Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 150003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVE FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS LOCATED AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY BASED
ON THE CLEARING THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL FOCUS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF
A DODGE CITY TO STAFFORD LINE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO AM UNABLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT
CROSSES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TONIGHT...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS
SURFACE LOW PASSES A NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE AND COOL AS THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND BASED ON INCREASING CLOUDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE LATEST COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEST/NORTHWEST OF THIS UPPER LOW NEAR AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS, HOWEVER BASED ON LATEST
MODEL RUNS THIS AREA OF FORCING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT MAINLY LIQUID EARLY WITH A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY, WARMER
MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WEST OF A HAYS TO GARDEN CITY LINE AT LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNT POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SCOTT, KEARNY AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES.

PRECIPITATION WILL END IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY AND
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY ERODING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SUN THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL MIXING POTENTIAL.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST FAVORED HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE
LATEST MET/MAV SUGGESTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
BUT WILL NOT PERSIST LONG AS THE NEXT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND  SOUTHERN  HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION RELEGATING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER BY6 THURSDAY ANS WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS , PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO BEGIN, BUT AS LIKELY, SNOW
BECOMES A POSSIBILITY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. AN 850 MB COLD
FRONT IS MODELED TO INVADE THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER TO ABOVE 700 MB AND -8 DEGREES C, SNOW IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORTED AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE LOW END OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, BUT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE
PLAUSIBLE WITH THE PATTERN.  THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PART OF THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HANDLE THE TRACK MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF DIGS THE WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT/FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ZONE REMAINS TO FAR SOUTH THE
AFFECT EVEN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND MORE
WOUND UP IN THE MID LEVELS, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SNOW
AROUND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED IN
THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGCK/KDDC THROUGH 08Z AND KHYS
THROUGH 13Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  24  41 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  29  45  20  42 /  60  10   0   0
EHA  28  48  25  47 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  29  48  26  44 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  32  39  23  38 /  60  30   0   0
P28  36  48  27  43 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.