Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220544
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1144 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017


.AVIATION...
A south wind and VFR conditions will prevail through
late Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 859 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Overall, only minor changes to hourly temperatures and dewpoints
based on current ob trends. Winds expected to return to southerly
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

AVIATION...
TAFs 2200/2224...

VFR conditions and a relatively light wind will prevail through
6 pm Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on fire weather, primarily the Extremely
Critical conditions expected on Friday across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

Currently, modest southwesterly flow has continued to gradually
increase across western into northwestern Oklahoma in response to
the slowly building 500mb ridge from the Trans Pecos across the
Panhandles and across Oklahoma. This has resulted in afternoon highs
topping out in the upper 70s across western Oklahoma.

Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions will exist through the
afternoon across western and  This is primarily in response to
temperatures and relative humidities. Winds will be light through
the day as the upper ridge slides east and southeast. Highs will be
unseasonably warm, to say the least, across the region, with highs
pushing mid to upper 80s in western north Texas and far western
Oklahoma, and upper 70s to 80 elsewhere.

Thursday is the most concerning day for fire weather this week.
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will develop across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas, with critical to elevated
conditions as far east as central Oklahoma. The primary concern
exists across northwestern Oklahoma and along and west of the U.S.
183 corridor. This is basically locations west of where the greatest
precipitation fell Sunday night, and the influence of this moisture
can be visualized on 11u-3.9u IR imagery. Strong warm air advection
off the western high plains and down the Llano Estacado will result
in afternoon temperatures pushing the upper 80s to 90 across western
north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, to upper 70s and lower 80s
farther north. Minimum relative humidities will dip into the low to
mid teens for several hours. Winds are shaping up to be big concern
in western Oklahoma and far western north Texas. Sustained winds
will easily reach 20 to 25 mph and gusts will approach 45 mph at
times. This is all being driven by a stout surface low moving off
the eastern Colorado plains, with a decent parent 500mb trough
providing support aloft. Combine the weather with increasing ERC-G
values forecast to go well above the 50th percentile across the
region and extremely critical conditions are favorable. Therefore,
a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday, from mid-morning
through the evening for western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Any fires that develop will spread rapidly out of control. Outdoor
burning is highly discouraged.

Thursday night into Friday morning, a significant wind shift is
expected due to the arrival/passage of the frontal boundary/surface
trough. The wind shift will begin in far northwestern Oklahoma,
around 10 to 11 PM CST and is expected to reach the Red River by
sunrise. Northwest winds will remain breezy behind the boundary
overnight with gusts around 15 to 20 mph.

Friday, breezy northwest winds will persist, with elevated fire
weather conditions persisting.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  81  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           41  83  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         47  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$


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