Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101940
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Sky has cleared behind this morning`s shortwave, but cirrus is
already increasing again from the south and west. Gusty NW winds
behind the shortwave as of midday will weaken very rapidly this
afternoon and become more SW. Downslope surface winds components
will ensure well above normal temperatures this afternoon.

Tonight...Increasing high clouds and again mild, for January
standards. Another impressive low level jet is expected, with
12z NAM increasing SWly 850 mb winds to 50-60 kts. This will keep
south wind elevated overnight, with gusts of 25-30 mph, despite
the nocturnal timing. Between the cirrus and the mixed boundary
layer, temperatures will again remain well above normal tonight,
holding in the 30s to lower 40s for most locations.

Wednesday...Mild and dry. A dry backdoor cold front will slip into
the NE zones during the afternoon hours. Warmed up temperatures
considerably south of this advancing boundary, with breezy
downslope components and prefrontal compression allowing for
unseasonably warm temperatures. Expecting 60s easily across the
southern 1/2 of the CWA. with mid 60s at Dodge City. We may be even
warmer than this, with 12z MAV cranking out low to mid 70s along the
Oklahoma border. Much cooler of course across the NE zones, where
the NE wind shift will arrive first, with Trego and Ellis counties
remaining in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

...Confidence increasing that a major winter storm will impact
SW KS this weekend...significant ice storm is possible...

Thursday...Much cooler, but really just back to normal for
January. NE winds will usher in the cold air advection, as a
strong surface high builds into the northern plains. NE zones near
Hays will struggle to get to freezing, while Morton county should
still approach 50. Dry weather continues on Thursday.

Friday...Colder. Cold surface high pressure ridging looks to
persist, with continued NE winds and cold air advection emanating
from strong surface high near Wisconsin. GFS is markedly colder
with this evolution, and was followed in the grids (afternoon
temperatures in the 20s). Also contributing to the cold will be
increasing and lowering cloud ceilings. A light wintry mix of
freezing rain/sleet/snow is expected to begin Friday afternoon as
warm air advection aloft begins ahead of strong upper low near
San Diego.

Saturday and Sunday...Becoming pretty obvious that a major winter
storm will deliver impacts to SW KS. Today`s model runs have
slowed down the progression of the incoming storm, a common
correction with deep closed lows approaching from the Desert SW.
As such, pop grids were realigned to favor Sunday, and it now
appears the greatest impacts will occur late Saturday through
early Monday. 12z ECMWF spreads widespread WAA-induced wintry mix
into the southern zones through Saturday afternoon. This
precipitation only intensifies through Sunday morning, as the
upper low intensifies and approaches El Paso. Strong low remains
closed, and assumes a negative tilt, as it slowly ejects into
eastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon. Dynamic lift across SW KS
will be intense, with strong diffluence aloft, being fed by
tremendous moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread
heavy precipitation will be the result, as shown by all the medium
range models. Superblend pops are in the likely category, and
those will suffice for now, but the last 2 MEX runs have had pops
in the 90-100% range, and that is where we are heading. Model
generated QPF fields are impressive, ranging on ECMWF from 1.5
inch NW to 2.5 inch SE. So, much needed moisture is on its way.
The million dollar question is what form all of this precipitation
will take, and right now it looks like a big mess, with widespread
freezing rain and sleet, with snow across the NW zones. In areas
where this amount of QPF can fall in a sustained freezing rain
thermal profile, a crippling ice storm may occur. It is (way) too
early to determine exactly where this will occur in Kansas, and
will have everything to do with how the shallow arctic air at the
surface behaves in the face of the tremendous warm/moist advection
aloft. About 4-5 days out, the main calling card from this system,
it appears, will be ice. Residents are urged to prepare for a
possible ice storm centered around Sunday, with power outages
possible. Major travel impacts are possible.

Precipitation should wane on Monday morning, as strong 546 dm
upper low enters the western CWA, and dryslot pushes in from the
south. The ice event is expected to end as light snow for most
zones Sunday night/Monday before ending.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

VFR through the TAF forecast period. Gusty NW winds at midday will
rapidly weaken this afternoon and back to SW near 10 kts. Another
impressive low level jet expected 00-09z Wed, with SW 850 mb winds
increasing to 50-60 kts. Included LLWS as appropriate in the TAFs.
This will also keep southerly surface winds elevated overnight,
gusting near 25 kts. Forecast soundings indicate high clouds will
increase overnight. Just after this TAF period, a dry backdoor
cold front will bring a NE wind shift to HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  37  66  21 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  34  66  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  63  36  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  63  37  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  55  36  47  15 /  10   0   0   0
P28  65  39  68  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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