Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016


Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Light rain was occurring this afternoon over south central Kansas
ahead of a shortwave trough. A longwave upper level trough will
develop over the southwestern United States by Saturday and then
persist for several days. In response, lee troughing will develop
along with south winds and low level moisture return. A surface
dryline separating moist air to the east from dry air to the west
will develop by Friday afternoon and then persist through Sunday.
A surface warm front will also progress northward into Kansas by
Saturday. By Monday, the upper level trough will be close enough
so that the associated cold front will progress southward into
western Kansas. This front will likely stall out over Kansas or
Oklahoma by Monday night and Tuesday. The main upper level trough
over the western United States will progress into the plains by
mid to late next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Light rain over south central Kansas will gradually exit
this evening with the passage of the aforementioned shortwave
trough. This trough will not result in a cold frontal passage.
Instead, surface winds will remain from the south and southeast.
Low level moisture advection from the southeast this evening will
result in a continuation of low clouds through tonight and into
early Friday. With diurnal cooling, cloud bases will lower to a
few hundred feet. Increasing moisture will prevent temperatures
from falling much below 50 degrees tonight. Despite the moisture
return on Friday, western Kansas will still be in the long wave
ridge position so that any convection will be isolated at best.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Temperatures will continue to warm by Saturday with upper 80s in
far western Kansas behind the dryline and upper 70s to lower 80s
in central Kansas. There is a little better chance of isolated
thunderstorms by Saturday as low level moisture continues to
increase. The dryline and warm front could serve to initiate
storms. These storms could be severe with large hail. By Sunday a
shortwave trough will be ejected into Colorado in a weakened
state. With a dryline over far western Kansas, there is a chance
of thunderstorms with very large hail and possibly tornadoes.
Highs will be mainly in the 80s on Sunday with lower 80s in
central Kansas. By Monday, thunderstorm development is expected
along the cold front and any outflow boundary from previous storm
clusters. There is a chance that any thunderstorms will be south
of the Oklahoma state line by this time. Thunderstorm chances
increase again by Monday night and Tuesday as the front moved back
to the north along with the low level moisture. There is a chance
of thunderstorms through Wednesday and Thursday as the main upper
level trough ejects into the southern high plains region. The best
chance for thunderstorms and severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday is
in central and south central Kansas where richer low level
moisture will reside. Temperatures will be a little cooler on
Monday in the wake of the front. High temperatures by mid week
will depend on the evolution of convective storm clusters.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The focus in this period will be stratus and the LIFR impacts
through large part of the day. A relatively moist cool and
importantly easterly upslope surface wind trajectory will promote
the reinforcement of this stratus layer into the day on Friday.
There could be some hope for breaks at gck later in the day,
however at least hys and ddc will likely remain in the low clouds
through the TAF period.


DDC  50  70  55  83 /  10  10  10  30
GCK  50  73  54  85 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  50  80  54  87 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  50  78  55  85 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  49  69  54  78 /  10  10  20  20
P28  51  71  56  79 /  30  10  20  20


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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