Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230855
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
355 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A cold front is advancing across central NE into northern KS, which
will reach the central sections of our forecast area mid morning.
Not seeing significant indications any instability will be realized
once this front arrives in our area, and by late morning, the
surface winds begin to veer and remain light northeasterly until
late day.

The main convective threat will be supercells either initiating or
moving north out of Oklahoma focused within the main higher
moisture/surface dew point axis ahead of the surface dryline.
However this may become complicated by the true southward extent of
the aforementioned cold front position.  Another area of interest
will be behind the washed out cold front in the increasingly
easterly upslope surface flow along the KS/CO line where the NAM is
insistent on isolated supercell development with potential for giant
hail, and much less of a tornado threat. Threat ares may need to be
adjusted later today as the convective models refine the best
locations for initiation. Still, low to upper 80s look agreed upon
by numerical models for this aftenroon`s highs

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little changes in the overall synoptic pattern in the coming days.
The models have been consistent will keeping Wednesday the likeliest
day to be dry and quite (no convection at least), however the rest
of the forecast looks fairly active with at least peak heating
dryline storms and waves exiting the the quasi-stationary western
upper trough. The warming trend will continue into mid week with
90s almost a certainty by wednesday. More clouds and precipitationmay
cool temperatures by late week with models showing a strong
shortwave into the plains. Overnight lows remain somewhat mild in
the mid to upper 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Breezy southerly winds will taper off again during the
morning as a cold front moves into the region , bring winds light
and variable in vicinity of the boundary for a few hours from near
Hays to near Dodge around 12 UTC. The NAM has been tossed aside in
terms of it`s ceilings forecast overnight as it has been to
aggressive recently. We hare carrying MVFR ceilings in line with the
gfs mos through the peak cool period of the overnight. Severe storms
will again develop Monday late afternoon, however timing any
threats at the terminals is of low confidence.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  60  87  61 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  81  55  87  57 /  20  40  10  10
EHA  84  52  88  55 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  84  56  90  56 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  78  61  84  63 /  20  30  20  20
P28  79  65  86  67 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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