Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131807
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

An upper level trough was located over the upper Midwest
with west-northwesterly flow at mid to upper levels over
the high plains. A component of the mid level flow across the
Rockies was resulting in south to southeast winds
transporting high dewpoints into western Kansas. A high level
jet streak was located through western Kansas with 60 kt core.
This pattern will persist though tonight. An upper level trough
will develop over the western United States Monday and then slowly
move across the plains by Thursday in a weakened state. Ahead of
this trough, ample low level moisture will be in place and an
upper level jet will be situated across western Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pattern recognition alone would indicate a good chance of
thunderstorms this evening across western Kansas. The various
mesoscale model solutions were highly variable but some of them
develop convection in Colorado and then grow it upscale into an
MCS late this evening. 0-6 km bulk shear approaching 40 kts along
with the strong veering profile and CAPE values approaching 3000
j/kg across far western Kansas indicate supercell structures
possible at the onset before growth upscale. If initiation occurs
well into Colorado, it`s possible that the storms could organize
into a cluster before reaching western Kansas, limiting hail size
in favor of a larger scale wind threat. With sunshine developing
today, temperatures should easily rise into the lower to mid 80s
and then fall back into the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The aforementioned, approaching upper level trough and upper
level jet streak along with abundant low level moisture will set
the stage for daily thunderstorm activity, some severe, across
the high plains region through Thursday. Temperatures should be
near or slightly below climatological averages through the period
with mainly 80s for highs and lows in the 60s. A drying trend
will commence by the weekend with a slow warming trend as upper
level ridging slow builds toward the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Ceilings have improved across the TAF sites as BL mixing has
maximized. Redevelopment is not forecast as the winds return to a
southerly flow, including above the ground layer where a LLJ is
shown to develop this evening. The LLJ will likely feed any
widely scattered convection ongoing this afternoon, keeping it
ongoing anywhere from nw KS/east central Colorado into the
terminal vicinities. beginning 00-01Z through as late as 08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  64  87  67 /  10  20  10  30
GCK  83  63  87  66 /  10  20  10  20
EHA  84  63  86  64 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  84  64  87  67 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  84  64  88  68 /  10  20  10  20
P28  83  66  87  70 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...MR



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