Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 051125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA AND
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP.  AND WARM IS
PROBABLY A GOOD DESCRIPTION FOR IT WITH HIGHS UP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE JUST A TAD STRONGER
THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
THE FLOW REGIME COMES BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AFFECTING WEST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITHIN THAT CONSENSUS
IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS THE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A SUBSEQUENT SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE CLOSED LOW BEING PROGGED TO SLOW AND SHIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY
BROUGHT CHANGES IN THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AS THE JETMAX PIVOTS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PUSHING THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST
SATURDAY AND FURTHER LIMITING OF INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR CWA AS
CAPPING BECOMES MORE STOUT. OVERALL DIDNT CHANGE MUCH IN TERMS OF
TSTORM COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IMPROVES ENOUGH LATER
SATURDAY TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS
THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE ON THE CAPROCK HAS CERTAINLY LESSENED AND PUSHED FARTHER
EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND I20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AS IT RETREATS WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST ON THE CAPROCK SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE BREEZY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THAT BROUGHT HIGHS UP A TICK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MILD TEMPS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK HOLDING OFF COOLER TEMPS
FROM A WAKE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM REACHING OUR LATITUDE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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