Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 260249

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
949 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Overall, going forecast looks good for the most part. However, did
add a mention of patchy fog across parts of northern OK. Lower
clouds have moved out of most of the area this evening although
some high clouds will stream across the area overnight. Winds are
expected to remain fairly light. So with the light winds and
mostly clear skies, some light fog development could be possible
early Sunday morning. Otherwise, another cool/cold night tonight
with lows from the upper 30s to around 50.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 829 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/


Clouds will arrive and gradually lower through the day Sunday over
central Oklahoma to the east of a dryline. Mostly VFR conditions
are expected, but there could be a period mid-day into afternoon
of MVFR ceilings in central Oklahoma. The dryline will bring gusty
southwest winds over western Oklahoma later Sunday and initiate
thunderstorms from afternoon into evening from central then into
eastern Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

Stratus on the back side of the low continues to slowly erode from
west to east this afternoon. Skies will generally clear by sunset
and winds will calm. However, dewpoints should remain mostly in
the 40s so do not expect very cold conditions. Lows should fall
into the upper 30s to upper 40s from north to south respectively
by tomorrow morning.

Severe storm chances appear fairly likely for tomorrow afternoon
and evening across central, northern, and eastern OK. Moisture
return will commence late tonight through tomorrow morning from
the Hill Country northward into western north TX. By late
afternoon, dewpoints will likely climb to near 60 for a few
locations near the Red River. The timing of the mid to upper low
will be advantageous for deep convective development somewhere
near or just west of the I35 corridor during the late afternoon
and early evening hours as instability peaks. Steep mid level
lapse rates will also be present during this time and could
support hail over the size of golf balls. However, it`s still
unclear how much instability/low level moisture will return in
time. Storm coverage also appears questionable based on moisture
profiles, with the highest chances east of I35 after sunset.
Lowered PoPs slightly to reflect this. In addition to large hail
and damaging winds, tornadoes may be possible given largely curved
hodographs, but again the limiting factor will be LCL heights/low
level moisture.

Most of the storms should exit our region to the east after ~ 09Z
tomorrow night as the mid to upper trough moves into NE OK, along
with mid to upper moisture. The next chance of storms will arrive
Tues night with the approach of a closed low. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible with this feature and accompanying
surface low near SW OK/W N TX Tue, and then again Wed across SE
OK. Widespread rainfall should develop through Wed, with QPF
amounts perhaps exceeding 2-3 inches for a few locations. After
Wed night, things will quiet down and temps will return to near
normal through the end of the week.


Oklahoma City OK  44  77  54  69 /   0  40  30   0
Hobart OK         45  80  51  71 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  84  54  75 /   0  20   0   0
Gage OK           41  76  46  70 /   0  20  30   0
Ponca City OK     39  72  52  65 /   0  30  70  10
Durant OK         49  80  61  75 /   0  30  50   0




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