Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 041930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07



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