Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

Morning update focused mostly on sky cover grids.


The forecast is generally on track. Backdoor cold front is moving
into northern Oklahoma and continues on track to bring cooler
weather for this evening and tomorrow. Although the high clouds
across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas look rather thin on
satellite, there is enough to give observations sites a broken
cloud layer where obs are supplemented by humans /ksps and kdfw/
and we can see the cirrus out the window to the south. Although
not too significant, have increased sky cover across the south
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

12Z TAF discussion below.

A cold front will move across the area causing winds to shift to
the north and northeast today. VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

Patchy ground/river valley fog will be possible early this morning
in parts of South Central and Southeast OK. This is expected to
burn off by mid-morning.

A cold front will move across the region today bringing another
round of cooler temperatures to the area thursday and friday with
highs in the 70s. However, temperatures will likely be warm again
today with highs in the 80s most places due to the cooler air
filtering in later today and tonight. This frontal passage will be
dry with no rain expected.

Upper ridge will influence the region through the rest of the
week. Models show this ridge flattening over the weekend as
longwave trough moves into the Western U.S. and upper low remains
over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area. The GFS and ECMWF begin to
diverge early next week. The GFS is faster with the movement
eastward of the trough/upper low over the Western U.S. and
lifting the upper low into the Northern Plains by Tuesday
morning. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower with this system and has
the upper low centered over Southeast Colorado by Tuesday evening.
The timing and position of this system will have an affect on the
dryline position Tuesday afternoon and chances for showers/storms.
The GFS has the dryline extending across the fa Tuesday afternoon
while the ECMWF has it staying in the panhandle. Severe weather
could also be possible Tuesday with models showing sufficient CAPE
and shear, but where severe weather could be will also be dependent
on the timing/path of the upper system and position of the
dryline. With the uncertainties and differences in models, did not
deviate much in terms of PoPs from the initializations but where
thunderstorms and severe weather could be possible will likely
change as we get closer to early next week and hopefully the
models converge on a solution as to the timing/path of the storm
system and position of dryline. So for now have PoPs Monday night
into Wednesday for at least parts of the area.


Oklahoma City OK  84  51  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         87  51  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  54  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           84  48  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  47  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  54  76  52 /   0   0   0   0


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