Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Models are in good agreement with moving a weak cold front across
west central and north central Kansas this morning. This surface
boundary will then become stationary across southwest and north
central Kansas by the early afternoon. A warm 850mb thermal ridge
axis was located ahead of this surface boundary at 00z Sunday and
both the NAM and GFS indicated a +1 to +2C 24 hour 850 temperature
change will occur from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday ahead of this
frontal boundary, mainly across south central Kansas. Northwest of
this frontal boundary the 850mb temperatures cool roughly 2 to 3C
from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday. Based on this expected trend and
where this surface boundary will be located late today will favor
highs at or a degree or two warmer than yesterday southeast of this
front. Highs today northwest of this front will be slightly cooler
and generally will be in the lower 90s.

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late day/early
evening near and east of the surface boundary given improving
moisture and afternoon instability. After 00z Monday an upper
level jet will move out of the Rockies and across western Nebraska
which will place west central and north central Kansas near the
right entrance region of the upper level jet by 06z. As the upper
level dynamics improves across northern Kansas early tonight the
850mb winds from the NAM and GFS both suggested a +40kt low level
jet will be developing across western Kansas. Based on where the
nose of the low level jet will be located between 06z and 12z
Monday along with upslope flow across northeast Colorado/northwest
Kansas, location of the +12c to +14c 700mb temperature gradient,
and a 925mb to 850mb thta-e ridge axis across northern Kansas
overnight will continue to favor increasing chances of convection
across north central Kansas during the overnight period as evening
thunderstorms over south central Kansas tapers off.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Monday looks to be warm once again with temperatures reaching into
the mid to upper 90s with a few 100s across south central Kansas. A
few lingering showers will be possible across central and west
central Kansas in the morning with partly cloudy skies expected by
the afternoon. This will be short lived as an upper level shortwave
moves out from Colorado and into the Central High Plains Monday
night increasing cloudiness across the CWA. A chance of
thunderstorms will exist from late afternoon into the overnight
period, mainly across northern Kansas as well as central and west
central Kansas. Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings look to range from
the mid 60s across the KS/CO border to lower 70s across south
central Kansas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be digging into
the Pacific northwest Monday before weakening into a opened
shortwave and ejecting eastward across the Rockies Tuesday then into
the Central Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model runs have
this system moving slightly slower than previous as well as tracking
a little farther north. Nevertheless, thunderstorms look favorable
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon as this system
approaches and moves across Nebraska. The best chances of
precipitation will be across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor
with lesser chances the farther south you go. A few lingering
showers may be possible across south central Kansas Thursday night,
otherwise expect decreasing cloudiness. Highs during this timeframe
look to decrease from the 90s Tuesday to 80s Wednesday through
Friday. Lows look to be in the 60s to lower 70s Wednesday morning
with 60s expected into this weekend. The remainder of the forecast
period looks dry as an upper level ridge builds across the western
United States. Skies will be mostly clear during this timeframe with
highs rebounding into the 90s by Saturday. Lows will remain in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A cold front will move into western and north central Kansas this
morning where it will become nearly stationary during the
afternoon hours. Based on 03z verification of this surface
boundary the NAM and HRRR had a decent handle with the movement of
this front so stay close to timing of frontal passage/wind shift
as it moves across the GCK and HYS areas late this morning. At
this time it appears this boundary will stay just west of DDC so
south/southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue at DDC
through Sunday evening. BUFR soundings and HRRR indicating cloud
bases across western Kansas will be mainly at or above the 10000ft
AGL level tonight and Sunday so VFR conditions can be expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  98  71 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  94  67  97  70 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  94  66  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  97  67  97  70 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  95  67  97  70 /  10  20  30  40
P28 100  73 100  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






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