Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 021000
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
...Updated for short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
A shortwave trough will pass across the southern plains today and
tonight. Ahead of this feature, a mid level deformation zone will
set up across southwest Kansas today and persist into early this
evening while slowly shifting eastward. Model soundings show a
saturated warm layer around -2C above the very cold low levels.
Thus, very high mixing ratios will be present at mid levels, with
moist neural lapse rates above that level. This could lead to
locally high snowfall rates. Although widespread snowfall is
expected, there may be a narrow band of intense snowfall for a few
hours, most likely south and southeast of Dodge City. However, it
is hard to pin this down until the band actually sets up. We will
continue the winter weather advisory, with highest snow amounts of
4-6 inches along the Oklahoma border.
After the upper trough passes tonight, surface high pressure will
build in western Kansas by 6 am Monday. Light winds along with fresh
snow cover and temperatures starting out around 3F in the afternoon
will lead to ideal conditions for breaking a record low in Dodge
City. The previous record low is -12F set in 1960.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
High pressure at the surface will move from the Central Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday allowing a
south/southeast flow to return to western Kansas during the day.
Based on the 00z model soundings, 925mb temperatures at 00z
Tuesday, and possible snow cover across south central Kansas and
portions of southwest Kansas have decided to undercut guidance for
highs on Monday. In areas where snow cover is expected to be in
excess of 2 inches favored highs mainly from 18 to near 25 while
elsewhere trended warmer with highs around 32.
The southerly winds will increase slightly overnight as a trough
of low pressure at the surface begins to deepen along the lee of
the Rockies. This deepening trough of low pressure at the surface
will be in response to backing winds ahead of an approaching short
wave trough. Based on the 24 hour temperature trends at the 925mb
and 850mb levels between 00z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the
potential exists for highs on Tuesday to rebound back well into
the 50s, however snow cover will limit this warmup. At this time
will trend towards the warmer model soundings temperatures for
highs across far western Kansas where less snowfall is expected on
Sunday. East and southeast of Dodge City where snow cover is
expected to still be present undercut the cooler MET/MAV guidance
by several degrees for highs.
Precipitation chances will improve from late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as an upper level trough crosses the Central High
Plains. Precipitation type currently is somewhat unclear given
that models differ in the amount of cooling that will occur in the
lower levels behind a cold front that will cross western Kansas
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Given the low confidence in
temperature profiles late Tuesday into early Wednesday will keep
precipitation type as only rain or snow.
Warmer temperatures can then be expected for the last two days of
the work week, as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Central
Plains and downslope flow improves. Friday temperatures will be
slightly cooler than those on Thursday due a frontal passage
sometime during the day. At this time the highs on Thursday will
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s while the highs on Friday will
be in the mid 50s to around 60.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MVFR CIGS will persist overnight given persistent moist, upslope
flow and weak isentropic lift. Some light snow based at very low
levels may intermittently reduce visibilities to 1-3 miles.
After 15z Sunday, snow is expected to develop at KDDC as an upper
level storm system approaches. Visibilities could drop to 1 mile
in the heaviest snow.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 3 -18 25 13 / 100 80 0 0
GCK 3 -13 28 16 / 90 80 0 0
EHA 5 -5 37 23 / 90 70 0 0
LBL 3 -11 29 18 / 100 80 0 0
HYS 4 -11 25 10 / 80 60 0 0
P28 5 -11 19 10 / 100 80 0 0
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-
WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ066-