Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 231700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Cold front clearing the SE zones early this morning, accompanied
by a few light showers and a NWly wind shift. Surface high
(1027 mb per 00z NAM) builds into the Colorado Rockies through
sunrise, ensuring a NW wind will continue overnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy, windy and cool. Quite uncharacteristic of
late May in SW Kansas, with thunderstorm chances at zero and
temperatures running about 15 degrees below normal. Upper low in
northern Minnesota currently will drop due south into Iowa today,
enhancing the NW flow, at the surface and aloft, over SW KS.
Followed the strongest wind guidance, with NW wind gusts of
30-35 mph expected. All models also show broken/overcast mid layer
cloud decks near 7k ft through the afternoon. A few passing light
rain showers (sprinkles) are also likely. Between the clouds and
NWly cool advection, temperatures will struggle today into the
mid 60s. NW winds and limited sunshine will add a decided chill to
the air.

Tonight...Diminishing cloud cover and NW winds expected after
sunset, allowing for radiational cooling to become efficient
through Wednesday morning. Another chilly morning Wednesday, with
lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (again about 15 degrees below
normal). Across the far NW and NE zones Wednesday morning,
included patchy frost in the grids where upper 30s are forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Wednesday...A spectacular spring day, with full sun, light winds
and near room temperatures in the afternoon. Meridional flow over
North America, with Kansas sandwiched between a strong closed low
near St. Louis and a ridge axis over the southern Rockies.

Thursday...The warmest day of this forecast. Ridge axis phases
into eastern Kansas in the afternoon, with thermal ridge warming
temperatures nicely. With a lack of downslope, along with wet
soils and vegetation, temperatures will be held in check, in the
low to mid 80s. Models hint at a thunderstorm complex impacting
at least NW KS Thursday evening, and pops will favor the northern
zones to cover this possibility.

Friday...A few degrees cooler (near normal) under more of a zonal
flow aloft. Most of Friday will be dry, but once again convective
potential will be present by evening. A weak shortwave in the flow
aloft is expected to trigger thunderstorms late in the day. Models
agree on this scenario, but disagree on placement. 00z ECMWF
argues for SW KS, while 00z GFS depicts a strong MCS affecting
northern Kansas/southern Nebraska Friday night. Scattered pops
will suffice in the grids for now.

Saturday...A few degrees cooler behind a weak cold front (and
possible outflow boundary from Friday night`s MCS).  Model
consensus suggests upslope flow on the higher terrain will incite
convection Saturday afternoon, and then subsequently move SE into
SW KS Saturday evening. As such, pops will favor the western
zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Daytime heating will bring gusty north winds to central and southwest
Kansas this afternoon. Scattered light rainshowers are also expected
to develop as weak instability develops. Will carry a period of VCSH
through the afternoon hours but showers, along with gusty winds, should
be diminishing by around 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  41  71  50 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  65  40  74  49 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  64  43  78  51 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  66  41  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  64  39  68  49 /  20  10   0   0
P28  68  45  71  50 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard



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