Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 292320
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALL OUR
TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 3000 FT AGL IS
LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT FROM KSPS/KLAW TO KOUN/KOKC. ISOLATED TSRA
MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE CWA WE
WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NAMELY PONCA
CITY AND STILLWATER AREAS...BUT A FREEZE NONETHELESS FARTHER
SOUTH. DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH ARRIVAL OF
MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS ARRIVAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW
THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IS LOW. MODEL BLENDED FORECAST DATA
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WE WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
CLOUD ISSUE AT HAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM FALLING AS LOW AS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. WE WILL
HAVE THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO PREVENT FROST
FORMATION.

CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY CHANGES BEING A
DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECM DPROG/DT SHOWING FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...WITH
THE GFS MOST PRONOUNCED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  80  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  71  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  41  54 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         46  77  48  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/23/23



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.