Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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574
FXUS64 KOUN 180323 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
923 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Minor changes to temperatures tonight and also some adjustments to
rain chances based on current trends and 00Z model data. Increased
rain chances across southern into parts of central Oklahoma for
this evening and overnight, and across western-northwestern
Oklahoma overnight and Wednesday morning. Latest WRF and high res
models keep at least scattered showers going well into tomorrow
morning even though we anticipate rain activity decreasing in both
coverage and intensity as the night progresses. We will keep
isolated thunderstorms mentioned across the Red River Valley.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

AVIATION...
18/00Z TAFs. Shield of light rain and lowering cigs will spread
north and east from northern Texas into southern and central
Oklahoma through the first 6 to 12 hours of the forecast. MVFR
conditions will become widespread after 09-12Z and persist into
tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Determining rain chances through tonight is the main forecast
challenge.

Through tonight, increased rain chances across southwestern
Oklahoma and western Oklahoma. Latest radars indicated light to
moderate rain with even a few thunderstorms moving into western
north Texas as of 250 pm ahead of a mid/upper disturbance over
western Texas/southeastern New Mexico. This activity will
continue to move north and northeast over the next several hours,
and will likely weaken a bit as it moves into a drier and more
stable airmass north of the Red River. Regardless, chances of
getting 0.01" or more tonight across southwestern Oklahoma and
western north Texas appear to be very high and went with rain
chances 60-100% in these areas. Rain coverage is expected to
decrease after midnight as the disturbance lifts northeast.

A few rumbles of thunder may occur near and south of the Red
River where HRRR forecast MUCAPE values approach 200 J/kg through
tonight. No severe storms are expected through tonight due to the
very weak forecast instability.

Model forecast soundings suggested that all precipitation will be
in liquid form, even if it occurs in far northern Oklahoma where
surface temperatures may fall into 33-35F range once precipitation
arrives mainly after midnight. Rainfall totals are expected to
mainly stay below 0.25" tonight.

Went towards the warmer side of guidance lows tonight due to
abundant cloud cover to limit radiational cooling.

On Wednesday, most rain should end by 8 am, allowing for dry
weather and near to slightly above average temperatures. If
rain is heavy enough tonight to saturate the boundary layer, some
fog would be possible mainly during the morning hours across
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Did not mention fog
due to low confidence of occurrence. Clouds may be variable, but
overall, think skies will be mostly cloudy. Model guidance highs
in the 50s seem reasonable.

Thursday and Friday, temperatures will warm up, especially on
Friday when many locations may approach or exceed 70 degrees. The
warm temperatures combined with breezy west to southwest winds as
well as decreasing humidity may elevate fire weather concerns
slightly on Friday, though ERC values may be rather low due to
abundant ground moisture from recent heavy precipitation.

Saturday and Sunday, another storm system may bring additional
chances for rain to the area. Latest model forecast temperatures
suggested that the precipitation types will remain in liquid
form at the ground. Thunder may be possible as well. Above
average temperatures are forecast.

Next Monday and Tuesday appear to be dry with above average
temperatures across the region.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  39  54  41  61 /  70  10  10   0
Hobart OK         39  53  37  60 /  80  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  43  55  40  65 /  90  10  10   0
Gage OK           35  54  35  57 /  50  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  53  39  59 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         44  54  44  64 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/26



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