Area Forecast Discussion
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081
FXUS64 KLUB 271718
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR through the rest of today and much of the overnight period.
However, toward sunrise, low stratus is expected to overspread
the region with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected. The low level jet
is expected to strengthen tonight and provide for the risk of
LLWS. Some -RA may accompany the stratus. Thunderstorm activity
may be possible at KLBB/KPVW mainly after 12Z.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Another relatively down day in terms of weather will occur today
before things pick up again on Tuesday. Short wave ridging overhead
today will move east tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging will
only deliver a glancing blow to the region but with cooler
temperatures due to easterly winds. Upper level winds will begin to
back tonight in response to an approaching strong upper level trough
currently moving onshore on the west coast. Low level moisture
return will begin early Tuesday morning ahead of this trough. Moist
isentropic ascent Thursday morning will lead to low stratus during
the morning hours with greatest coverage off the caprock.

LONG TERM...
Upper level low pressure digging across the southern Rockies
Tuesday with a more northerly track and thus more veered flow
across our area. Moisture and lift across much of the area early
Tuesday, perhaps even with showers and thunder, will dry
significantly most areas on the Caprock by 00z Wednesday. We have
backed off further on thunder mention areas on the Caprock.

Upper low will slow Tuesday night and may even briefly stall and
wobble over the Panhandle Wednesday before kicking to the east
early Thursday. The surface dryline will punch east Tuesday
afternoon and can`t rule out severe threat as it does. And the
dryline may yet retreat back into the area Tuesday evening as
heights aloft fall and a Pacific cold front moves in from the
west. This will provide still some opportunity for strong or
severe Tuesday night, though again favoring our eastern zones.
Wednesday remains a bit unclear with timing of a front arriving
from the north and perhaps return of low chance of showers. All-
in-all, our area is facing considerably less prospects for
meaningful rainfall from this system, and much of the area may get
little or none.

Following height rises Thursday and an upper ridge passage
Thursday night, heights again will fall with the next progressive
low pressure perhaps taking a similar path as the first system. We
are giving lean at this time to the ECMWF which is further north
and quicker. This supports only low thunder mention over the
weekend at this point. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Veered low level flow is now anticipated Tuesday afternoon for
many areas on the Caprock. Surface low pressure deepening near
Clovis will help ramp wind speeds up, and deep mixing within the
dry sector gives chances for speeds increasing into Red Flag
Criteria range favoring the southwestern South Plains. A Fire
Weather Watch is being issued centered over this area. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for TXZ027-028-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/26



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