Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040528
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOCATED OVER KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT OVER MONTANA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A +7 TO +10C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE TO 850MB RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AT THE SURFACE AT 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  71  83 /  40  10  50  60
GCK  69  98  70  80 /  40  20  50  50
EHA  68  97  67  80 /  10  20  40  40
LBL  69  97  70  83 /  30  10  40  50
HYS  70  98  71  82 /  30  20  60  50
P28  70  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT


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