Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190441
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will steadily lower to IFR at all terminals in the
wake of current SHRA and TS. Such is the case at Hobbs and
Seminole where decks are currently around 400 feet. Precip is on
track to end at LBB and PVW around 2AM and CDS closer to 5AM.
Even with ceilings slowly rising to MVFR by midday, there is high
confidence that VFR should evade the sites thru 20/00Z under
continued moist easterly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated to refine POPs through tonight based on observed satellite
and radar trends. At 01Z, a pocket of decent cloud top cooling
was blossoming S-SW of Clovis coincident with a linear complex of
storms from Dora to north of Tatum. This region is benefiting from
the leading edge of height falls that will continue overspreading
the CWA tonight. Present indications are that widespread showers
and storms will target the northern half of the CWA with a more
reduced coverage elsewhere. Recent runs of the HRRR are rather
consistent with this theme which seems logical using extrapolation
from satellite and radar mosaics. Elevated CAPE of only a few
hundred J/kg is not as robust as last night, but degree of forcing
could still garner some small hail.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93



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