Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

A surface cyclone over eastern Colorado will rapidly intensify as
an upper level system ejects north-northeastward into the northern
plains today. A band of showers with embedded, isolated thunder
has passed through western Kansas this morning. However, as the
upper level system approaches this afternoon, additional shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to rapidly sweep across the
area. A narrow band of surface based CAPE around 250-500 j/kg is
expected by early this afternoon ahead of the front on the western
extremity of the moist axis from Wakeeney to Dodge City to
Englewood and then rapidly shift eastward into central Kansas by
mid to late afternoon. A warm layer around 600mb may prevent
convection from reaching higher than 13000 ft AGL so that hail is
not likely. However, showers/thunderstorms along/ahead of the
front could mix strong mid level winds to the surface, resulting
in localized areas of damaging winds. Mid level cooling and
daytime heating will result in steep lapse rates so that strong
winds should mix to the surface behind the cold front that has
been modified by downslope. Temperatures will warm into the 60s
immediately behind the front as skies clear. Gusts as high as
50-55 mph are possible for locations such as Liberal, Sublette and
Elkhart and a few gusts as high as 60 mph cannot be ruled out.
Behind the front, temperatures will fall into the 30s tonight and
then recover into the 50s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Cooler air will persist in the wake of the system for a few days
as deep upper level troughing remains across the central and
northern plains. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s can be expected
on Tuesday with mid to near 40s Wednesday and Thursday. A
reinforcing cold front will arrive Thursday night with highs in
the lower 40s on Friday. Upper level troughing is expected to
develop across the western and southwestern United States by late
next week. There is considerable uncertainty with how this system
will evolve, but some precipitation, probably in the form of rain,
can`t be ruled out by December 5th or 6th. Low level air will be
cool, but perhaps not cold enough for snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Strong south winds will become strong southerly as a cold front
sweeps across western Kansas this afternoon. Wind gusts could
reach up to 55 mph with some blowing dust at KGCK by 21z and
possibly KDDC by 22z. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
through 22z and strong wind gusts could also be associated with
these. Winds will decrease by 00z with the loss of daytime
heating. Outside of the areas of blowing dust and thunderstorms,
VFR conditions can be expected.


Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Critical fire weather conditions are still expected this
afternoon and a red flag warning is still in effect. It`s
uncertain whether the eastern edge of the warning will meet
criteria or not since the dry air may only last for a couple of
hours before it gets dark. If any fires develop, extreme fire
behavior would be possible even if relative humidity values do
not quite meet the 15% threshold, and we still think that
humidity values in the 14-18% range will occur along with the wind
gusts to 50 or 55 mph. Fire managers and crews in the fields
should monitor for any ignitions this afternoon; extreme fire
behavior is possible.


DDC  70  34  59  29 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  66  32  57  27 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  63  32  55  28 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  68  32  58  27 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  65  33  57  30 /  40  10   0   0
P28  63  37  62  33 /  30  20   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for



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