canada today then
through the Intermountain west tonight. Towards the surface, a dome
of high pressure will be located well east of the area with an area
of low pressure intensifying across western Kansas. Low level
moisture will advect northward east of this low with the possibility
of low clouds developing across central and south central Kansas
early this morning. The remainder of the forecast area should only
observe high clouds throughout the day. Farther west, winds will
generally be from the southwest bringing up dry air from New Mexico.
A dryline will be present in between these two airmasses this
afternoon. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across
central and south central Kansas late this afternoon just ahead of
this dryline.  However, chances are low due to a strong mid level
cap across this same area. Warm temperatures are expected today with
highs ranging from the lower 80s across the I-70 corridor to around
90 degrees across the KS/OK border.

A better chance of precipitation will be possible across central
Kansas this evening into the overnight along a frontal boundary. A
few of these storms may become severe with large hail and strong
winds being the main concern. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies
with increasing mid level clouds towards sunrise. The aforementioned
frontal boundary in the previous paragraph will slowly sag southward
after midnight with northerly winds felt behind it. Lows tonight are
expected to range from the mid 40s across west central Kansas to
upper 50s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

The forecast on whole was in pretty good shape for the most part,
however the greatest change was the increased detail in POPs for
Sunday as subsynoptic scale details are beginning to emerge with
greater skill. The higher resolution NAM12 and WRF-ARW models were
used in tandem with the ECMWF model to arrive at the official
precipitation forecast for Sunday and Sunday Night...as these two
mesoscale models were showing the most reasonable precipitation
signals against where the ECMWF was showing the best 700mb
frontogenetic forcing. The first half of Sunday will be mainly dry
across much of the forecast area with the 700mb saturated baroclinic
zone still situated from east central CO into northwestern KS. The
first shortwave trough which helped induce this 700mb zone of
frontogenesis will be moving across Oklahoma/southern Kansas during
the day Sunday. We will keep some chance POPs in Barber County for
early afternoon thunderstorm potential, but anything that develops
that far northwest early in the day will quickly move out of the
western portions of south central Kansas as the surface front
advances east. We will maintain the original forecast of
temperatures falling through the 40s across much of southwest Kansas
during the afternoon hours as intense low level cold air advection
maximizes from late morning through mid-afternoon. This will also be
when the north winds will be strongest with 25 to 35 mph sustained
winds during the 3-5 hr period of greatest pressure rises.

Precipitation chances ramp up during the afternoon hours in the
northwest (northwest of Hugoton-Garden City-LaCrosse line) as the
700mb saturated baroclinic zone slowly pushes south. The zone of
frontogenesis will become more elongated and actually weaken by
afternoon into Sunday evening as the shortwave trough digging south
through western Colorado will alter the 700mb flow field favoring
greatest lift out west. We will have the highest POPs Sunday Night
in the far west and during this time is when precipitation will
change to all snow as 850mb temperatures fall to colder than -2C
over much of southwest Kansas. We will carry around an inch to inch
and a half of snow in the grids generally west of Highway 25 to the
Colorado border, with a sloppy half inch or less elsewhere mainly on
grassy and elevated surfaces. Freezing temperatures early Monday
morning are likely, especially west of an Ashland to Bucklin to
Larned line.

Monday and beyond...the weather will quiet down as upper level
ridging moves toward the High Plains. The ridge will quickly flatten
out with more zonal west-northwest flow taking shape by late
Tuesday.  The result will be lee trough development and a warming of
temperatures back into the 60s.  Wednesday will be the warmest day
just ahead of the next front as a shortwave trough moves across the
Northern Plains. There will be another fresh resurgence of cold air
into western Kansas late in the week with highs Thursday down into
the lower to mid 50s.  The AllBlend guidance appears to be on the
warm side per latest ECMWF model, so the official forecast
temperatures for Thursday will likely continue to drop. Any
precipitation with this frontal system Wednesday Night into Thursday
should be fairly light given the fast-moving nature of the storm
system within the larger scale pattern and the fact that the main
500mb vorticity anomaly will be passing north of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Light winds are forecast today with speeds expected to be 10 knots
or less throughout the day into tonight. A brief period of IFR
ceiling and/or visibility can be expected at HYS early this
morning, but this moisture will begin to push east by mid morning
with VFR expected thereafter. Deteriorating aviation weather is
expected Sunday as an intense cold front moves in resulting in
very strong north winds and MVFR or IFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  61  30 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  83  49  57  28 /   0  10  30  50
EHA  84  50  61  29 /   0  10  60  70
LBL  86  51  64  29 /   0  10  20  60
HYS  80  51  55  30 /  20  30  40  40
P28  85  60  71  33 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid






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