Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF KCDS HAVE
LIFTED BACK NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING. IF SO...GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDINGS...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS TO MUCH EXTENT
YET...ALTHOUGH WE DID BRING A WIND SHIFT INTO KCDS BY 03Z AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR VARIABLE WINDS JUST BEFORE THAT. WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. KLBB APPEARS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THIS EVENING TO
NOT BE THREATENED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH A NEW SURGE
TO THE SOUTH WAS RECENTLY OCCURRING JUST NORTHEAST OF KCDS.
SOLUTIONS ALSO REMAIN MIXED ABOUT EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL MOVE BACK
SOUTH TO NEAR KLBB AS WELL. WE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KCDS BUT
OPT TO STUDY FURTHER FOR KLBB BEFORE ADDING EXPLICIT THUNDER
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN THE
ZONE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER REMAINS NON-EXISTENT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY WHILE THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA. EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVENTUAL PROPAGATION ALONG THE
OUTFLOWS WORKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL STABILITY WILL DOMINATE WITH SOME REMNANT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE RIDGING HELPING TO PUSH THE
BOUNDARY DEEPER ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MON PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
BE UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY. INCREASED FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FIRST LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
HELP INCREASE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY. PRIMARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL BE
BEYOND SHORT TERM PERIOD BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
TODAY MAY HELP FOCUS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR TEMPS HAVE PLAYED
PERSISTENCE AND KEPT MID-UPPER 90S AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE
ACROSS THE PNHDL HOWEVER THIS COULD BE TOO WARM ANYWHERE WHERE
AFTERNOON STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANG ON.

LONG TERM...
SERIES OF FRONTS HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH SEVERAL GOOD OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. FALLING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER ENERGY THAT WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS THE REGION IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL FEATURES INTO
THURSDAY. FIRST FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY WITH
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK. THIS IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS LATE...WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD BACK WEST TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AND FEED NEW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP
MOISTURE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRING WITH IT SOME DECENT MID
SUMMER UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE IN THIS TIME FRAME...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES/LARGER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE/NRN ROLLING PLAINS REGION...
PERHAPS BACK TOWARD THE SC PANHANDLE.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WEST TEXAS IS LIKELY TO BE IN SUBSIDENT REGIME AS UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES EAST. UPPER RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL BE RATHER COOL TOWARD
MID WEEK WITH 70S/80S EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
COOLING RAINS. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  63  86  62 /  20  30  50  50  60
TULIA         66  92  64  81  64 /  20  30  50  50  70
PLAINVIEW     66  92  65  83  65 /  10  20  40  50  60
LEVELLAND     67  93  65  89  66 /   0  20  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       70  94  68  87  68 /   0  20  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   65  93  66  90  67 /   0  10  30  40  40
BROWNFIELD    66  95  65  89  67 /   0  20  30  40  50
CHILDRESS     73  96  70  85  68 /  20  30  60  40  70
SPUR          70  96  68  87  68 /   0  20  40  40  50
ASPERMONT     75  99  71  92  71 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




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