Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
BIGGEST QUESTION THIS ITERATION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS
KCDS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE CARRIED VCTS AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
KLBB AND KPVW COULD BE AFFECTED BY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER AND NO MENTION WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS ATTM. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WITH ODDS OF A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT FAIRLY LOW.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY A BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ML CAPES
GENERALLY 1-2 KJ/KG. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH THIS
EVENING. SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA ORIGINATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ERN NM LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH AND LIKELY WEAKENING
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...STILL COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY MAINLY
EAST...BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPS NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND SEASONAL AVERAGES. JAMES

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE RIDGE EXTEND OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT
BIT. FRONTAL TIMING IN THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS AND INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED OVER THE
REGION AS WELL SO THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW LONG PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT STARTS TO MIX OUT AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TUESDAY AND THE GFS WITH ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY THANKS TO THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MAJOR
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT EXPANDING THE RIDGE AS
STRONGLY AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. INSTEAD...A SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND NUDGES THE RIDGE
SOUTH A BIT AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO BEND MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF THIS
POSSIBILITY SO LEFT THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  88  65  91 /  40  10  10  10
TULIA         66  89  67  91 /  40  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  88  67  90 /  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  89  67  92 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  90  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  89  66  92 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  90  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
SPUR          69  91  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.