Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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263
FXUS63 KDDC 211100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A vortmax will swing through the region this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across SE Colorado and into far SW Kansas in association
with this feature. There could be some marginally severe storms, but
overall chances are fairly low given the lack of moisture in the BL.
Marginal wind and hail looks to be the main threats. Other than far
SW Kansas, most of the forecast district will remain dry today. Highs
today will peak in the lower 70s. A light southwesterly wind is expected
to eventually develop later today. Overall, a nice late Spring day
across SW Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A better chance of precip is possible on Monday. Both the global and
mesoscale models have a smattering of QPF across the forecast district.
The best lift, however, is forecast across the southern zones, so have
the highest pops in this region. Severe weather looks unlikely, although
there could be marginal wind and hail threats on Monday. The chance
pops look good for now, given the dearth of moisture in the BL. Beyond
Monday, a north to northwest flow aloft will continue with a weak sfc
pressure gradient across Kansas. Highs should be a little cooler Tuesday
compared to Monday (60s vs 70s) as CAA develops with the above mentioned
northerly flow. Tranquil weather and a dry forecast will dominate during
this period. Late next week, temperatures will warm up to seasonal
levels as WAA strengthens. There maybe a better shot at precip next
weekend, but confidence is pretty low attm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR expected to prevail through this TAF period. Broken to
overcast mid layer cloud decks will be common. After 21z,
scattered thunderstorms are expected west of GCK/DDC, with
LBL having the highest potential for convection impacting the
airport around 00z Mon. Thunderstorms may produce gusty erractic
outflow winds near EHA/LBL this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue during the 00-12z Mon
timeframe. Low confidence on exact timing at airports, so included
VCSH/VCTS/CB for now. Outside of convection, winds will be light
during this TAF period, SW at 5-15 kts after 15z, then backing
to SE this evening. Consensus of short term models shows MVFR
stratus cigs returning to GCK/DDC/LBL around 12z Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  52  71  48 /  20  40  40  40
GCK  72  49  71  47 /  20  40  30  30
EHA  75  50  70  47 /  40  50  30  40
LBL  75  51  71  48 /  30  50  50  40
HYS  72  51  72  47 /  10  30  30  40
P28  75  54  72  51 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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