Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281942
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT IS AT OUR DOORSTEP IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN BEING
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A WARMUP AND BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN ON MONDAY AND
STALL AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER
TOGETHER...BUT THE ECMWF IS STILL PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS AROUND OUR NORTHERN BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20
HOBART OK         70  90  70  95 /  60  40  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  74  95 /  50  50  40  20
GAGE OK           66  88  66  93 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  91  73  92 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/14


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