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000
FXUS63 KDDC 030041
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A PV anomaly evident in the water vapor imagery will swing through
the panhandles into western Oklahoma late this afternoon and this
evening. Disorganized radar reflectivity now over southeast Colorado
associated with the anomaly will likely develop into a more
organized band as is moves into southwest Kansas. This is well
supported in the various WRF (NMM and ARW) model runs between now
and around 03 UTC. As a result, given much higher snow ratio values
with the colder incoming air aloft, additional snow of at least an
inch to more locally banded 2 or 3 inches are possible between
around 4 and 7 pm, oriented west to east. Winds will also be weakening
with time, especially the gusts which could lead to better
possibility of packed snow on roads. As a result we will extend the
winter weather advisory for the area south of highway K-96 through
mid evening.

Temperatures could be the coldest of the season overnight as skies
clear between 3 and 7 am, with weakening winds to nearly light
under a surface ridge. We`ve undercut the Bias corrected WRF for
Monday morning`s low temperatures which places the coldest
temperatures from around Dodge City to Hays. Temperatures were
trending colder as well with highs on Monday only struggling to
around 20 degrees in central Kansas, generally east of highway
283.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Medium range models indicate a zonal flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains early in the period Tuesday. Meanwhile, an
upper level shortwave will push southeast across the Northern
Rockies into the Western High Plains Wednesday bringing the
possibility for precip to the plains of Nebraska and western Kansas.
Although the flow aloft is expected to remain generally weak, enough
forcing will be present as an attendant cold front pushes through
to support some precip development across portions of western and
central Kansas. A lack of instability will likely favor just light
rain initially with an outside chance for snow mixed later if
temperatures cool down enough in the lower/mid levels. Drier
conditions are then expected across western Kansas through Friday
as weak upper level ridging moves out of the Intermountain West
into the Western High Plains.

Warmer temperatures are likely Tuesday as a prevailing low level
southerly flow continues to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures climbing well above 5C. Even with lingering snowpack,
expect highs up into the upper 30s(F) and 40s(F) across central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon with mid to upper 50s(F) likely in far
southwest Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are then likely
through the end of the week as weak upper level ridging moves
out of the Rockies into the Western High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Through about 03-04Z, light to occasionally moderate snow will
affect mainly DDC with IFR (and perhaps briefly LIFR) flight
category. GCK and HYS will be clearing out much faster with MVFR
ceilings starting to scatter out by 02-03Z time frame. Thereafter,
VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the night with winds
diminishing to 6 knots or less. Winds will pick back up to around
12 knots or so by midday Monday as the surface high departs the
western Kansas region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  -9  22  13  45 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  -7  25  16  54 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  -1  43  23  57 /  60   0   0   0
LBL  -7  33  18  51 /  60   0   0   0
HYS -10  19  10  44 /  40   0   0   0
P28  -6  20  10  40 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
FOR KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid