Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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