Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180911
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this
morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to
Clarendon line as of 345 am. Current forward speed of the front
will have it through Lubbock between 5 and 6 am and through the
southern Rolling Plains between 8 and 9 am. Tight pressure
gradient behind the front will result in sustained speeds of
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 through the first part of the
morning. As the surface high builds into the region, expect speeds
to drop off through the afternoon and evening hours. How cool we
will be behind the front remains a bit uncertain as guidance
temperatures have once again come in lower than previous runs.
There is a potential for low clouds to arrive behind the front
which would also help to keep temperatures on the cool side by
offsetting some insolation early in the day.

Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights
start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the
Desert Southwest. Highs will reach the century mark once again by
Wednesday and potentially remain there through Friday. The
uncertainty revolves around the potential for a tropical system to
push through the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall sometime later
this week. Models are all over the place with this feature but the
further west it is forecast to make landfall would mean increasing
clouds and decreasing heights which will cool us down. If that
doesn`t do the trick, another cold front arriving Saturday will
definitely help to bring temps down below normal for next weekend.
Models keep this front dry as well but a few do break out some
isolated coverage as early as Thursday. Will keep a dry forecast
for now as location and timing remain highly uncertain at this
time.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/14



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