Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH JUST A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA APPROACHING KLBB OR
KPVW LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED T-STORM
MENTION THROUGH 06 UTC FOR OUR COUNTIES ON THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. AT 950 PM...ONE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM LEA COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IN CURRY COUNTY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO WESTERN PARMER COUNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE STILL EXPECT ALL THE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DIE-OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS ACROSS THE REGION HAS
STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS AND IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WATER VAPOR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
STARTING TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AS SHOWN IN
THE HRRR...RAP...AND TTU-WRF WHICH HAS ALSO HELPED TO GET THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO A CONVECTIVE STATE ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE.  DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET OUT
WEST.  THERE MAY BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT DRY AND MIXED SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS ANY STORMS WILL
BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED IN TIME AND COVER A SMALL AREA.  THE UPSIDE IS
THAT SOME LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

AFTER ANOTHER MILD START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY EVEN AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO
NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WE ALSO SHOULD SEE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CLOSE TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THIS MEANS THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
VARY A BIT MORE TOMORROW IN WHERE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
COMPARED TO WHAT THEY SHOWED FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY DECENT CONSENSUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
CONFINING BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH HAS BEEN A PRETTY CONSISTENT
UPSLOPE FEATURE RECENTLY WITH CENTER OF RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR
EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY AT TIMES WITH
REGARD TO FORCING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION.

THURSDAY ECMWF/SREF GUIDANCE POSITIONS A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF STATES TO A SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE NAM/GFS INDICATE SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ANY HINTS OF A BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
DIFFICULT TO SEE PLAUSIBILITY IN ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS GIVEN LACK OF
CONTINUITY IN BOUNDARY DEPICTION AS IT EXTENDS FROM GULF STATES THUS
CONTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NW ZONES IN WEAK SE UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW. BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS EXPANDING BACK TOWARD
NORTHWEST DETAILS GET EVEN MURKIER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
FORCING PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE SIGNALS OF CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THERE WERE
ANY HIGHER POPS MENTIONED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...AS
FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY WAS RUNNING A TAD
ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH TODAYS 12Z RUN INCHING BACK MORE
TOWARD GUIDANCE BUT DID KNOCK DOWN 1 OR 2 DEGREES ON DAYS WHEN
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...FOR WHATS ITS WORTH MODELS
CONVERGE BACK TO DECENT CONSENSUS A WEEK FROM NOW WITH RIDGE CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER WEST TEXAS YET AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  68  95  67 /  20  10  10  40
TULIA         97  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     97  70  96  70 /  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       97  72  96  72 /  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY  101  70  94  70 /  10  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    98  71  97  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS    100  75 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          99  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    104  76 100  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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