Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The 06Z aviation discussion follows....


A cold front across central-southwest Kansas, combined with a
surface low pressure center over the Texas Panhandle, will bring
a complex weather pattern to Oklahoma/north Texas through the
forecast period. Surface winds will shift, or become variable, a
few hours before the front arrives at most sites, then shift more
definitively to the N-NE, with generally higher speeds. A
relatively narrow band of stratus, with bases probably between
1500 and 2500 ft, will be along/behind the front, while some
similar clouds are expected to form ahead of the front early this
morning across south-central and central Oklahoma. A few
thunderstorms are expected along the front, mainly east of I-35,
through the morning. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form after 21/00Z as the front stalls across Oklahoma
and western north Texas...while flow aloft pushes moist/unstable
air over the frontal surface.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

The 00z aviation discussion follows....

A cold front will move southeast across much of Oklahoma and into
the KSPS area of Texas between 00Z this evening and 00Z Thursday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and behind
the front overnight and Thursday, mainly east of KAVK-KJWG-KADH.
There may be a prefrontal wind shift in north-central Oklahoma,
including KPNC, and possibly even KOKC/KOUN, early Thursday, but
this is not currently shown in the TAFs because of the uncertainty
of occurrence. Low ceilings, mainly 1000-2000 ft, are expected
behind the front, with some slight improvement through the day.
Rain/storm chances will begin to increase shortly after the end
of the current TAF set, particularly for KOKC/KOUN-KCSM/KHBR.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

The main forecast challenges over the next 48-60 hours will be
the risk of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.

At mid afternoon, a few showers were noted over far northeast
Texas. Expect most of this precipitation will remain south and
east of Bryan and Atoka counties.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front in
Kansas this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered showers
and storms may enter northern Oklahoma, especially after
midnight with better chances across north central parts of
the state.

The front will continue south before stalling across south
central and southeast Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon. Clouds
will develop behind the front and widely scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms will remain possible Thursday.

Thursday evening and night, scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form as a trough approaches the
southern Plains. Models have been fairly consistent with the
development of mainly elevated storms over the northern half of
Oklahoma. Elevated instability will support the risk of large
hail along with a risk of heavy rainfall.

A Flood Watch will be issued this afternoon for parts of central
and north central Oklahoma. The watch will be in effect from 12 am
Friday through 12 am Saturday. Some areas may receive 3 to 4
inches of rain with higher totals possible.

On Friday, the stalled front is expected to lift northward perhaps
as far as I-40. This will certainly depend on convective trends
Thursday night into Friday. If storms can form along and near the
front Friday afternoon, severe storms will be possible. The window
of opportunity will be fairly short, as the front will push
quickly south and east late Friday afternoon and evening.

Much cooler and dry weather is expected over the weekend. Dry
weather will continue into early next week with warmer


Oklahoma City OK  65  71  57  69 /  10  30  80  70
Hobart OK         62  71  56  73 /  10  20  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  65  80  62  79 /   0  20  40  30
Gage OK           57  70  51  57 /  20   0  60  70
Ponca City OK     59  68  54  58 /  50  30  70  80
Durant OK         66  80  63  80 /   0  20  20  20


OK...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for



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