Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
535 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Continued VFR at LBB and PVW, but CDS could sneak in a few hours
of MVFR or even IFR after midnight as moist SE winds linger nearby.
Otherwise, west winds of 20 to 25 knots will develop late Thu
morning, lighter at CDS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/


Morning low clouds and fog were stubborn to burn off or dissipate
through the day and a few spots across the Rolling Plains only
recently broke out into mostly cloudy skies.  Weak southwesterly
flow will remain in place across the region with little dry air
advection so another round of low clouds and fog will be likely for
the Rolling Plains up to the edge of the Caprock.  Conditions may
also result in a few localized areas of dense fog but models do not
have enough coverage to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time.
Low clouds and fog will help to keep low temperatures up across the
Rolling Plains while weak southwesterly flow keeps the boundary
layer mixed for the South Plains.

With the slow passage of the storm system currently located over the
western edge of the Central Plains and the next storm system
swinging out across California, expect to see a window of increasing
zonal flow across the forecast area.  This will help to deepen the
lee surface trough across the area which could help to ramp up wind
speeds in the afternoon.  MOS guidance is still suggesting sustained
speeds of 25-30 knots but the band of best mid-level winds looks to
remain just south of the area.  Regardless, it will likely be a
breezy day across the area as wind speeds ramp up late in the
morning through the afternoon.  Westerly wind direction will provide
some downslope warming component so leaned temps towards the warmer
side of guidance.



Short version: Wind all but one day of the forecast period.

Long version: We will continue to see a rather progressive pattern
throughout this forecast period which will lead to multiple windy
days ahead. Overnight Thursday into Friday morning, LLJ winds will
keep winds elevated, mostly on the Caprock, before a trough whips by
to our north during the afternoon, pulling strong westerly winds
across the Panhandle, South and Rolling Plains. Wind Advisory levels
may be reached on the Caprock that afternoon. Unfortunately, winds
will not calm overnight Friday as the LLJ fires back up before the
approach of the next upper level trough. This one may swing far
enough south into our forecast area to bring a slight chance of
rain, however, dry air at the surface combining with strong westerly
winds may put up a good fight against the mid and upper level
moisture trying to reach the ground. This particular trough will
quickly deepen as it shifts eastward, pulling a cold front down
behind it on Sunday. Winds will be elevated as this front pushes
through but then quickly relax late Sunday afternoon. Monday looks
to be our one, wind-free day before the next upper level storm
system shifts across the Central Plains, once again dragging strong
westerly winds across the region for Tuesday.




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